Thinksnow18 Posted November 2, 2019 Share Posted November 2, 2019 So...the CPC released their November temperature outlook on October 17th...most of the country had better than average odds for AN temp anomalies...2 weeks later I still don't see a "what the eff were we seeing" from their office... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted November 2, 2019 Share Posted November 2, 2019 Snowstorm on euro next weekend. And cmc 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 2, 2019 Share Posted November 2, 2019 See how long this one last for lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted November 2, 2019 Share Posted November 2, 2019 6 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: See how long this one last for lol Well the NWS BUF also discusses isn't and has leaned a lot more on the Euro the past 2 weeks and hasn't been wrong...yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 2, 2019 Share Posted November 2, 2019 While I agree, it's still long shot that the euro/Ggem sniffed this out with a week to go.. In terms of placement/track.. Not ready to jump on this scenario just yet as it would require precise timing and placement of the two waves to interact in this manner, but it will be something to watch closely in model guidance over the coming days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 2, 2019 Share Posted November 2, 2019 Gfs had something brewing as well but it's gets squashed and strung out.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 2, 2019 Share Posted November 2, 2019 Just now, wolfie09 said: Gfs had something brewing as well but it's gets squashed and strung out.. Canadian same time.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 2, 2019 Author Share Posted November 2, 2019 12 hours ago, wolfie09 said: Some estimated 10"-15" in parts of the tug and Adirondacks for the month of October.. Between 8"-10" here which fits in nicely with the 2 nearest WU stations.(9" and 10" ) So much rain, probably some cool waterfalls right now coming off the mountains. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 2, 2019 Author Share Posted November 2, 2019 5 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Gfs had something brewing as well but it's gets squashed and strung out.. Watch us get suppressed in early Nov. That would be something, snow to our south. That's a strong high, it's the likely solution. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted November 2, 2019 Share Posted November 2, 2019 8 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Watch us get suppressed in early Nov. That would be something, snow to our south. That's a strong high, it's the likely solution. I'm not ready to give the GFS any marks yet...it has shown over the past 10 days lead time crazy cold and solutions and in the end the EURO was leaned on more...i will say this though to Wolfies point the GFS actually had this scenario modeled 2 days ago and backed off it, now the Euro has it...makes me think the GFS comes back around to it by Monday and were all looking at our first accumulation. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 2, 2019 Share Posted November 2, 2019 So I'm running on half power right now lol Got extension cords running all through the house haha 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 2, 2019 Share Posted November 2, 2019 Ggem has an even stronger HP but it's better positioned and the system is faster moving up here.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 2, 2019 Author Share Posted November 2, 2019 11 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: I'm not ready to give the GFS any marks yet...it has shown over the past 10 days lead time crazy cold and solutions and in the end the EURO was leaned on more...i will say this though to Wolfies point the GFS actually had this scenario modeled 2 days ago and backed off it, now the Euro has it...makes me think the GFS comes back around to it by Monday and were all looking at our first accumulation. A lot has to come together perfectly in this setup to get a good snowstorm here, but it can happen. The cold air is definitely there for so early in the season. Last year we had a pretty big upstate snowstorm around mid month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted November 2, 2019 Share Posted November 2, 2019 6 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: A lot has to come together perfectly in this setup to get a good snowstorm here, but it can happen. The cold air is definitely there for so early in the season. Last year we had a pretty big upstate snowstorm around mid month. Yeah I recall. After a pretty long stretch of non synoptic events in November it would be something to have 2 November's in a row!!! Hey how's the fence repair going??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted November 2, 2019 Share Posted November 2, 2019 18 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: So I'm running on half power right now lol Got extension cords running all through the house haha I remember the October surprise storm here in buffalo back in 2006 and one of my budfies neighborhood was odd in the case that one side if the street lost power and the other side didn't...youve never seen so many extension chords gong from one side if the street to the other...coolest scene 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 2, 2019 Author Share Posted November 2, 2019 10 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: Yeah I recall. After a pretty long stretch of non synoptic events in November it would be something to have 2 November's in a row!!! Hey how's the fence repair going??? I'm doing damage control all winter with it to preserve the materials and likely have it fixed by a professional company in Spring. Received 3 quotes of around $4,000. In the process of taking him to small claims which would probably take a few months to get resolved. If I end up losing it's the most expensive mistake I've made and a quick learning experience in home ownership. Never trust anyone, a buddy is not a friend. Everyone wants money with little to no effort. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 2, 2019 Author Share Posted November 2, 2019 7 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: I remember the October surprise storm here in buffalo back in 2006 and one of my budfies neighborhood was odd in the case that one side if the street lost power and the other side didn't...youve never seen so many extension chords gong from one side if the street to the other...coolest scene My dad hard wired the generator right into our circuit breaker to power the lower level of our house. We were without power for 12 days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted November 2, 2019 Share Posted November 2, 2019 A quick side note as we move on from the wind storm. The GFS had that stormed pinned down to a T nearly 7 days out while the euro and cmc seemed to waffle a lot more leading up to it. Give credit where credit is due. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 2, 2019 Share Posted November 2, 2019 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 2, 2019 Author Share Posted November 2, 2019 15 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: That's a mid January high in early Nov. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 2, 2019 Author Share Posted November 2, 2019 This is the greatest model porn in a decade. 961 MB is a Cat 3 Hurricane pressure with a lake snow band. It actually gets down to 959. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 2, 2019 Share Posted November 2, 2019 This is the greatest model porn in a decade. 961 MB is a Cat 3 Hurricane pressure with a lake snow band. It actually gets down to 959. I could see this scenario working out. Pretty common LP placement for this time of year. Hey! We got stuff to watch. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 2, 2019 Share Posted November 2, 2019 That's a good looking set-up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeyes_Suck Posted November 2, 2019 Share Posted November 2, 2019 15 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: This is the greatest model porn in a decade. 961 MB is a Cat 3 Hurricane pressure with a lake snow band. It actually gets down to 959. Most isobars ever. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 2, 2019 Share Posted November 2, 2019 Probably a touch to warm verbatim..( at least to start) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 2, 2019 Author Share Posted November 2, 2019 23 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Probably a touch to warm verbatim..( at least to start) Highly prefer the Cat 3 blizzard to this weak wave. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 2, 2019 Share Posted November 2, 2019 Euro already starting the shift.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted November 2, 2019 Share Posted November 2, 2019 Not worried to much chances growing for area wide snow fall. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted November 2, 2019 Share Posted November 2, 2019 5 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: This is the greatest model porn in a decade. 961 MB is a Cat 3 Hurricane pressure with a lake snow band. It actually gets down to 959. That really is amazing. Even bullshit fantasy run storms aren’t usually that insane. I don’t think I’ve ever seen a sub 960mb storm cross the lakes 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted November 2, 2019 Share Posted November 2, 2019 6 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said: That really is amazing. Even bullshit fantasy run storms aren’t usually that insane. I don’t think I’ve ever seen a sub 960mb storm cross the lakes Literally the single greatest run I can ever remember for here. Obviously it’s going to change but just dreaming of something like this is absolutely fantastic. What would the winds with something like that be? 80mph ??? Probably couldn’t even sustain lake effect snow with winds of that speed. Look at how close those isobars are!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now