wolfie09 Posted November 10, 2019 Share Posted November 10, 2019 Wow the euro is pretty far west lol I may rain soon, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 10, 2019 Share Posted November 10, 2019 Any more west and I'm toast, need a 25 mile jog east lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 10, 2019 Share Posted November 10, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 10, 2019 Share Posted November 10, 2019 BUF maintained their same, conservative take on their early morning update. Verbatim 3-6” Hard to see their thinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted November 10, 2019 Share Posted November 10, 2019 While not issuing any watches at this time, the NWS has bumped up totals to 5" to 8" area wide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 10, 2019 Share Posted November 10, 2019 the NW trend is becoming a problem for Syracuse AND Rochester with a couple products. HRDPS and ICON (here). Not so much mixing as dry slotting. Surface LP near Erie. It’s always something. RGEM, NAM and GFS all look a bit more SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted November 10, 2019 Share Posted November 10, 2019 06z Euro, again there’s no Kuchie ratios, only 10:1 available. Burlington,VT NWS has already issued WSW off to our East so I would imagine ours should be coming this morning too, but who knows? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted November 10, 2019 Share Posted November 10, 2019 1 minute ago, WesterlyWx said: 06z Euro, again there’s no Kuchie ratios, only 10:1 available. Burlington,VT NWS has already issued WSW off to our East so I would imagine ours should be coming this morning too, but who knows? Yikes. The euro is turning this into a nothing burger near SYR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 10, 2019 Share Posted November 10, 2019 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted November 10, 2019 Share Posted November 10, 2019 Binghamton’s briefing shows the uncertainly... https://www.weather.gov/media/bgm/publicbrief.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cny rider Posted November 10, 2019 Share Posted November 10, 2019 I'm toast here in Otsego County. You western NY peeps are stealing our snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted November 10, 2019 Share Posted November 10, 2019 35 minutes ago, cny rider said: I'm toast here in Otsego County. You western NY peeps are stealing our snow! Hey you guys got your fair share in Nov 2016 when BGM got 30” from a Synoptic storm while BUF got nada. Lol. Of course I’m Kidding , but I don’t remember the last widespread synoptic storm in early November in BUF. 2016 missed to the SE and even the storm last year was not much in metro BUF with more about 15-20 miles south once you get up in elevation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted November 10, 2019 Share Posted November 10, 2019 7 hours ago, wolfie09 said: If that track materializes, I can see a warm nose, or boundry, making it's way up I-81. Most of KBGM's CWA would be a mix or even all rain down in PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 10, 2019 Share Posted November 10, 2019 The question is how far up 81 lol I'm 6 miles ese of exit 36 (Pulaski).. Right now my location is the cutoff point, at least on the European.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 10, 2019 Share Posted November 10, 2019 Nam not far off from the euro.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted November 10, 2019 Share Posted November 10, 2019 KBGM's AFD sounds quite positive for Syracuse to Utica...6-9", expecting mostly frozen or all snow mon night into tuesday with possibly significant lake snows around the thruway corridor tues/wed 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 10, 2019 Share Posted November 10, 2019 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted November 10, 2019 Share Posted November 10, 2019 9 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Nam not far off from the euro.. NAM has that mix line right on my doorstep for a while. Here's to hoping the further NW models are just a bit too leftward... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 10, 2019 Author Share Posted November 10, 2019 A few more ticks NW and we will have to worry about rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted November 10, 2019 Share Posted November 10, 2019 Just now, Syrmax said: NAM has that mix line right on my doorstep for a while. Here's to hoping the further NW models are just a bit too leftward... Locally for us I think there will be some elevation dependent periods early on that could be the difference between 4” and 7”. That said, the closer we get the better the lake enhancement is looking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 10, 2019 Share Posted November 10, 2019 U need to smell the taint, not taste just smell lol U can see the heaviest precipitation just west of the mix line.. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 10, 2019 Author Share Posted November 10, 2019 Just now, wolfie09 said: U need to smell the taint, not taste just smell lol U can see the heaviest precipitation just west of the mix line.. What about the last minute 50 mile NW jog that always taints us? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted November 10, 2019 Share Posted November 10, 2019 Just now, BuffaloWeather said: What about the last minute 50 mile NW jog that always taints us? I think things always tick SE at the end after mid range NW climbs. I’ve written a humorous article on this under the name MesoBanding on other forums. May need to break it out here with my local brethren. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 10, 2019 Share Posted November 10, 2019 Warmest frame on the 3k.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 10, 2019 Share Posted November 10, 2019 Fwiw the euro ensembles are a little east of the OP.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted November 10, 2019 Share Posted November 10, 2019 9 minutes ago, 96blizz said: I think things always tick SE at the end after mid range NW climbs. I’ve written a humorous article on this under the name MesoBanding on other forums. May need to break it out here with my local brethren. I'd be interested in seeing that as it is also my perception, having followed a lot of storms over the past 30+ years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted November 10, 2019 Share Posted November 10, 2019 5 minutes ago, Syrmax said: I'd be interested in seeing that as it is also my perception, having followed a lot of storms over the past 30+ years. Here it is. Written by and shared on multiple forums under my normal “MesoBanding” name just before the big 2016 storm near NYC. I was living in NW NJ at the time before moving full time to Skaneateles village (we have a camp out on the lake). A Guidebook to the Phases of an East Coast Snowstorm As we step into the morning of a nice snowfall for many, I thought I’d recap the phases we all just went through in an effort to remind ourselves how these play out. Every. Single. Time. But like watching your favorite comedy or horror movie – you’ll still laugh or cringe with each step along the way. We can’t help ourselves. It’s in our DNA. Phase 1: The Long Range. It has to originate somewhere, right? Usually someone will post a long range fantasy map of the GFS that shows a raging blizzard. You’ll see words like BECS, HECS, MECS and SECS thrown around at 360 hour maps. Deep down, we all know the odds of verification are less than the odds that some of you won’t be in your mom’s basement on Friday night – but yet you still believe. You just know this is the one time the globals sniffed something out that, via the Butterfly Effect, is likely a ripple in the atmosphere picked up by two eskimos humping in Siberia to keep warm. We track. Phase 2: The King Phase. Once we get to 240 hours, invariably there will be an 0z run when most of you are sleeping when the Euro, The King, spits out a solution like the above for the same eskimo humping ripple. But now we’re inside 10 days AND it’s the almighty Euro. THIS is it. THIS is the one that’s going to go 10 straight days without moving. But guess what asshats – it’s not a cutter – so it’s going to move 1,323 times before it gets here, if it ever does. We track harder. Phase 3: The Long-ish Range Phase. Somehow, someway – ALL of the models have shown the storm as a bomb at some point by about 180 hours. We’re getting closer. But we’re not. Not at all. But some knucklehead posts a CMC map that shows 54” of snow as a maxima and weenie’s weenies (or weenie-ets) are moving involuntarily. The GFS follows with a bomb a cycle or two later and some have full fledged boners (and even ‘jokingly’ post about it). The Euro, however, has refused to show the bomb it showed at 240 and stays nauseatingly off shore but close enough to know it will find its way back. Then – at just about 150 hours, the Euro decides it sees the storm again at 0z on a Tuesday night. The late night coverage was minimal, but by morning you have to sift through 345 pages of verifications that, indeed, the King showed our bomb. We rejoice. We track. We set ourselves up invariably for… Phase 4: The Weenie Suicide Phase, The Mid Range This is the phase that happens every time. Every. Single. Time. But it’s just as painful for all of us. Every model has shown our bomb by this time – and then every single model loses it out to sea – seemingly all at the same time! How? Why? What life choices could I have made differently so this didn’t happen? Why do cutters always cut? F*ck the Midwest. What good is snow for the ocean and fish? The GGEM sucks. The GFS is garbage. The Euro is NOT the same since it’s upgrade. This is the phase when you’ll get to learn all about the models of the world – our very own “Weenie Model