lakeeffectkid383 Posted November 8, 2019 Share Posted November 8, 2019 2 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Euro is farther west and warmer..First half of the event we fight mixing/rain.. Yep, only about 1/2” QPF now as frozen and ratios aren’t as high as temps don’t really fall till middle to late part of the event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted November 8, 2019 Share Posted November 8, 2019 06z GFS has a huge shift West. Puts the goods right over our forum but not much wiggle room so let’s lock it in. Any further west and we all taint for a good part of the storm. As is now though this would be a nice 4-8” system. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted November 8, 2019 Share Posted November 8, 2019 Yes it definitely looks like both the Euro and the GOOFUS are coming into pretty good agreement. Almost too good this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted November 8, 2019 Share Posted November 8, 2019 8 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: Yes it definitely looks like both the Euro and the GOOFUS are coming into pretty good agreement. Almost too good this far out. Yep I’d rather not be in the bullseye 96 hours out. It’s likely gonna change if only 50-100 miles E or W and like I said yesterday that could be all the difference. Intresting we went from talking about frigid temps with high ratios to it possibly missing us off to the E to rain possibly mixing in just 24 hours. Again I’m waiting until Saturday night/Sunday morning before getting excited as there’s just too much to go wrong this far out with a system like this. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 8, 2019 Share Posted November 8, 2019 Sws issued for this band, 1 inch an hour stuff.. It's been chilling just to my south for a while now lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted November 8, 2019 Share Posted November 8, 2019 I caught the southwestern band...total of 3" IMBY. We had 0.75" from yesterday. Good start to 2019/20. It won't be a shutout. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 8, 2019 Author Share Posted November 8, 2019 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted November 8, 2019 Share Posted November 8, 2019 is that a forecast for 6 days out? why would they attempt precision down to the tenths of an inch on a 3-6 day forecast? Just spitting out some random model output? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 8, 2019 Share Posted November 8, 2019 Nam now in it's wheelhouse.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted November 8, 2019 Share Posted November 8, 2019 I'm starting to get a little more confident in a solution that all the major models are showing. We might get a mix towards the finger lakes for a time so if the track continues as it is currently modeled the totals could be higher...still 24 to 36 hours out to feel comfortable and at that time a winter storm watch might be talked about Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 8, 2019 Author Share Posted November 8, 2019 Just now, Thinksnow18 said: I'm starting to get a little more confident in a solution that all the major models are showing. We might get a mix towards the finger lakes for a time so if the track continues as it is currently modeled the totals could be higher...still 24 to 36 hours out to feel comfortable and at that time a winter storm watch might be talked about Yeah looks like a long duration event from Monday into Weds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted November 8, 2019 Share Posted November 8, 2019 I got smashed very early this morning for at least 4-5 hrs straight and we're sitting with 5" new for the night with a total of 6.5" including the 1.5" from yesterday makes this our first appetizer of this super young season! Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted November 8, 2019 Share Posted November 8, 2019 Looks absolutely gorgeous out there, seriously, with the dim sun shining and its not melting anything, lol! I love this time of yr from now, until the time starts to reverse, and we head for longer days, yuck!Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted November 8, 2019 Share Posted November 8, 2019 5 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Yeah looks like a long duration event from Monday into Weds. Over here in the Greater Toronto area and Niagara we have a bit more wiggle room for the west but not a lot for the east. Should be a fun next few days. Definitely did not think we would be model watching like this in early-mid November Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 8, 2019 Share Posted November 8, 2019 We could see a couple/few inches tonight as the band reorganizes and winds back Westerly.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 8, 2019 Author Share Posted November 8, 2019 1 minute ago, mississaugasnow said: Over here in the Greater Toronto area and Niagara we have a bit more wiggle room for the west but not a lot for the east. Should be a fun next few days. Definitely did not think we would be model watching like this in early-mid November Last mid Nov we had a large storm as well ..Allegany County... Andover 12.0 530 AM 11/16 Social Media ...Cayuga County... Port Byron 15.0 555 AM 11/16 Social Media ...Chautauqua County... Jamestown 6.2 633 AM 11/16 Trained Spotter Fredonia 4.0 300 AM 11/16 Trained Spotter ...Erie County... Sardinia 8.5 649 AM 11/16 TRAINED SPOTTER ...Livingston County... Lima 11.5 500 AM 11/16 Trained Spotter Conesus 10.0 523 AM 11/16 Broadcast Media ...Monroe County... 2 S Fairport 9.5 613 AM 11/16 Trained Spotter Penfield 8.0 620 AM 11/16 Trained Spotter ...Ontario County... Bristol 12.0 634 AM 11/16 Social Media ...Wayne County... Williamson 10.0 523 AM 11/16 Broadcast Media ...Wyoming County... 