wolfie09 Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 The nearest WU station, about 2 miles west needs 2.99" for 10" of rain this month.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cny rider Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 8 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: Took this yesterday at a local park Beautiful shot. So many leaves! We completed our leaf clean up yesterday with a final mulch. Nothing left on the trees here. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 Congrats to the Nats..I'm just glad it wasn't Houston haha..Crazy series with all road wins.. Cole is already out the building. Gerrit Cole, an impending free agent, was resistant to talk after Game 7. “I’m not an employee of the team,” he said to an Astros spokesperson. “I guess as a representative of myself...” Then he spoke. Early odds to win next year's WS.. Houston 4-1 NYY/LAD 5-1 Boston/Atlanta 10-1 Washington 14-1.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 1 hour ago, wolfie09 said: The nearest WU station, about 2 miles west needs 2.99" for 10" of rain this month.. That’s a very impressive stat. I really can’t recall an upstate location receiving that much synoptic rainfall in one month. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 55 minutes ago, cny rider said: Beautiful shot. So many leaves! We completed our leaf clean up yesterday with a final mulch. Nothing left on the trees here. I haven’t even raked leaves one time yet. That will change drastically come tonight. Lol. I’m ready to get the cleanup underway! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 31, 2019 Author Share Posted October 31, 2019 8 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Congrats to the Nats..I'm just glad it wasn't Houston haha..Crazy series with all road wins.. Cole is already out the building. Gerrit Cole, an impending free agent, was resistant to talk after Game 7. “I’m not an employee of the team,” he said to an Astros spokesperson. “I guess as a representative of myself...” Then he spoke. Early odds to win next year's WS.. Houston 4-1 NYY/LAD 5-1 Boston/Atlanta 10-1 Washington 14-1.. That was a crazy game 7. Houstons pitching fell completely apart. They had 4 new pitches within 3 innings and every one of them gave up a run. I was happy they won too, hoping next year yanks get some pitching. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 1 hour ago, wolfie09 said: Upgraded to a high wind warning.. .HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 4 PM EDT FRIDAY... * WHAT...Southwest winds 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 65 mph expected. * WHERE...Wayne, Northern Cayuga, Oswego, Jefferson, and Lewis counties. * WHEN...From midnight tonight to 4 PM EDT Friday. * IMPACTS...Damaging winds will bring down numerous trees and power lines. Widespread power outages are expected. Travel will be difficult, especially for high profile vehicles Wonder how we're getting 65mph gusts with this unimpressive LP going almost right over us?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 It's seems to be more about the powerful cold front.. strong cold front will sweep east across the region this evening, with damaging winds developing in the wake of the cold front tonight through Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 4 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: It's seems to be more about the powerful cold front.. strong cold front will sweep east across the region this evening, with damaging winds developing in the wake of the cold front tonight through Friday. Just read the AFD - this seems to be the only risk for Advisory vs Warning gusts: There remains some differences in 00Z guidance in how fast the surface low will consolidate into one center, which has implications on forecast winds aloft from the various model guidance. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 31, 2019 Author Share Posted October 31, 2019 Late Friday into early Saturday looks interesting for lake effect. Going to be a close call for temps. If rates are strong enough it can cool the atmosphere enough for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 1 hour ago, vortmax said: Wonder how we're getting 65mph gusts with this unimpressive LP going almost right over us?? While not an typical setup, there are some intriguing things. The low is somewhat double barreled but the deeper stronger and more tightly packed surface low actually consolidates and remains West of us just over Southern Ontario. The storm is also hitting its peak deepening phase right as it crosses over the Eastern Lakes which is absolutely ideal. Couple that with a very nice isallobaric pressure rises and I think we can overcome the slightly unusual storm track. I'm cautiously optimistic this might overperform in my neck of the woods. Trees are still holding a lot of leaves which may make a big difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 Its odd how the models want to place the primary surface low over Northern NY while a secondary and tighter surface low can be seen just SE of Lake Huron. Thats the low that will bring us the winds. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 11 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said: Its odd how the models want to place the primary surface low over Northern NY while a secondary and tighter surface low can be seen just SE of Lake Huron. Thats the low that will bring us the winds. Does you see an under-performing potential scenario here due to the slightly unusual setup? This is happening overnight as well, so limited diurnal influences.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 13 minutes ago, vortmax said: Do you see an under-performing potential scenario here due to the slightly unusual setup? This is happening overnight as well, so limited diurnal influences.. Yes, That is certainly possible. All of the truly damaging wind events almost always occur during daylight hours when diurnal mixing is maximized. Mixing is really the best way to get the strongest winds to the surface. That said, the nearly perfect timing of this storm hitting its peak deepening just as it passes to our NW may give us a boost of winds. I would say it has a higher chance of busting than verifying, but it certainly bears watching. It's always a little more exciting when no one is quite sure what to expect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 Just now, DeltaT13 said: Yes, That is certainly possible. All of the truly damaging wind events almost always occur during daylight hours when diurnal mixing is maximized. Mixing is really the best way to get the strongest winds to the surface. That said, the nearly perfect timing of this storm hitting its peak deepening just as it passes to our NW may give us a boost of winds. I would say it has a higher chance of busting that verifying, but it certainly bears watching. Will be an interesting one...let's see how it goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 Mesoscale forecast clearly shows one surface low to our NW. Not sure why the models are trying to create that other surface low to the E/NE. If this track hits it should be quite windy in the usual corridor NE of Lake Erie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 31, 2019 Author Share Posted October 31, 2019 @DeltaT13 Midnight sunday evening. That's a LES band if I'm looking at temps correctly? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 31, 2019 Author Share Posted October 31, 2019 Next weekend is going to be cold, highs in the low/mid 30s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 31, 2019 Author Share Posted October 31, 2019 Snowy Halloween in the midwest, Chicago area getting 3-5" earliest and highest snowfall in their history. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 4 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Snowy Halloween in the midwest, Chicago area getting 3-5" earliest and highest snowfall in their history. The best amounts seem to be northwest of the city, but that should come close to the official reporting station for Chicago (at O'Hare). My friends on the north side are forecast at T-1" but they're a few blocks from the lake and are used to busting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 Torrential downpour with a little bit of thunder, little over an inch of rain so far.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 It's definitely cold enough to be a sloppy graupelly mess. I would expect the heart of that band to be heavy wet snow. Surface temps will be marginal but elevated and grassy surfaces should accumulate. 1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said: @DeltaT13 Midnight sunday evening. That's a LES band if I'm looking at temps correctly? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 1 hour ago, wolfie09 said: That’ll get er done. Let’s get this winter started! I’m dying for the white. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 A cold front will cross the region this evening and mark the onset of stronger wind gusts to 50 mph. This front will near #Dunkirk around 6 pm, the #Buffalo region around 7 pm, and then the Genesee Valley between 8 and 9 pm. Much stronger winds will occur later this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phoenixny Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 2.05" for the day in Phoenix and 7.13" for the month. Yes please to 18z 312. That would be a fun stretch around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 Winds are already insane here. Not sure what they’re gusting to yet but literally sounds like a freight train here in West Seneca. Easily the strongest winds since I’ve lived here. Multiple large branches down in my yard already and strongest winds aren’t expected until after midnight, HWW doesn’t even go into effect until 8pm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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