SouthBuffaloSteve Posted October 14, 2019 Share Posted October 14, 2019 Front load the Bills home games early in the season they said... No one wants to travel to Buffalo for a snow game in December they said...GFS fantasy land says think again... Maybe... ???. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 Starting to get to that time of year. I do consider november the start of winter. And dont get to excited about snow until then. Hope every one in the sub forum gets a big snow year. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 The storm lurking around day 7 absolutely goes off the charts every few runs. 18z today was no exception. If a track like that ever verified at this time of year there would be some extreme tree damage from winds. Just a textbook track. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 Some fantasy land gfs.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 10 hours ago, DeltaT13 said: The storm lurking around day 7 absolutely goes off the charts every few runs. 18z today was no exception. If a track like that ever verified at this time of year there would be some extreme tree damage from winds. Just a textbook track. Hopefully the leaves are off by then if this happens! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 To bad not a month later. South shore foot easy 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeyes_Suck Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 1 hour ago, vortmax said: Hopefully the leaves are off by then if this happens! One of these days were going to get a storm like this and all of these standing dead ash are going to come down. I had three come down during last falls long duration event, plus a huge cherry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 Euro has a good amount of liquid over the next 48-72 hours.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 5 hours ago, tim123 said: To bad not a month later. South shore foot easy More of these to come...fun times ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 Teleconnections (click on the pic for the latest one - it's not showing the right one for some reason): Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 Add the cold biased NAM to a very powerful storm with a period of strong dynamic cooling and some models are hinting at a high peaks dump! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 16, 2019 Share Posted October 16, 2019 Just hoping to see some flakes by months end.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted October 16, 2019 Share Posted October 16, 2019 Ok...fresh off my phone being repaired during the last 5 days, I ask you all...why is the chatter on this site not exploding with what the models have been showing the past 5 days?!?!?! All 3 models are really coming into focus on a huge cold dump after/around the 24th and it has been consistent...im not certain that it will snow or anything organized but the cold will be there in the timeframe through Halloween at least...sign of things to come or just an early surprise??? 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 16, 2019 Share Posted October 16, 2019 If you're ever bored take a look at the snow depth for the past 65-70 years lol https://youtu.be/YwehzWN4c_g 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted October 16, 2019 Share Posted October 16, 2019 Ok...fresh off my phone being repaired during the last 5 days, I ask you all...why is the chatter on this site not exploding with what the models have been showing the past 5 days?!?!?! All 3 models are really coming into focus on a huge cold dump after/around the 24th and it has been consistent...im not certain that it will snow or anything organized but the cold will be there in the timeframe through Halloween at least...sign of things to come or just an early surprise???Trying to stay reserved so early into the season. Certainly looks interesting but the details are all over the place. I will however get a TINY bit excited that the GFS has held the idea our first possible LES event for two consecutive runs now today. Bring this out of fantasy range and then it’s game on!. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 16, 2019 Share Posted October 16, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted October 16, 2019 Share Posted October 16, 2019 Firing up! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted October 16, 2019 Share Posted October 16, 2019 Hello again to all. Just back from a few weeks in western and central Europe, where the weather was changeable and generally similar to here. It's that time of year and won't be long now before flakes are flying. IIRC, a weak/neutral ENSO winter usually provides good winter results in upstate NY. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted October 16, 2019 Share Posted October 16, 2019 Pretty decent lake response off Erie already. In and out of some heavy downpours with these cells. Meh... Hmm what the heck can’t seem to get these GIFs uploading into animation today. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted October 16, 2019 Share Posted October 16, 2019 Lake band really getting its act together, I don’t remember models really showing this well organized a band of lake effect. Really coming down in West Seneca, really windy too. Definitely feels like fall now! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted October 16, 2019 Share Posted October 16, 2019 Lake band really getting its act together, I don’t remember models really showing this well organized a band of lake effect. Really coming down in West Seneca, really windy too. Definitely feels like fall now! Looks like this will be the last shot coming on shore over the next hour. Winds are quickly turning WNW near Long Point. Models noted a brief cellular band into the metro... to quick of an event to really verify.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted October 16, 2019 Share Posted October 16, 2019 Dang! Knew I should have went down to spout watch! Nice waterspout just off shore from downtown.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 17, 2019 Share Posted October 17, 2019 1.5" liquid so far and pouring... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted October 17, 2019 Share Posted October 17, 2019 5 hours ago, Syrmax said: Hello again to all. Just back from a few weeks in western and central Europe, where the weather was changeable and generally similar to here. It's that time of year and won't be long now before flakes are flying. IIRC, a weak/neutral ENSO winter usually provides good winter results in upstate NY. Hey there, neighbor. Looking forward to talking winter weather! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted October 17, 2019 Share Posted October 17, 2019 2 hours ago, TugHillMatt said: Hey there, neighbor. Looking forward to talking winter weather! I see you moved south! Yes we are not far apart. It's almost time to start praying for WNW flow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted October 17, 2019 Share Posted October 17, 2019 Decent banding with the coastal, has same banding signature as several major snowstorms in past years (Oneonta to Herkimer area). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattny88 Posted October 17, 2019 Share Posted October 17, 2019 hey there syrmax..looking into relocating in phoenix...is the phoenix area more comparable to fulton or clay (route 31 corridor) when it comes to lake effect snowfall.. i know its sandwiched right in between the two as the transient town from which route 481 connects them i just didnt know what your experience has been like living in clay vs phoenix and in relation to fulton....didnt know if that wnw lake band that desposits over fulton usually extend down into phoenix most of the time during the 2-3 ft lake storms that fulton receives from time to time?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 17, 2019 Share Posted October 17, 2019 This would of been one heck of a winter storm... 2.75" liquid and still going... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted October 17, 2019 Share Posted October 17, 2019 12 hours ago, mattny88 said: hey there syrmax..looking into relocating in phoenix...is the phoenix area more comparable to fulton or clay (route 31 corridor) when it comes to lake effect snowfall.. i know its sandwiched right in between the two as the transient town from which route 481 connects them i just didnt know what your experience has been like living in clay vs phoenix and in relation to fulton....didnt know if that wnw lake band that desposits over fulton usually extend down into phoenix most of the time during the 2-3 ft lake storms that fulton receives from time to time?? That's an interesting call, as it is with a lot of LES. I'd say northern Phoenix probably gets the better LES when a band is hitting Fulton. Lots of variables with any given event though. The PHX school district sticks pretty far north from the town itself, which is why some snow days happen for school when conditions don't seem all that bad closer to the river. From what I recall (and Wolfie is probably more expert than i am), when Fulton gets hammered, it doesn't necessarily mean Phoenix will, though north of the town center might. As a thumb rule, mile for mile north of the river does best over the course of a winter. As you get further south from me, less so, though Liverpool, B'ville etc still get their fare share of LES events. A lot of the LES in my vicinity tends to be somewhat transient. We don't usually get the 12+ hour significant dumps as winds tend to veer and are less stable when pointed our way. So we get a lot of 3-8" events that last and hour to maybe 4 hours, which are generally manageable to get around in as snow removal around here is really good. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted October 17, 2019 Share Posted October 17, 2019 Snowing hard in the high peaks of NY and Vermont this morning. Exciting stuff!! I'm ready 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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