BuffaloWeather Posted November 7, 2019 Author Share Posted November 7, 2019 Who is that guy and where did he get those analogs from? Most are not using those analog years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 7, 2019 Author Share Posted November 7, 2019 The analog years I've seen are 1932, 1937 and 1950, 1968 and 1969, 1986 and 1990 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 7, 2019 Author Share Posted November 7, 2019 2014-2015 is a pretty close analog too. https://wsbt.com/news/local/forecasting-the-winter-of-2019-2020-11-01-2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 7, 2019 Share Posted November 7, 2019 Icon really far west with the initial wave which it has been the last several runs.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted November 7, 2019 Share Posted November 7, 2019 12 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: Probably the most accurate winter forecast poster on this forum. http://www.lightinthestorm.com/ Jesus Christ that dude is trying a little too hard. The words he uses in that abstract are completely ridiculous and unnecessary (An abstract is a supposed to be a short, clean, and usually simple summary of a more complex paper). I pride myself on a larger than average vocabulary and that guy pulled out a dozen words I have rarely if ever seen used. He may be smart, he may even be right with his forecast, but he comes across like like a clown trying way too hard to impress people. congruous derogate putative redolent diminution exogenous vicissitudes felicitous evince multifarious veridical apocryphal 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted November 7, 2019 Share Posted November 7, 2019 First flakes of the season! Officially in the mood now!After today’s coating of slush looks like our next time to watch at least in the metro area will be Saturday AM. Winds will back to the W and then SW and might give us a couple hour window to see a band form over Lake Erie and swing north through the city. Probably won’t amount to anything but at least something to keep an eye on. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 7, 2019 Author Share Posted November 7, 2019 4 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said: Jesus Christ that dude is trying a little too hard. The words he uses in that abstract are completely ridiculous and unnecessary (An abstract is a supposed to be a short, clean, and usually simple summary of a more complex paper). I pride myself on a larger than average vocabulary and that guy pulled out a dozen words I have rarely if ever seen used. He may be smart, he may even be right with his forecast, but he comes across like like a clown trying way too hard to impress people. congruous derogate putative redolent diminution exogenous vicissitudes felicitous evince multifarious veridical apocryphal I agree with most on here, it's virtually impossible to predict long term snow totals around here. Was anyone predicting 35" for Buffalo in 2011-2012? Unless is a huge anomaly like a really strong Nino or Nina. Where the pacific flow dominates the winter or a large SE ridge. During those years you can usually go below normal with snowfall and above normal temps. Weak/Neutral years is a guess as usually other climate controls manipulate the weather such as MJO/AO/Tropical systems/etc... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted November 7, 2019 Share Posted November 7, 2019 12 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: First flakes of the season! Officially in the mood now! After today’s coating of slush looks like our next time to watch at least in the metro area will be Saturday AM. Winds will back to the W and then SW and might give us a couple hour window to see a band form over Lake Erie and swing north through the city. Probably won’t amount to anything but at least something to keep an eye on. . Just leaving North Tonawanda and it's almost snowing moderately...flake size has increased and slushy coatings on everything but the roads... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 7, 2019 Share Posted November 7, 2019 12z gfs is suppressed, what's new . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 7, 2019 Author Share Posted November 7, 2019 3 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: 12z gfs is suppressed, what's new . Toss the goofus, euro is king. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted November 7, 2019 Share Posted November 7, 2019 Transitioning to snow here in Skaneateles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 7, 2019 Author Share Posted November 7, 2019 Light snow all morning here, not really sticking though. But it's very picturesque. Really good flake size, snow is beautiful. This winter should be fun with a few new posters! Very active already Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted November 7, 2019 Share Posted November 7, 2019 42 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said: Jesus Christ that dude is trying a little too hard. The words he uses in that abstract are completely ridiculous and unnecessary (An abstract is a supposed to be a short, clean, and usually simple summary of a more complex paper). I pride myself on a larger than average vocabulary and that guy pulled out a dozen words I have rarely if ever seen used. He may be smart, he may even be right with his forecast, but he comes across like like a clown trying way too hard to impress people. congruous derogate putative redolent diminution exogenous vicissitudes felicitous evince multifarious veridical apocryphal Spot on! I was amused at first, then found it hard to keep reading without getting angry. Anyway..."real" snow falling in Lancaster. Pretty good size flakes and sticking on vegetation nicely. Evergreens are frosted. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted November 7, 2019 Share Posted November 7, 2019 2 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Light snow all morning here, not really sticking though. But it's very picturesque. Really good flake size, snow is beautiful. This winter should be fun with a few new posters! Very active already Just perused the ensembles for the EPS and GEFS and both still show the storm track and precipitation values are on target for next week. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 7, 2019 Author Share Posted November 7, 2019 55 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said: Jesus Christ that dude is trying a little too hard. The words he uses in that abstract are completely ridiculous and unnecessary (An abstract is a supposed to be a short, clean, and usually simple summary of a more complex paper). I pride myself on a larger than average vocabulary and that guy pulled out a dozen words I have rarely if ever seen used. He may be smart, he may even be right with his forecast, but he comes across like like a clown trying way too hard to impress people. congruous derogate putative redolent diminution exogenous vicissitudes felicitous evince multifarious veridical apocryphal He should of used some more quid pro quo in his forecast, don't you think? It's all the rage now a days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 7, 2019 Share Posted November 7, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 7, 2019 Share Posted November 7, 2019 Just now, wolfie09 said: Lock it in! Perfect track. She goes negative if ya squint. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 7, 2019 Share Posted November 7, 2019 I’m glad some of you spoke up about that ridiculous seasonal forecast. I’ve been thinking about it and I think it comes down to snootiness. There are probably only a few people, in the field, who could actually understand everyone of those terms. I probably agree that we’re due a lower snowfall year but it’s based on a gut feeling and nothin else. Last year looked good for Roc but only on paper. It didn’t really feel like an above ave season (or even average). Everything ended up anemic. Hope we can get a surprise or two- something that over performs. Currently enjoying our first snowflakes! Love it!!! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted November 7, 2019 Share Posted November 7, 2019 Hey doesn't the Euro run the same four times the GOOFUS does??? Im only seeing the 00z on pivotal weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 7, 2019 Share Posted November 7, 2019 It does but 6/18z only runs to hr 90 on a few select paid sites.. 12z is starting up now on pivotal.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted November 7, 2019 Share Posted November 7, 2019 Still on the map but maybe a touch SE and a little weaker than the 00z and still putting out anywhere from .4 to .9 of QPF for the 24 hour period which with temps in the lower 20's would equate to ratios of 12 to 1 to even 15 to 1...5" to about a foot in some of the higher elevations and lake enhanced areas. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 7, 2019 Share Posted November 7, 2019 Yup but very little lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 7, 2019 Author Share Posted November 7, 2019 Moderate snow here, everything is plastered in white. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 7, 2019 Author Share Posted November 7, 2019 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 7, 2019 Author Share Posted November 7, 2019 Euro has a nice SW flow LES event hours 160-180. The Canadian has it as well during same timeframe. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted November 7, 2019 Share Posted November 7, 2019 8 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Euro has a nice SW flow LES event hours 160-180. The Canadian has it as well during same timeframe. So that would be wednesday-thursday timeframe??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 7, 2019 Author Share Posted November 7, 2019 10 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: So that would be wednesday-thursday timeframe??? Yeah, weds-fri. Pretty far out there but worth watching. Temps are marginally cold enough at that time for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 7, 2019 Share Posted November 7, 2019 Anyone see the radar for Altmar? Me neither.. Coming down decent right now, big fluffy flakes, must be the back edge.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted November 7, 2019 Share Posted November 7, 2019 Starting to see some consistency on euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted November 7, 2019 Share Posted November 7, 2019 Anyone got euro map with ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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