lakeeffectkid383 Posted October 23, 2019 Share Posted October 23, 2019 46 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Maybe it's delayed a few days but no chance on the Canadian... Wow what a difference for only about 7-8 days out between this and the GFS. Canadian says break out the flip flops and GFS says break out the shovels. Who will win on battle of the Halloween forecast.... stay tuned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted October 23, 2019 Share Posted October 23, 2019 2 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said: Wow what a difference for only about 7-8 days out between this and the GFS. Canadian says break out the flip flops and GFS says break out the shovels. Who will win on battle of the Halloween forecast.... stay tuned. Ok the GFS might have very well dipped into the "special brownies" but it's far more reliable than the Canadian model...i think if the Euro temps and the GFS temps are somewhere in the middle (-7c to -8c) then it will depend on time of day...daylight hours cold rain, nighttime wet snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 23, 2019 Author Share Posted October 23, 2019 1 hour ago, Thinksnow18 said: Ok the GFS might have very well dipped into the "special brownies" but it's far more reliable than the Canadian model...i think if the Euro temps and the GFS temps are somewhere in the middle (-7c to -8c) then it will depend on time of day...daylight hours cold rain, nighttime wet snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted October 23, 2019 Share Posted October 23, 2019 .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...Medium range guidance continues to be in poor agreement by Tuesdayand Wednesday of next week with the timing and track of the nextsignificant trough. The GFS is a solid 2 days faster in swinging thetrough and cold air into the Great Lakes, and would haveimplications with lake effect potential. Meanwhile, the 12ZECMWF/GEM and ECMWF ensemble mean is far slower, allowing for asignificant warm-up and rain event by the middle of next week, withthe cold air remaining over the Northern Plains. Given the recentpattern, have once again leaned very heavily towards the ECWMF/GEMconsensus for the long term today.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted October 23, 2019 Share Posted October 23, 2019 Euro has 60 to 90 mph gusts on day 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted October 23, 2019 Share Posted October 23, 2019 2 minutes ago, tim123 said: Euro has 60 to 90 mph gusts on day 9 Nothing posted my friend. Blank map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted October 23, 2019 Share Posted October 23, 2019 Wont let me post it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted October 23, 2019 Share Posted October 23, 2019 Screen shot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted October 23, 2019 Share Posted October 23, 2019 10 minutes ago, tim123 said: Screen shot Are those at the surface or above? I've never seen surface winds modeled that high outside of a tropical system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 23, 2019 Share Posted October 23, 2019 Pretty sure it's surface.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 23, 2019 Share Posted October 23, 2019 Delta would be one happy guy. Would suck for trick or treaters.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted October 23, 2019 Share Posted October 23, 2019 Just now, wolfie09 said: Delta would be one happy guy. Would suck for trick or treaters.. What trick or treaters lol? With those wind speeds the kiddos in costume from Buffalo will land up in Syracuse and the ones from Syracuse will end up in Montreal! Halloween cancel for heavy accumulating snow or hurricane force winds? Should be interesting. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 23, 2019 Share Posted October 23, 2019 Plenty of liquid too.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 23, 2019 Share Posted October 23, 2019 1 hour ago, tim123 said: Wont let me post it. Hey Tim, make sure you download from the"arrow"..It won't load properly if u try to download the image itself.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted October 24, 2019 Share Posted October 24, 2019 Local stations are already turning up the hype notch! Seems rather irresponsible in my opinion for a legit media outlet to be issuing a forecast like this 8 days out.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeyes_Suck Posted October 24, 2019 Share Posted October 24, 2019 So looks like next week is interesting one way or another... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted October 24, 2019 Share Posted October 24, 2019 . 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted October 24, 2019 Share Posted October 24, 2019 5 hours ago, wolfie09 said: Delta would be one happy guy. Would suck for trick or treaters.. Haha, you know it. Thats a dream setup! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted October 24, 2019 Share Posted October 24, 2019 Last two runs of the GFS have really backed off the lake effect chances for the end of the month...the powerful low it had been showing is now just a week wave that doesn't get shunted westward by the blocking over Greenland...instead it's progressive and theres only a SW that comes out of Canada with little fanfare...one thing I'm noticing is how much more magnified the cold bias is so far on the new GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted October 24, 2019 Share Posted October 24, 2019 5 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: Last two runs of the GFS have really backed off the lake effect chances for the end of the month...the powerful low it had been showing is now just a week wave that doesn't get shunted westward by the blocking over Greenland...instead it's progressive and theres only a SW that comes out of Canada with little fanfare...one thing I'm noticing is how much more magnified the cold bias is so far on the new GFS. Hence why the NWS heavily favors the Euro/CMC blend over it. Anytime there’s a cold blast in the 8-10 day range as it gets within 5-7 day timeframe it vanishes. Would have been fun to have an early lake effect event but there will be plenty of time for lake effect as we move into the coming weeks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted October 24, 2019 Share Posted October 24, 2019 20 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said: Hence why the NWS heavily favors the Euro/CMC blend over it. Anytime there’s a cold blast in the 8-10 day range as it gets within 5-7 day timeframe it vanishes. Would have been fun to have an early lake effect event but there will be plenty of time for lake effect as we move into the coming weeks. I agree...plenty of time, but damn it got the juices flowing for the upcoming winter!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 24, 2019 Author Share Posted October 24, 2019 We will still get some flakes, and likely first accumulating snow in higher elevations next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 24, 2019 Share Posted October 24, 2019 0z euro not as strong with the wind gusts but still noteworthy.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 24, 2019 Share Posted October 24, 2019 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 24, 2019 Author Share Posted October 24, 2019 19 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: These were chosen based on best matches re: summer into fall for ENSO, TNI, PDO, AMO, QBO, NAO and solar. I haven't checked on the snowfall result in those years for the northeast. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted October 24, 2019 Share Posted October 24, 2019 2 hours ago, wolfie09 said: Still a HHW event. Most leaves will be gone by then, thankfully. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted October 24, 2019 Share Posted October 24, 2019 2 hours ago, wolfie09 said: This looks much more reasonable with your highest gust over your typical areas to the NE of the lake on a SW wind and in the 70-80mph range instead of 90+ mph gust over CNY. Even if this were to verify it would be a very significant wind event. I remember the high wind event last winter (can't remember exactly when, maybe January?) and there was 75 mph gust across Erie and Niagara Counties and there was quite a bit of damage. There's still quite a bit of leaves on the trees at least a cross the lower elevations of the Niagara Frontier and I'm doubtful they'll be almost all off around here. Definitely worth keeping an eye on. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted October 24, 2019 Share Posted October 24, 2019 So the KBUF AFD just kibashed the GFS extended for next week saying it's going to turn colder but not to the extent of the GFS model... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted October 25, 2019 Share Posted October 25, 2019 This looks much more reasonable with your highest gust over your typical areas to the NE of the lake on a SW wind and in the 70-80mph range instead of 90+ mph gust over CNY. Even if this were to verify it would be a very significant wind event. I remember the high wind event last winter (can't remember exactly when, maybe January?) and there was 75 mph gust across Erie and Niagara Counties and there was quite a bit of damage. There's still quite a bit of leaves on the trees at least a cross the lower elevations of the Niagara Frontier and I'm doubtful they'll be almost all off around here. Definitely worth keeping an eye on. Storm this past winter was Feb 24. Port Colborne gusted to 79mph. Can anyone who has Euro access see how deep it bombs out this storm once it’s up over Ontario? Has it down sub 980 over northern Michigan in the cheap skate version. But yeah if we see winds like that with trees still mostly full in the lake plains on top of some very wet soil with all the recent rain will be some big problems. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted October 25, 2019 Share Posted October 25, 2019 17 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: Storm this past winter was Feb 24. Port Colborne gusted to 79mph. Can anyone who has Euro access see how deep it bombs out this storm once it’s up over Ontario? Has it down sub 980 over northern Michigan in the cheap skate version. But yeah if we see winds like that with trees still mostly full in the lake plains on top of some very wet soil with all the recent rain will be some big problems. . Thank you! Just bought model subscription today since we are now at least getting close to interesting weather. 12z gets it down to a minimum of 978 over Michigan/Lake Superior before slowly weakening as it pulls NE, high res wind maps show widespread gust of 60+ mph throughout most of this forum. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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