4 W Warsaw 14.0 627 AM 11/16 Trained Spotter I believe in 2016 central NY had a massive Mid November storm and we all know what happened in Nov 2014. Nov is a winter month around here. December on the other hand... 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted November 8, 2019 Share Posted November 8, 2019 Its Friday, the system is pegged for Monday-Wednesday so how much do you guys actually think this system is gonna move to? 200 miles east and wiff, nah, or 100 miles further West and we taint, that's a better possibility but this system isn't going anywhere this far out, so I wouldn't be to to concerned 3 days out as our Globals are well in range and have been for couple days now. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted November 8, 2019 Share Posted November 8, 2019 12z GFS is the perfect track for almost the entire forum unless your in the southern tier where there will be some mixing issues. Puts down between 8-12” region wide depending on if you use 10:1 or Kuchie ratios. Only 18 more runs to go! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted November 8, 2019 Share Posted November 8, 2019 The next week should be exciting but who really knows going forward. You know my take on Cold Wet November and the following 3 months so we just might be seeingbbn it again for the 3rd time in the last 5 yrs, Nuts! Last real cold-frigid Winter was 2014-15 and the rest meh. NAO loves to visit us during the Warm months, lol, and goes Positive during the Winter, weird? Who knows but I know sustained cold and snow this time of yr is NOT a good thing but we'll see!Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted November 8, 2019 Share Posted November 8, 2019 The NAM should start to become more and more interesting as well as the WRF as we get closer and closer to the event. EURO and GFS are in lock step with each other. How's the UKMET lookin. I think the ICON has been leading the way with this one, No?Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted November 8, 2019 Share Posted November 8, 2019 51 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Last mid Nov we had a large storm as well ..Allegany County... Andover 12.0 530 AM 11/16 Social Media ...Cayuga County... Port Byron 15.0 555 AM 11/16 Social Media ...Chautauqua County... Jamestown 6.2 633 AM 11/16 Trained Spotter Fredonia 4.0 300 AM 11/16 Trained Spotter ...Erie County... Sardinia 8.5 649 AM 11/16 TRAINED SPOTTER ...Livingston County... Lima 11.5 500 AM 11/16 Trained Spotter Conesus 10.0 523 AM 11/16 Broadcast Media ...Monroe County... 2 S Fairport 9.5 613 AM 11/16 Trained Spotter Penfield 8.0 620 AM 11/16 Trained Spotter ...Ontario County... Bristol 12.0 634 AM 11/16 Social Media ...Wayne County... Williamson 10.0 523 AM 11/16 Broadcast Media ...Wyoming County... 4 W Warsaw 14.0 627 AM 11/16 Trained Spotter I believe in 2016 central NY had a massive Mid November storm and we all know what happened in Nov 2014. Nov is a winter month around here. December on the other hand... I cant recall 2016, but last year and this year are acting very similar almost to the date. November 9th 2018 I recorded the first slushy 2cm, November 15th I recorded 11cm of snow. This year is a few days ahead with yesterday getting slushy snow and now tracking a bigger system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted November 8, 2019 Share Posted November 8, 2019 Not getting above freezing this time of yr is very impressive to say the least. This time of yr is equivalent to the first week of May, lol, the difference being the Sun angle, which is in our favor during the Late Fall, Early Winter!Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 8, 2019 Share Posted November 8, 2019 Agree. The 12z GFS would be great. It shows the LP intensifying (Just enough) as it enters CNY. A little less progressive. A little less open. It would be fun. Perfect location for most of the forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 8, 2019 Share Posted November 8, 2019 Nice track on the cmc, pretty similar to the gfs.. Not sure I buy the lack of precipitation on the nw side.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 8, 2019 Share Posted November 8, 2019 Just now, wolfie09 said: Nice track on the cmc, pretty similar to the gfs.. Not sure I buy the lack of precipitation on the nw side.. Gfs at same time.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 8, 2019 Share Posted November 8, 2019 Either way we take lol At 10-1 region wide 6"-12.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 8, 2019 Share Posted November 8, 2019 Pretty locked in. It’s still got time to drift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 8, 2019 Share Posted November 8, 2019 Yesterday. We picked up another inch over night. I’m sure someone south of the finger lakes is getting a huge micro climate dump. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cny rider Posted November 8, 2019 Share Posted November 8, 2019 I'm not feeling this one yet. That track looks like trouble for those of us to the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 8, 2019 Author Share Posted November 8, 2019 1 hour ago, mississaugasnow said: I cant recall 2016, but last year and this year are acting very similar almost to the date. November 9th 2018 I recorded the first slushy 2cm, November 15th I recorded 11cm of snow. This year is a few days ahead with yesterday getting slushy snow and now tracking a bigger system. It was a hybrid storm. It mainly impacted central NY. Rochester had 15", Binghamton I believe had 30"? https://www.weather.gov/buf/lesEventArchive?season=2016-2017&event=A 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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