BuffaloWeather Posted November 4, 2019 Author Share Posted November 4, 2019 Any lake effect the next 2 weeks looks to be on a NW flow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted November 4, 2019 Share Posted November 4, 2019 6 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Any lake effect the next 2 weeks looks to be on a NW flow. I'll take it...even in Williamsville I can get some streamers from Huron and Georgian Bay...may not get much but it will definitely keep the mood going Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 4, 2019 Share Posted November 4, 2019 Not so sure about that my friend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 4, 2019 Share Posted November 4, 2019 Both gfs and euro give us a little snow Sunday night as well.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 4, 2019 Share Posted November 4, 2019 Hmmmm https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=prateptype_cat_ecmwf&rh=2019110412&fh=24&r=conus&dpdt=&mc= Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted November 4, 2019 Share Posted November 4, 2019 It only goes out to Thursday at midday... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 4, 2019 Share Posted November 4, 2019 It's still updating, up to hr 90 (1am Fri) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 4, 2019 Share Posted November 4, 2019 Euro really bombs out off the coast of maine.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 4, 2019 Author Share Posted November 4, 2019 The euro blows, lock in the canadian 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 4, 2019 Author Share Posted November 4, 2019 NAM with WWA snows. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 4, 2019 Share Posted November 4, 2019 And still going! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted November 4, 2019 Share Posted November 4, 2019 Most wintry early November period incoming since the Little Ice Age... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 4, 2019 Author Share Posted November 4, 2019 Well below average Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 4, 2019 Share Posted November 4, 2019 On Thursday a trough will dig across the eastern Great Lakes which will encourage a cold front to drop across the region. Latest model guidance is in better agreement, with the GFS trending toward GGEM/ECMWF guidance which have consistently tracked a wave of low pressure from the lower Mississippi Valley to southern New England. The surface low will remain well to our south, but it will provide some synoptic moisture which will enhance the frontal passage, and then lake effect snow showers behind the front. There are minor timing differences with the front, but consensus suggests 850 mb temperatures will drop to around -10C behind the front Thursday evening, and down to -13C by Friday morning. This is plenty cold enough to support snow at all areas, and will bring the first real taste of winter to many locations. As is usually the case for our region, the bulk of the snow will be lake effect (or enhanced). A northerly component post- frontal flow will not support banding but will provide a general snow shower regime which will develop Thursday and last Thursday night and Friday. It`s difficult to pin down amounts in this flow but advisory amounts of 4+ inches in 12 hours are definitely in play. The greatest risk for these is across the western Southern Tier where upsloping and upstream lake connections will provide enhancement. Regardless of snow amounts, there is high confidence in much below normal temperatures with the forecast generally a few degrees cooler than model consensus blends Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 4, 2019 Share Posted November 4, 2019 Another even colder air mass will approach Saturday night, with an almost arctic frontal boundary likely to drop southward across the region in the Sunday timeframe. 850mb temperatures will drop to around -15C by Monday with excellent model agreement for this timeframe providing good forecast confidence. Temperatures will be well below normal by Sunday night with highs on Monday struggling to reach freezing. This also will support another round of lake effect snow. Much of this will again be behind the front in a northerly component flow which would provide a general snow shower regime rather than localized banding. However with temperatures aloft this cold and initial moisture from the trough there could be a good fluff factor and cold enough surface temperatures to support some significant accumulations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted November 4, 2019 Share Posted November 4, 2019 19 minutes ago, Buffalo Bumble said: Most wintry early November period incoming since the Little Ice Age... Will this be the season we finally get that big LES event for the metro area??????????? we're certainly due!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted November 4, 2019 Share Posted November 4, 2019 41 minutes ago, Buffalo Bumble said: Most wintry early November period incoming since the Little Ice Age... But but but the NWS month ahead forecast promised us a balmy November. How can this be? Their CO2 algorithms must have blown a fuse. