wolfie09 Posted October 29, 2019 Share Posted October 29, 2019 19 hours ago, wolfie09 said: We are late lol First flakes put into the forecast, see how that goes.. Forecast dropped 2° for Saturday night and 5° on Sunday, now a forecast high of 39° .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted October 29, 2019 Share Posted October 29, 2019 I'm starting to get the feeling looking at the 6 to 10 day and 8 to 14 day outlook that the CPC November temperature outlook is going to end up wildly wrong...cant post it so if someone else can that would be awesome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 29, 2019 Author Share Posted October 29, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 29, 2019 Author Share Posted October 29, 2019 Otherwise...it will be notably colder on Friday with H85 temps averaging -5c not allowing near sfc temps to recover more than the low to mid 40s f. The cold air within the cyclonic flow will support a fairly pronounced lake response during the first half of the day...then as the synoptic moisture is peeled away...the mixed rain and snow showers will taper off through the afternoon. As the next potent shortwave digs out another trough over the Upper Great Lakes Friday night and Saturday...the steering flow will back more to the southwest. This will direct mixed rain and wet lake effect snow showers northward into the BUF metro area and also across the northern parts of Jefferson county. Its worth noting that while it will be chilly enough to support a lake response...the general lack of synoptic moisture should preclude any significant precipitation. This may change Saturday night though...as the robust shortwave will plow across the Lower Great Lakes. The associated lake enhanced pcpn could include a short period of steady wet snow that will have the chance to accumulate on mainly elevated surfaces...although that will also be determined by the intensity. In either case...the mixed pcpn within a southwest flow will push south overnight in the wake of the aforementioned shortwave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 29, 2019 Author Share Posted October 29, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 29, 2019 Author Share Posted October 29, 2019 I think the first 2 weeks end up below normal, the last 2 above normal. Kind of wish it was the opposite as we're still a little bit too early for good LES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 29, 2019 Author Share Posted October 29, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted October 29, 2019 Share Posted October 29, 2019 1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said: I think the first 2 weeks end up below normal, the last 2 above normal. Kind of wish it was the opposite as we're still a little bit too early for good LES. There are some good signs that the PV elongated over the second half of November keeping the trough over the east...ill attach if I can. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted October 29, 2019 Share Posted October 29, 2019 USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted 1 hour ago It appears the first half of November will favor a storm track north of the US/Canada border into Ontario and Quebec, Canada Provinces favoring a heavy snow track through these areas. This future snow depth would allow cold air masses to reach further east and south towards the end of November and into December. This will allow a further east and south extension of the cold fronts that move in from central Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted October 29, 2019 Share Posted October 29, 2019 From the New England forum...theres more too...i think that 3 to 4 week outlook from last Friday changed quite a bit...that 8 to 14 day outlook shows quite the lock on the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 29, 2019 Author Share Posted October 29, 2019 51 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted 1 hour ago It appears the first half of November will favor a storm track north of the US/Canada border into Ontario and Quebec, Canada Provinces favoring a heavy snow track through these areas. This future snow depth would allow cold air masses to reach further east and south towards the end of November and into December. This will allow a further east and south extension of the cold fronts that move in from central Canada. He’s a terrible poster and always says a huge storm and the pv is constantly coming. Even in a super nino. I would never quote that guy, stick to the Mets and more knowledgeable posters. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 30, 2019 Share Posted October 30, 2019 Oh how I missed you Canadian lol 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted October 30, 2019 Share Posted October 30, 2019 Rochester still hasnt hit freezing yet this fall so the growing season continues on. Pretty wild that I'm still picking peppers from the garden. We might not even hit it this weekend and if that happens looks like we'll go another 7 days before the next chance. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 30, 2019 Author Share Posted October 30, 2019 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeyes_Suck Posted October 30, 2019 Share Posted October 30, 2019 2 hours ago, DeltaT13 said: Rochester still hasnt hit freezing yet this fall so the growing season continues on. Pretty wild that I'm still picking peppers from the garden. We might not even hit it this weekend and if that happens looks like we'll go another 7 days before the next chance. Your trees still holding most of their leaves? Around here you can tell who has had a decent frost and who hasnt... