wolfie09 Posted November 8, 2019 Share Posted November 8, 2019 Some of the fluffiest stuff known to man is falling right now.. Really hoping the rgem has a clue which it usually does.. These can be sneaky events, light winds, super high ratios.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattny88 Posted November 9, 2019 Share Posted November 9, 2019 hey guys,so i live in the city of oswego and out of the nws buffalo AFD the sentence what caught my eye was "with a single plume of heavy snow likely across Oswego county".. with that said how much you think we are talking about..intensity wise of the band and the duration and snowfall amounts?...im assuming there will be a wnw or westerly component to the wind?? the city of oswego usually does will when the winds are lighter being we are right on the lake..some lake effect strorms tend to blow right over us..also was seeing if you guys could post an image or two of the models lake effect run for tuesday evening after the synoptic storm passes..thanks guys Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted November 9, 2019 Share Posted November 9, 2019 7 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: It was a hybrid storm. It mainly impacted central NY. Rochester had 15", Binghamton I believe had 30"? https://www.weather.gov/buf/lesEventArchive?season=2016-2017&event=A This was an awesome event as I remember it vividly! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted November 9, 2019 Share Posted November 9, 2019 That was a fun one got about 15 to 20 inches in rochester 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted November 9, 2019 Share Posted November 9, 2019 3 hours ago, wolfie09 said: Just so we know, the NWS is talking about southern Oswego county not the tug.."SE of the lake" Redfield only 30% chance of snow on Tuesday night.. Fulton 80%.. Bring it. Of course, were this in 24 hrs vs 3 days out, I'd be a bit excited. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted November 9, 2019 Share Posted November 9, 2019 No idea why but those 2 small bands have same general look, orientation as last night. Picked about 3/4" to freshen things up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 9, 2019 Share Posted November 9, 2019 Starting to see that wind shift.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted November 9, 2019 Share Posted November 9, 2019 I'm thinking if solutions converge by Sunday12z and Mon 00z runs it will make me a believer. Pretty much the only thing we'll see on saturday are take-the-football-away solutions and other such badness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted November 9, 2019 Share Posted November 9, 2019 Winds over the Lake are definitely backing and I wouldn't be surprised if a decent band develops on a Westerly flow. It should then continue to back eventually ending up WSWerly towards Watertown and as the HP continues to move over us it should squash it completely but this time of yr, knows as the Lake has a mind of its own, lol!Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted November 9, 2019 Share Posted November 9, 2019 Nam and gfs both coming in weaker and maybe slightly East. Just a meh blob of low pressure scooting off to our S and E and not that impressive of a precious shield when it’s so weak. Looking more like a 3-5” type event to me which is still a bonus this early in the season but think you can pretty much count out the warning criteria snows. We’ll see what the Euro says but weaker has definitely been the trend the last few runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted November 9, 2019 Share Posted November 9, 2019 Enjoy that band WolfieSent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted November 9, 2019 Share Posted November 9, 2019 10 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said: Nam and gfs both coming in weaker and maybe slightly East. Just a meh blob of low pressure scooting off to our S and E and not that impressive of a precious shield when it’s so weak. Looking more like a 3-5” type event to me which is still a bonus this early in the season but think you can pretty much count out the warning criteria snows. We’ll see what the Euro says but weaker has definitely been the trend the last few runs. I think we were always looking at 4 to 7 with higher amounts on the ridges and North and east of buffalo due to enhancement from Ontario. The ensembles still show about .4" to .9" area wide. The operational models will always hiccup. Now, I was just perusing the Mid Atlantic forum on their Oct Nov long term discussion. Couple of posters who I know are legit have discussed at great length with the help of other Mets a -NAO establishing itself towards Thanksgiving and lasting into early December. The MJO certainly agrees on its end according to the CPC and mentions, however, that the long range (think CFS etc) models disagree. If this holds true and comes to fruition then later next week's "warm up" to slightly below November averages will be a re-loading period and retrograding lows were discussed. I know if that happens there will be some chasing going on. