BuffaloWeather Posted November 8, 2019 Author Share Posted November 8, 2019 Euro is WSW for all of of WNY into Tug. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted November 8, 2019 Share Posted November 8, 2019 Its been awhile since I've seen Canada this snow covered this early in the year. Impressive stuff. I hope it can help build a cold BIAS on this side of the hemisphere. https://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/chart_daily.php?ui_year=2019&ui_day=309&ui_set=0 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 8, 2019 Share Posted November 8, 2019 Nice consensus for 3 days out, still waiting for that last minute shift lol.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 8, 2019 Share Posted November 8, 2019 Just now, wolfie09 said: Nice consensus for 3 days out, still waiting for that last minute shift lol.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 8, 2019 Share Posted November 8, 2019 Hey Wolfie, I’m not seeing some of your posted images? They won’t load. It doesn’t matter if I’m using the App (Tapatalk) or my browser. Anyone else? Any suggestions? Everyone else’s material is coming across. I think. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted November 8, 2019 Share Posted November 8, 2019 33 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Hey Wolfie, I’m not seeing some of your posted images? They won’t load. It doesn’t matter if I’m using the App (Tapatalk) or my browser. Anyone else? Any suggestions? Everyone else’s material is coming across. I think. . i see them fine...windows laptop and Android phone...no app. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 8, 2019 Share Posted November 8, 2019 1 minute ago, Syrmax said: i see them fine...windows laptop and Android phone...no app. Hmmm. Working off iPhone here. I’ll bet Wolfie has Android or Windows.Or my settings are screwed up (most likely). I’m reminded, on a daily basis, what a moron I am with the tech. Lol. I used to swear by Apple because everything just worked- I think Android has achieved that distinction now. Thanks Syrmax. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted November 8, 2019 Share Posted November 8, 2019 8 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Hmmm. Working off iPhone here. I’ll bet Wolfie has Android or Windows.Or my settings are screwed up (most likely). I’m reminded, on a daily basis, what a moron I am with the tech. Lol. I used to swear by Apple because everything just worked- I think Android has achieved that distinction now. Thanks Syrmax. I'm on an iphone and it all looks normal to me. What browser are you using? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted November 8, 2019 Share Posted November 8, 2019 12z Euro for those interested. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted November 8, 2019 Share Posted November 8, 2019 10 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said: 12z Euro for those interested. I wonder if we see winter storm watches issued tomorrow for northern Indiana-Michigan and Ohio. Environment Canada issued their first map with 2-4" across most of southern Ontario with 4-6" in Niagara and eastern Ontario. Im guessing special weather statements issued for us tomorrow. Environment Canada is normally very hesitant to put out watches, especially since it would cause "panic" in Toronto haha Also for a watch the event would need to be 6" + here which right now they arent calling for Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted November 8, 2019 Share Posted November 8, 2019 5 minutes ago, mississaugasnow said: I wonder if we see winter storm watches issued tomorrow for northern Indiana-Michigan and Ohio. Environment Canada issued their first map with 2-4" across most of southern Ontario with 4-6" in Niagara and eastern Ontario. Im guessing special weather statements issued for us tomorrow. Environment Canada is normally very hesitant to put out watches, especially since it would cause "panic" in Toronto haha Also for a watch the event would need to be 6" + here which right now they arent calling for As it creeps closer - I imagine ratios would go down. I wouldn’t be shocked to see an event not all too dissimilar to what we just saw despite the pretty maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted November 8, 2019 Share Posted November 8, 2019 6 minutes ago, mississaugasnow said: I wonder if we see winter storm watches issued tomorrow for northern Indiana-Michigan and Ohio. Environment Canada issued their first map with 2-4" across most of southern Ontario with 4-6" in Niagara and eastern Ontario. Im guessing special weather statements issued for us tomorrow. Environment Canada is normally very hesitant to put out watches, especially since it would cause "panic" in Toronto haha Also for a watch the event would need to be 6" + here which right now they arent calling for So if you read the AFD for KBUF it STILL downplays this storm calling the 12z euro an outlier still and that this is going to be an off coast low??? WTF??? A little too early for the spiked egg nog boys... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted November 8, 2019 Share Posted November 8, 2019 6 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: So if you read the AFD for KBUF it STILL downplays this storm calling the 12z euro an outlier still and that this is going to be an off coast low??? WTF??? A little too early for the spiked egg nog boys... It's downright bizarre at this point. Either they are incompetent or waiting to make a completely new forecast after the 0z runs tonight. There is very reasonable model consensus at this point yet they keep recycling that same erroneous blurb about Mondays event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 8, 2019 Share Posted November 8, 2019 Euro with a big ice storm day 8/9.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeyes_Suck Posted November 8, 2019 Share Posted November 8, 2019 Just now, wolfie09 said: Euro with a big ice storm day 8/9.. winter of 76 started with a big ice storm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 8, 2019 Share Posted November 8, 2019 I'm sure it will say something different when it's updated between 330-430 pm.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 8, 2019 Share Posted November 8, 2019 They are obviously expecting snow lol Veterans Day A chance of snow before 8am, then rain and snow likely. Cloudy, with a high near 35. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Monday Night Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 23. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Tuesday Frequent snow showers. High near 29. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Tuesday Night A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 17. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 8, 2019 Author Share Posted November 8, 2019 Too lazy to update the forecast discussion smh. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted November 8, 2019 Share Posted November 8, 2019 26 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Too lazy to update the forecast discussion smh. Ok the 255 report is updated and it now includes ploeable snow Monday night and Tuesday for the whole CWA 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 8, 2019 Share Posted November 8, 2019 1 hour ago, DeltaT13 said: I'm on an iphone and it all looks normal to me. What browser are you using? Now it’s there. So weird. Slow internet maybe. Cellular data is on. Frustrating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 8, 2019 Share Posted November 8, 2019 Energy within the southern branch of a split mid level flow will track from the Lower Mississippi Valley to the Mid Atlantic region during the day Monday. This will energize a surface wave that will move along the aforementioned initial cold front...with the increasingly organized sfc low forecast to over Pennsylvania by Monday evening. As this wave approaches Pennsylvania...synoptic lift will strengthen over our forecast area. The two main sources of lift at this point will be provided by a powerful 150kt H25 jet over southern Ontario and increased H925-70 baroclinic forcing (mainly north of the Southern Tier). Have thus ramped by pops to categorical for all but the Eastern Lake Ontario region for Monday. The precipitation type will largely depend on the track of the sfc low...which at this point should be far enough to our south to allow for some wet snow to accumulate an inch or two over the far western counties...and also across the Eastern Lake Ontario region. Any deviation from the current forecast track will significantly alter these amounts. The well defined surface low is forecast to track from Pennsylvania to the coast of New England Monday night. While colder air will naturally push south across our forecast area in its wake...the cold air will be accompanied by a secondary arctic front that will introduce the coldest airmass of the very young season. Of more importance at this point though is that the deepening cold air on the backside of the system will allow moderately heavy pcpn within a deformation zone to spread across most of our forecast area. While it is too early to get a solid handle on snow accumulations... amounts in excess of four inches look very reasonable. This would translate into a plowable snowfall Monday night...with the highest accumulations/snowfall rates likely for the Southern Tier...and the Finger Lakes and Eastern Lake Ontario regions. This early season snowfall potential has already been highlighted in the HWO product and will continue to be so. Tuesday will be a day of transition...as the synoptic storm system will exit across the Canadian maritimes while sub arctic air will deepen across our forecast area. This will allow the widespread synoptic based snow to become more localized southeast of both lakes...where lake effect snow will blossom in the -16c H85 air. Several additional inches of snow can then be anticipated in the typical snowbelts of the Southern Tier and between Rochester and Syracuse. Otherwise it will be a brisk and cold day with temperatures not climbing out of the 20s. Northwest winds gusting to 25 mph will produce wind chill values in the teens throughout the day. Accumulating lake snows will then be focused southeast of both lakes Tuesday night...as the axis of a large surface high will move from the Upper Great Lakes to the Ohio Valley. Moderate to heavy lake snow will be found over Chautauqua and western Cattaraugus counties...with a single plume of heavy snow likely across Oswego county. Meanwhile...flurries and light snow showers will be possible most elsewhere with the mercury tumbling into the teens. At these levels...temperatures will be roughly 20 degrees below mid November norms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 8, 2019 Share Posted November 8, 2019 Oswego teeing up for some post storm action? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxNoob Posted November 8, 2019 Share Posted November 8, 2019 Feels like this thing is gonna trend flatter and weaker before it's all said and done. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 8, 2019 Author Share Posted November 8, 2019 The only thing I heard is single band Oswego. I may be driving there next week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 8, 2019 Author Share Posted November 8, 2019 That's 2' across the Chautauqua ridge. That may be a better spot than the tug. Only a 25-30 minute drive instead of a few hours. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 8, 2019 Share Posted November 8, 2019 Ukmet is also the farthest east model after days of it showing an inland solution.. Hopefully just a blip lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted November 8, 2019 Share Posted November 8, 2019 Well if we want to cherry pick a single analog point, Rochester just tied a daily low max temp today at 31. The last time was 1976. The infamous 76/77 winter........ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 8, 2019 Share Posted November 8, 2019 Just so we know, the NWS is talking about southern Oswego county not the tug.."SE of the lake" Redfield only 30% chance of snow on Tuesday night.. Fulton 80%.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted November 8, 2019 Share Posted November 8, 2019 Not only is it further east, but its a stingy 1014mb low. Gross. 6 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Ukmet is also the farthest east model after days of it showing an inland solution.. Hopefully just a blip lol 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 8, 2019 Share Posted November 8, 2019 17 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: That's 2' across the Chautauqua ridge. That may be a better spot than the tug. Only a 25-30 minute drive instead of a few hours. Not a great signature for an area-wide storm. I’m not big on this one (which means it’ll be a blockbuster). I’m expecting something between yesterday’s event and what’s currently being modeled. A 2-4,3-6” deal seems about right. Which would be fun anyway. I’m trying to avoid getting ramped up about anything that’s 4 days out. We all know how much can change in that window. Yesterday looked great 4 days out and most of us ended up with a dusting. Interesting that UKmet is keying in on the Chautauqua ridge this far out- detecting upslope LES. I wonder if it also got a rez upgrade this summer? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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