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 30, 2019 Author Share Posted October 30, 2019 Next weekend looks interesting for LES/synoptic. Should be cold enough for all snow by that time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted October 30, 2019 Share Posted October 30, 2019 I'm sad to see this current storm slowly trending weaker and weaker. We went from a sub 980mb low to a 991mb low in the span of a couple days. Still a nice track though and there should be a nice window of decent winds just behind the actual front, but not the blockbuster I had been rooting for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted October 30, 2019 Share Posted October 30, 2019 15 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said: I'm sad to see this current storm slowly trending weaker and weaker. We went from a sub 980mb low to a 991mb low in the span of a couple days. Still a nice track though and there should be a nice window of decent winds just behind the actual front, but not the blockbuster I had been rooting for. At least we get to keep the power on! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted October 30, 2019 Share Posted October 30, 2019 34 minutes ago, vortmax said: At least we get to keep the power on! The power going out is the fun part! Thats what I'm sad about. haha 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted October 30, 2019 Share Posted October 30, 2019 1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said: Next weekend looks interesting for LES/synoptic. Should be cold enough for all snow by that time. The 12z GFS would have a synoptic event next Friday and Saturday that would indeed give us all the first accumulations! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 30, 2019 Share Posted October 30, 2019 Euro has it too just to far west... Overall the euro looked pretty meh from what I seen, sure I'll be saying that a lot this year lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 30, 2019 Author Share Posted October 30, 2019 It will then become interesting Saturday night and Sunday...as a fresh shot of cold air in the wake of the aforementioned cold front will open the door for a more pronounced lake response. A well aligned westerly flow should enable fairly well organized lake bands east of both lakes...with wet snow being the primary p type. While it is a little early to get specific about snowfall amounts...it would not take much to envision several inches of snow accumulating over the Tug Hill and portions of the Southern Tier. Stay tuned for this one. LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As the next potent shortwave digs out another trough over the Upper Great Lakes Friday night and Saturday...the steering flow will back more to the southwest. This will direct mixed rain and wet lake effect snow showers northward into the BUF metro area and also across the northern parts of Jefferson county early Saturday before changing to all rain by afternoon. The robust shortwave will plow across the Lower Great Lakes Saturday night. The associated lake enhanced pcpn could include a short period of steady wet snow that will have the chance to accumulate on mainly elevated surfaces...although that will also be determined by the intensity. In either case...the mixed pcpn within a southwest flow will push south overnight in the wake of the aforementioned shortwave. During this period broad upper level troughing will become established across the eastern two thirds of the continent...and will help to feed colder air across our region into the start of the new work week. Such an airmass will easily be cold enough to support a lake response downwind of both lakes. A cold southwest flow on Sunday will support mixed rain and wet snow showers...mainly in the snowbelts south of Buffalo and Watertown. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 30, 2019 Share Posted October 30, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 30, 2019 Share Posted October 30, 2019 Would be a close call, verbatim, on the gfs.. Not that I believe it's thermal profiles..lol If it's cold enough aloft with heavy precipitation I think we probably snow, accumulating is a totally different story lol.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 30, 2019 Share Posted October 30, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattny88 Posted October 30, 2019 Share Posted October 30, 2019 hey guys just wanted to see what the weather is looking for going into next week as the colder air pushes in..is first flakes and/or synoptic/any lake effect snow chances a reality.. i live up here in oswego ny and just am curious because its getting to be that time of year again. I am wanting to start up the chatter and model runs to see the possibilities thanks guys!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 Going to be a soaker that's for sure.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 31, 2019 Author Share Posted October 31, 2019 Took this yesterday at a local park 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 Upgraded to a high wind warning.. .HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 4 PM EDT FRIDAY... * WHAT...Southwest winds 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 65 mph expected. * WHERE...Wayne, Northern Cayuga, Oswego, Jefferson, and Lewis counties. * WHEN...From midnight tonight to 4 PM EDT Friday. * IMPACTS...Damaging winds will bring down numerous trees and power lines. Widespread power outages are expected. Travel will be difficult, especially for high profile vehicles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 Flood watch.. ...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING... The Flood Watch continues for * A portion of central New York...including the following counties...Jefferson...Lewis and Oswego. * From 2 PM EDT this afternoon through Friday evening. * Widespread moderate to heavy rain will develop this afternoon and continue tonight across the eastern Lake Ontario region. Rainfall amounts of 2 to 3 inches are expected. * Excessive runoff from the heavy rain may result in flooding of poor drainage areas and small creeks late this afternoon through tonight. Larger rivers will also experience significant rises by later Friday, with flooding possible along the Moose River near McKeever, the Black River, and other rivers that drain the Tug Hill Plateau and western Adirondacks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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