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted November 9, 2019 Share Posted November 9, 2019 1 hour ago, Syrmax said: I'm thinking if solutions converge by Sunday12z and Mon 00z runs it will make me a believer. Pretty much the only thing we'll see on saturday are take-the-football-away solutions and other such badness. I mean the storm starts early Monday morning. I think we can lock something in sooner than 6 hours out. Haha. I thought the 0z runs tonight were encouraging for a good 4-8 inch type storm; which is a very respectable hit for mid November. Good enough for me at least. Seems like a somewhat long duration event with nam and gfs hinting at a particularly nice inverted trough right over WNY overnight into Tuesday which would keep us in the snow longer I dunno, I’m feeling Optimistic for once. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted November 9, 2019 Share Posted November 9, 2019 3 hours ago, DeltaT13 said: I mean the storm starts early Monday morning. I think we can lock something in sooner than 6 hours out. Haha. I thought the 0z runs tonight were encouraging for a good 4-8 inch type storm; which is a very respectable hit for mid November. Good enough for me at least. Seems like a somewhat long duration event with nam and gfs hinting at a particularly nice inverted trough right over WNY overnight into Tuesday which would keep us in the snow longer I dunno, I’m feeling Optimistic for once. 00z Euro looks good. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 9, 2019 Share Posted November 9, 2019 1 hour ago, WesterlyWx said: 00z Euro looks good. She’s been consistent. Just when I’m ready to walk, she drags me back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted November 9, 2019 Share Posted November 9, 2019 6z GFS is same track and QPF output...latest AFD actually says the models have honed in on a track that would leave the CWA in the NW flank deformation zone late Monday into Monday night which will lead to several inches of accumulation with significant accumulations not out of the question... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 9, 2019 Share Posted November 9, 2019 Fresh blanket of snow overnight, finished with 3" locally...Good thing it snowed just before the in-laws get to town 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 9, 2019 Share Posted November 9, 2019 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_rules Posted November 9, 2019 Share Posted November 9, 2019 It’s looking like this next snow event will miss us in the northern Catskills, but for now it is a beautiful wintery morning in early November. 6° and about 1.5in of snow making for a classic winter scene outside. Nearly full moon and clear skies last night made it look almost like daylight! Kids are going to try sledding when it warms up a little bit. For now we’re inside watching cartoons by the fire! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted November 9, 2019 Share Posted November 9, 2019 06z Euro. Mind you this is 10:1 so does not include ratios like the Kuchie maps I post for 00z/12z. Most important thing is a widespread 1/2”-3/4” of QPF. This looks like a high end advisory event to me which is awesome for the first half of November. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 9, 2019 Author Share Posted November 9, 2019 9" without an advisory for Oswego overnight. Was at a buddys poker tournament last night( I won ), driving home around 3 am there was some nice snow in that band off erie. Visibility was under a mile at times. ...New York... ...Oswego County... 4 N Central Square 9.0 in 0100 PM 11/08 Trained Spotter 4 NW Constantia 6.5 in 0900 AM 11/08 Broadcast Media 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted November 9, 2019 Share Posted November 9, 2019 NAM looks pretty juicy. This seems an area wide 4-7” up here. Fabulous start - especially given how beautiful the flakes have been for this time of year! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 9, 2019 Share Posted November 9, 2019 Im hoping we get a trend in the other direction. Models showing elevation and lake enhanced signatures. We need a robust storm to overcome its early season nature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 9, 2019 Share Posted November 9, 2019 Models aren't cutting this through SW PA into SE NY anymore.. Heaviest precipitation stays east.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 9, 2019 Share Posted November 9, 2019 Ukmet started this trend yesterday at 12z.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted November 9, 2019 Share Posted November 9, 2019 If the current tracks hold I believe by tomorrow am we will all be under a winter storm watch for Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted November 9, 2019 Share Posted November 9, 2019 4 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Models aren't cutting this through SW PA into SE NY anymore.. Heaviest precipitation stays east.. It's the NAM it does NAM things... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 9, 2019 Share Posted November 9, 2019 1 minute ago, Thinksnow18 said: If the current tracks hold I believe by tomorrow am we will all be under a winter storm watch for Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning. I’m surprised by your optimism. But it makes me hopeful. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 9, 2019 Share Posted November 9, 2019 It fits within the consensus, uk/ecm/gfs/Ggem etc.. Can't just discount it lol That obviously doesn't mean it's correct verbatim.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted November 9, 2019 Share Posted November 9, 2019 9 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: I’m surprised by your optimism. But it makes me hopeful. Agree. I think it’s a solid area wide WWA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now