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted November 4, 2019 Share Posted November 4, 2019 5 minutes ago, Syrmax said: But but but the NWS month ahead forecast promised us a balmy November. How can this be? Their CO2 algorithms must have blown a fuse. Damn it they have as much of a clue as we do!!! They no longer perform true forecasting...thesw models are incredibly fickle and change at any little change...that said im truly starting to get excited as its possible by next Tuesday it will look an awful lot like winter around mist of upstate NY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted November 4, 2019 Share Posted November 4, 2019 1 hour ago, Buffalo Bumble said: Most wintry early November period incoming since the Little Ice Age... Actually just last year we had an abnormally wintry November too! It snowed 20 out of 30 days which is really quite a startling statistic. Rochester had 17 inches for the Month. December then went on to have above average temps and minimal snow, so these fast starts appear to come with risks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cny rider Posted November 4, 2019 Share Posted November 4, 2019 1 hour ago, DeltaT13 said: Actually just last year we had an abnormally wintry November too! It snowed 20 out of 30 days which is really quite a startling statistic. Rochester had 17 inches for the Month. December then went on to have above average temps and minimal snow, so these fast starts appear to come with risks. It's an interesting pattern we've had over a few years. When I think of deer hunting season I think of being out in winter conditions.....we always seem to have some snow and at least a period of bitter cold where we struggle to get up to freezing for a high. Then I think of Christmas week, a month later.....and it tends toward the balmy side, often with no snow around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 4, 2019 Author Share Posted November 4, 2019 Cold November’s warm December’s are the new norm. I’d like it reversed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted November 4, 2019 Share Posted November 4, 2019 26 minutes ago, cny rider said: It's an interesting pattern we've had over a few years. When I think of deer hunting season I think of being out in winter conditions.....we always seem to have some snow and at least a period of bitter cold where we struggle to get up to freezing for a high. Then I think of Christmas week, a month later.....and it tends toward the balmy side, often with no snow around. I checked my records the other day...in 2016 and 2018 we had 20" mixed synoptic and lake enhanced/effect events around Syracuse prior to Thanksgiving (around 15th-20th each time). And I agree, the Christmas week to New Years period has been mild more often than not over the past several years. For the record KSYR averages about 9" snow for November. For many years we were below normal but 2016&2018 made up for some of that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted November 5, 2019 Share Posted November 5, 2019 My sentiments exactly and its happening again, ugh unless we see a wire to wire cold season, but those yrs are long gone during the 60's and 70's, now we're in the balmy stage so who knows where we go from here. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted November 5, 2019 Share Posted November 5, 2019 Guys, guys, there's no reason to fret. There's no reason why we can't get persistent blocking to keep it below average temps both months. And getting some good snowpack to our northwest will help keep those arctic airmasses nice and cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted November 5, 2019 Share Posted November 5, 2019 5 hours ago, Buffalo Bumble said: Most wintry early November period incoming since the Little Ice Age... November 9,1995 I closed on my house. I drove up the thruway in a snowstorm from Canastota west. KSYR got 7.9 inches that day. November 1995 is the snowiest November at Syracuse with 34.2 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 5, 2019 Share Posted November 5, 2019 Rochester has had the same. A few of the last November’s have been ridiculously snowy. I’d bet we’ve had 3 white Thanksgivings over the last 5 or 6. And then, by the time to cut a tree, we are in the mud, with windy mild Xmas. Same this year me thinks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted November 5, 2019 Share Posted November 5, 2019 Anyone look at the 18 GFS output??? It gets better and better... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted November 5, 2019 Share Posted November 5, 2019 Looking like a 3 to 5 inch type event in western ny. Late in weekend looks interesting for nw flow lake snow. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 5, 2019 Share Posted November 5, 2019 It’s odd that mixing isn’t a major concern. BUF even mentions “fluff factor”. Is my calendar wrong!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 5, 2019 Share Posted November 5, 2019 Euro has come on board with the other models, small event but we take it lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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