Universe” contest. There’s a French Model; German; Korean; Japanese; and a Tanzanian. These get yanked out from places on the internet that will probably freeze your computer and offer you real porn (but you X out of that because you’d rather look at the model than that in case it shows our bomb again). Remember this: In the Mid Range, the JMA will stay amped; the NAVGEM will show a couple of bombs; the GFS will be so stubborn you want to bomb NCEP; and the Euro will likely stay fairly consistent with it’s solution. It’s also at this point some knucklehead starts posting the long range NAM, SREFs and RGEM – even though it’s like driving to work with Stevie Wonder at the wheel. You may get there, but your odds aren’t very good. Many will exclaim that they give up but we all know you’ll be there at every model cycle. Spirits are down, relationships with spouses are on the fritz, drinking picks up and children are neglected – until… Phase 5: The Short Range and the NW Trends Despite all of the heartache leading up to this point, this always happens. ALWAYS. The storm you saw at 240 on the Euro and on all the models at the Mid Range at some point – starts its inevitable NW climb. It’s never an all out bomb again. No, no, no weenies – it’s a slow and gradual change. A ‘tick’ as most of you would say. “The GFS is a tick NW but, aloft, it should have been better.” “The Euro is NW again but there should be room for more movement our way given the look of H5.” “The Jet Streak on the NAM begs for a deformation band on top of our heads. Still time.” “The German ticked West along with the French” (really? Who gives a flying donkey f*ck). It’s at this point that you’re happy again. You kiss your wife or girlfriend. The air smells fresher. You say hi to all of your neighbors while walking the dog. You even pick up their dog’s shit. Then, the day/night before the storm, the short range models like the NAM and RGEM show an all out hit. Meanwhile, the level-headed professionals at the NWS and other outlets get the snot kicked out of them by weather forums around the world. “What are they doing!?!?!” “Can’t they see what the RGEM just did?” “People are going to die at the hands of the NWS. Blood. Yes, blood, is on their hands.” Weenies post snow maps. There are contests for gift cards. Donations to the boards per inch (all of a sudden, because it’s going to snow, weenie’s normally tight wallets are like mini ATM machines). It is the eve before the snowstorm that you’ve tracked so tirelessly for 10 days now and there is bound to be a ‘Weenie baby boom’ 9 months from this night – our next generation of trackers are smaller than a snowflake and look like microscopic tadpoles – but they’ll be on these boards soon enough and neglecting to read this sage advice: Something is about to happen overnight…. Phase 6: The Last Minute SE Ticks You wake up having impregnated your spouse. You’re exhausted and hungover – but you don’t care because you went to bed with 9 versions of the NAM, the GEM-LAM, RGEM and 13 of the 9,913 SREF plumes showing you’re going to get smoked. You roll over out of bed and grab your charged phone or iPad (or both so you’re ready to track it inside all day versus going out and actually enjoying the fruits of your labor) and, O.M.G. The models ticked EAST? WTF!!!! HOW can this happen? (by the way, it f*cking happens EVERY time!!!). The NAM cut back for all areas, ESPECIALLY N and W. The RGEM is a shell of its former self. Meanwhile, the GFS has never budged (and will be wrong) and the Euro has stayed pretty consistent. But now you’re so pissed you want to reach into your partner’s private area and take back your future snow baby. This storm isn’t worth it. Then you look at the radar and, like being high on shrooms, you realize that the models are completely wrong. It’s snowing in Nipplehair, TN. No model had that!!! It’s snowing in Marryyourbrother, WV. Ha! Nothing was even close to that! But guess what? The models are going to be right and someone who thought they would see snow will be smoking cirrus. For most, it may just be a slight cutback – but it doesn’t feel like it. It’s the final gut punch of this wild ride but, alas, for most it will snow and will be beautiful and all of the above will have been worth it. So the next time we start tracking one of these bad boys from 360 hours out, give this a read and know it will evolve this way to a degree every single time. Cheers, Steve 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 10, 2019 Share Posted November 10, 2019 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 10, 2019 Share Posted November 10, 2019 9 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Brings a tear 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted November 10, 2019 Share Posted November 10, 2019 Lets just ride any and every model that keeps us all snow, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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