rochesterdave Posted November 5, 2019 Share Posted November 5, 2019 Models took a step in wrong direction accumulation wise. It’s gonna be stretched out and weak. This early.... gonna be tough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 5, 2019 Share Posted November 5, 2019 And that's why the snowmap looks like it does lol Just like I mentioned yesterday with the nam and a bunch of euro ensemble members...Must be a warm tongue somewhere.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 5, 2019 Share Posted November 5, 2019 Canadian says what snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 5, 2019 Share Posted November 5, 2019 Hwo Low pressure passing by to the south of the region will produce widespread snow Thursday and Thursday evening. Temperatures will be marginal for accumulation during this event, so there remains some uncertainty with respect to snow amounts. At this time, only light accumulation is expected at lower elevations, with several inches possible across the higher terrain south of the Thruway and east of Lake Ontario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 5, 2019 Share Posted November 5, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted November 5, 2019 Share Posted November 5, 2019 No snow is the way to go. Our avg for Nov is 9.6" and we are sure to get there but I doubt we see a blockbuster on a NW-WNW flow regime like the last 2 yrs, I hope not anyway, but that's just me. Let the flakes start flying in abundance Dec 1st through April 1st !and I'll be happy come Spring or I'll be ready at least for some sun and warmth!Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 5, 2019 Share Posted November 5, 2019 Yeah. This one shit the bed. Oh well. We’ve got dozens more. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted November 5, 2019 Share Posted November 5, 2019 I'll just be happy when I get my first frost/hard freeze later this week. Too many trees still holding leaves in my neighborhood. I want to get this lawn cleanup DONE already! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted November 5, 2019 Share Posted November 5, 2019 Did anyone else notice those intense MESO lows that the 6z GFS popped over 3 of the Great lakes under that super cold and deep arctic air next week? I really didnt think the GFS had the resolution to do something like that. Pretty damn interesting. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 5, 2019 Share Posted November 5, 2019 Always have the next one guys Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted November 5, 2019 Share Posted November 5, 2019 Always got the next one guys Looks like the big cities get in on the action as well, at least on the EURO, well before Thanksgiving, and that's a rarity, in and of itself! Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted November 5, 2019 Share Posted November 5, 2019 Theres no getting around the Fact that we're gonna get some wicked squall lines coming through next week with these strong Arctic Fronts so it's gonna snow, its inevitable but the question remains, how much?Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted November 5, 2019 Share Posted November 5, 2019 Just now, CNY-LES FREAK said: Theres no getting around the Fact that we're gonna get some wicked squall lines coming through next week with these strong Arctic Fronts so it's gonna snow, its inevitable but the question remains, how much? Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk That type of cold air with the very warm lakes will produce all sorts of interesting stuff. The front itself, LES, and multiple meso lows... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted November 5, 2019 Share Posted November 5, 2019 Just now, CNY-LES FREAK said: Theres no getting around the Fact that we're gonna get some wicked squall lines coming through next week with these strong Arctic Fronts so it's gonna snow, its inevitable but the question remains, how much? Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Agreed. And if we can get that Low to blow up and retrograde enough after being blocked there could some crazy wind blown totals further enhanced by the lakes. Fun times ahead and it’s only early November! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted November 5, 2019 Share Posted November 5, 2019 As Delta so eloquently reminded us, that if one of these Mesos comes through, and comes through slow, they can drop 6" in a couple hrs so we're in for some exciting times come next week by this time! These Arctic Fronts are sometimes better than most of the swfe we see during the Winter season, lol! Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 6, 2019 Author Share Posted November 6, 2019 Models took a turn for the worse eh? Next 2 weeks looks pretty lame and I predict we warm up after that. Still really early but it had great potential. When the cold air enters the US to close to us it is rarely good. Need it to enter near Montana, not Michigan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 Could still be some interest along the S and SE shores. Next week still looks interesting. Plus, we all get a sugar coating Thursday into Friday. IDK. Too soon to be bummed. Or not. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 Usually the 15th or after I get bummed. Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 1 hour ago, tim123 said: Usually the 15th or after I get bummed. Lol Yeah. We get the first psychological rush of winter and then realize it typically doesn’t start until after, or near, Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 I wouldn’t quit on the anafront early next week. They can be finicky and with the right timing we could see appreciable snow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 9 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: Models took a turn for the worse eh? Next 2 weeks looks pretty lame and I predict we warm up after that. Still really early but it had great potential. When the cold air enters the US to close to us it is rarely good. Need it to enter near Montana, not Michigan. Yeah, quite the startling shift in the last 18 hours or so. To be honest this looks more reasonable and realistic. And as the WXfreak points out, cold and snowy Novembers rarely work in our favor so perhaps this is all for the best. Around the 20th it appears that a parade of powerful storms will break down the West Coast Ridge while a strong Bermuda high appears to be setting up for the East Coast. We might get an Indian Summer week after all. This is all speculation as the model shifts over the last few days have been drastic (and I'm also looking two weeks out, LOLz) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 19 minutes ago, 96blizz said: I wouldn’t quit on the anafront early next week. They can be finicky and with the right timing we could see appreciable snow. I think we also got a bit spoiled last November with almost 11" at KBUF. I also think as that timeframe nears and things become clearer we might enjoy an over achiever snow event during that time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 1 hour ago, 96blizz said: I wouldn’t quit on the anafront early next week. They can be finicky and with the right timing we could see appreciable snow. Nothing crazy but another step our way on the GFS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 If the GOOFUS is correct the "warm up" after next week's cold snap lasts about 5 days then heading towards the week of Thanksgiving it gets much colder again...i gotta be honest I hope we don't see the same transient temps we had last winter save for 2 weeks in January...although we do appear to have plenty is systems to deal with Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 3 hours ago, DeltaT13 said: Yeah, quite the startling shift in the last 18 hours or so. To be honest this looks more reasonable and realistic. And as the WXfreak points out, cold and snowy Novembers rarely work in our favor so perhaps this is all for the best. Around the 20th it appears that a parade of powerful storms will break down the West Coast Ridge while a strong Bermuda high appears to be setting up for the East Coast. We might get an Indian Summer week after all. This is all speculation as the model shifts over the last few days have been drastic (and I'm also looking two weeks out, LOLz) Im all for the cold this time of the year. I dont live right beside a lake anymore but on the Niagara Peninsula. The quicker Lake Erie and Lake Ontario cool down the better prospects for system snow. The warm lakes radiate heat miles inland hampering most early season events in the GTA and Downtown Buffalo. Also heading down to Nicaragua on the 22nd, so if we have to indian summer for a week id rather it happen when im down south haha 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 Euro is back to a nice hit for Monday into Tuesday... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 Yeas sir , throws us a bone at least for one run..lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 32 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Yeas sir , throws us a bone at least for one run..lol Here's to hoping it's on to something because truthfully the GFS isn't remarkably different 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 6, 2019 Author Share Posted November 6, 2019 What's up with all these dry arctic highs in mid November in the long range? We need some moisture to get good LES. We got about 11 weeks from today before the lake freezes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now