wolfie09 Posted October 17, 2019 Share Posted October 17, 2019 Estimated rain totals. Still pounding away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted October 17, 2019 Share Posted October 17, 2019 25 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Estimated rain totals. Still pounding away. It hasn't been nearly as robust here in WNY, specifically the Niagara Frontier, but we have had light to occasionally moderate lake effect rain from Lake Ontario owning to your earlier comment that if this was a true noreaster this could've been a true monster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 17, 2019 Share Posted October 17, 2019 Warmer-than-average temperatures are forecast for much of the U.S. this winter according to NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. Although below-average temperatures are not favored, cold weather is anticipated and some areas could still experience a colder-than-average winter. Wetter-than-average weather is most likely across the Northern Tier of the U.S. during winter, which extends from December through February. While the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) climate pattern often influences the winter, neutral conditions are in place this year and expected to persist into the spring. In the absence of El Nino or La Nina, long-term trends become a key predictor for the outlook, while other climate patterns, such as the Madden-Julian Oscillation and Arctic Oscillation (AO), will likely play a larger role in determining winter weather. For example, the AO influences the number of arctic air masses that intrude into the U.S., but its predictability is limited to a couple weeks. “Without either El Nino or La Nina conditions, short-term climate patterns like the Arctic Oscillation will drive winter weather and could result in large swings in temperature and precipitation,” said Mike Halpert, deputy director of NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. This spring saw significant and historic flooding across the central U.S. that impacted nearly 17 million people. However, during the summer and early fall, drought rapidly developed across much of the South, with drought conditions now present across approximately 20% of the country. The 2019-20 U.S. Winter Outlook | December through February Temperature The greatest likelihood for warmer-than-normal conditions are in Alaska and Hawaii, with more modest probabilities for above-average temperatures spanning large parts of the remaining lower 48 from the West across the South and up the eastern seaboard. The Northern Plains, Upper Mississippi Valley, and the western Great Lakes have equal chances for below-, near- or above-average temperatures. No part of the U.S. is favored to have below-average temperatures this winter. Precipitation Wetter-than-average conditions are most likely in Alaska and Hawaii this winter, along with portions of the Northern Plains, Upper Mississippi Valley, the Great Lakes and parts of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. Drier-than-average conditions are most likely for Louisiana, parts of Texas, Mississippi, Arkansas and Oklahoma as well areas of northern and central California. The remainder of the U.S. falls into the category of equal chances for below-, near-, or above-average precipitation. https://www.noaa.gov/media-release/winter-outlook-warmer-than-average-for-many-wetter-in-north 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted October 17, 2019 Share Posted October 17, 2019 Now, head to weather.com there's is MUCH different and actually references NOAA's outlook...probably a much more realistic pic due to a neutral ENSO IMO... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted October 18, 2019 Share Posted October 18, 2019 This guy earned his turns today! 5” at the top of the whiteface access road 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted October 18, 2019 Share Posted October 18, 2019 Anyone notice noaa never predicts cold anywhere ever. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeyes_Suck Posted October 18, 2019 Share Posted October 18, 2019 3 minutes ago, tim123 said: Anyone notice noaa never predicts cold anywhere ever. Hopefully not the result of political influence... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted October 18, 2019 Share Posted October 18, 2019 22 minutes ago, Luke_Mages said: Hopefully not the result of political influence... I dont believe that's it, however I do believe NOAA's biggest fault lies in what they do not take into consideration...the MJO, Siberian snow cover, PDO, QBO, and most importantly current trends in the indices...i think that by just using ENSO, and the long range models such as the CFS and others they pigeon hole themselves...seriously look at the weather channels outlook...it looks just like you believe it would based on other factors...has the West warm and the northern tier from the Dakota's to Maine below normal. It's exactly what you'd expect from what the indicators are right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted October 18, 2019 Share Posted October 18, 2019 I dont think I have ever atleast in 10 years seen a winter outlook from them with cold anywhere. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 18, 2019 Share Posted October 18, 2019 Personally don't really care to see "blue" lol We live in upstate NY, no need for negative anomalies.. The forecast is slightly warmer than"equal chances", which is fine by me.. Looks like they may expect a lot of Northern stream disturbances/clippers with the precipitation outlook.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted October 19, 2019 Share Posted October 19, 2019 29.8 here right now. Growing season should be over with a heavy frost. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 19, 2019 Share Posted October 19, 2019 Some LR goodies.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted October 19, 2019 Share Posted October 19, 2019 12 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: There have been some torch years, but yeah, they don’t like to predict cold lol NOAA is to focused as I stated yesterday on ENSO alone. The other variables might as well be voodoo or black magic. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted October 19, 2019 Share Posted October 19, 2019 End of the month is definitely trending quite cold with a decent elevation based lake response (snow) starting to show up on the GFS. Still way out but somewhat unusual to see in October even for fantasy land. Better get your snow tires on buffaloweather, we might be sending you on some chases sooner than normal! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted October 19, 2019 Share Posted October 19, 2019 3 hours ago, DeltaT13 said: End of the month is definitely trending quite cold with a decent elevation based lake response (snow) starting to show up on the GFS. Still way out but somewhat unusual to see in October even for fantasy land. Better get your snow tires on buffaloweather, we might be sending you on some chases sooner than normal! 12z totally flipped the script which lines up much better with the last several runs of the Euro showing well above average heights with a Eastern US ridge setting up towards months end. May need to break out the shorts towards Halloween if the Euro is correct. Probably some nice mid/upper 60s if it pans out. Hope it’s wrong but did not like seeing the GFS totally abandon ship and cave to the consistent Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 21, 2019 Share Posted October 21, 2019 We have some more mod-heavy rainfall on the way over the next 24-48 hours.. Look at that heavy LER near kbuf lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 21, 2019 Share Posted October 21, 2019 So far in October we have just under 5" liquid, needless to say October will be quite a wet month... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted October 21, 2019 Share Posted October 21, 2019 On 10/19/2019 at 3:27 PM, WesterlyWx said: 12z totally flipped the script which lines up much better with the last several runs of the Euro showing well above average heights with a Eastern US ridge setting up towards months end. May need to break out the shorts towards Halloween if the Euro is correct. Probably some nice mid/upper 60s if it pans out. Hope it’s wrong but did not like seeing the GFS totally abandon ship and cave to the consistent Euro. It will end up in the middle of the 2...won't be as warm as the euro and won't be as cold as the GFS...avg to a bit below average temps...ill say this much...if you give me a storm track like the one shaping up I think there will be a lot of cutters with the chance for significant LES events in the metro just like last year...similar in the Bermuda high pushing the storm track more northerly. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted October 21, 2019 Share Posted October 21, 2019 1 hour ago, Thinksnow18 said: It will end up in the middle of the 2...won't be as warm as the euro and won't be as cold as the GFS...avg to a bit below average temps...ill say this much...if you give me a storm track like the one shaping up I think there will be a lot of cutters with the chance for significant LES events in the metro just like last year...similar in the Bermuda high pushing the storm track more northerly. Wouldn't we rather have a warm mid-fall time as it will keep those lake temps a bit warmer for when the real cold air comes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted October 21, 2019 Share Posted October 21, 2019 23 minutes ago, vortmax said: Wouldn't we rather have a warm mid-fall time as it will keep those lake temps a bit warmer for when the real cold air comes? You know I'm on the fence on that. I've heard both arguments and from what I recall the numbers say we don't see much of an influence from warmer lake waters earlier. I do know that the greater difference in lapse rates happen in the late fall early winter when sharp Arctic intrusions happen over the warmer waters 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted October 21, 2019 Share Posted October 21, 2019 2 hours ago, vortmax said: Wouldn't we rather have a warm mid-fall time as it will keep those lake temps a bit warmer for when the real cold air comes? Transient bouts of early season cold do not seem to have any real impact on long term average lake temps. I'll take an early season teaser, its been awhile 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 21, 2019 Author Share Posted October 21, 2019 I'm back from exploring Peru, a magical place in which the elevation kills you. Also contracted a parasite that shut me down for 2 days down there. Otherwise a fantastic trip! Video: https://imgur.com/BUYpueS 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 21, 2019 Author Share Posted October 21, 2019 The Peruvian glaciers at this location 14000 feet where I am standing, looking up to over 19,000 are melting extremely quickly. https://earthsky.org/earth/disappearing-peruvian-glaciers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 22, 2019 Share Posted October 22, 2019 Small window around Halloween to see our 1st flakes... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 22, 2019 Share Posted October 22, 2019 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 22, 2019 Author Share Posted October 22, 2019 Yeah Wolf first snow is definitely coming soon, especially out your way. The Yankees though... =( 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted October 22, 2019 Share Posted October 22, 2019 Maybe it will be a white Halloween after all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted October 22, 2019 Share Posted October 22, 2019 12z is really efforting on Halloween to get the WNY area what looks to be everyone's first flakes due to a shortwave and lake enhanced/hybrid. Not buying in just an observation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted October 22, 2019 Share Posted October 22, 2019 3 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said: Maybe it will be a white Halloween after all. I just posted the text version of that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 22, 2019 Share Posted October 22, 2019 Moderate to heavy rain inching closer.. Currently just some drizzle.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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