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NNE Cold Season Thread


wxeyeNH
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5 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I’m heading back north to Stowe but friends are saying it’s the first accumulation in Stowe.  

I bet a lot of the valleys around here are getting their first accumulations of the season today.  It sounds like we’ll be in the flow for much of the afternoon/evening, so there should be continuing chances for rain/snow until some weak high pressure builds in overnight:

 

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Burlington VT

1204 PM EST Sun Nov 3 2019

 

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

With the mid-level trough passage, weak high pressure builds

ewd across the North Country tonight with chances for rain/snow

showers diminishing below 10% early. Will see some breaks in

the clouds overnight, but prevailing WSWLY flow will maintain

some stratus at times.

 

I just checked the gauge and thus far we’re at 0.2” snow/0.06” liquid for the event, which I’ve got in my records as “Weak mid-level trough moving in from Great Lakes bringing lake-effect moisture on WSW flow”.  It’s starting to feel much more like one of those cold season days with the mountains grabbing moisture in the flow - we’ll get a bit of sun and it will seem like things are tapering down, and then it will quickly cloud up and start pouring mixed precipitation with a change in wind.

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27 minutes ago, J.Spin said:

I thought today was just going to be a bit cloudier version of yesterday, but to that I can give a definite “nope”.  This morning I’d raked a few remaining leaves into some small piles that I was going to collect later today, but about 15 minutes ago the wind picked up to the point that it was starting to scatter them.  I quick ran around and collected the piles, but of course with the wind came a bout of heavy mixed precipitation that got everything soaked pretty quickly and brought another round of transient accumulation:

03NOV19B.gif

Thanks for the radar grab J.

Sounds like the Notch is a mess.  

AB2645FF-4B33-412C-8ECD-D06E92C985DD.jpeg.6ba417f808d1f218b778764284ae0be5.jpeg

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5 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Thanks for the radar grab J.

Sounds like the Notch is a mess.  

AB2645FF-4B33-412C-8ECD-D06E92C985DD.jpeg.6ba417f808d1f218b778764284ae0be5.jpeg

Happy to help; just holding down the fort alone while you’re out of town.  Hopefully they can get folks that are having difficulty cleared out of the notch before too long.  You can see that there’s certainly more upstream moisture that could push into the area this afternoon, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see the elevations pick up some additional accumulation:

03NOV19C.gif

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Shout out to BTV who continues to mention snowmaking in their AFD's... always great to see them thinking of the local ski areas. 

Now we just need Legro to start popping that stuff into GYX AFD's, ha.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 612 PM EST Tuesday...Updated forecast to increase pops
along and east of the central/northern Green Mountains for the
next 1 to 2 hours. Radar shows weak line of showers along sfc
cold front just approaching the western slopes. This will
continue to push east and dissipate or be east of our cwa by 8
PM. Rainfall with this fropa will be less than a tenth of an
inch. We received 0.02 here at BTV. Otherwise, temps gradually
cool behind boundary with modest low level caa on southwest
winds. Did note Whiteface down to 25f already, which could help
snow making operations at area resorts overnight. Temps trends
and winds look reasonable, based on current obs.
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We’re starting to close in on this next potential snow event, and the BTV NWS is putting out their latest projected accumulations.  Our point forecast currently suggests something in the 3-5” range from Thursday through Friday.  The short term discussion below suggests accumulations a bit leaner than that down at our elevation, but it presumably doesn’t include any snow from the upper level shortwave behind that system that comes through on Friday.

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

As of 336 AM EST Wednesday...Polar front and weak systems traversing along its periphery is on track to bring the first widespread snowfall to many parts of interior New England. Based on the latest data, about a 0.5"-2.0" are possible across the valleys, with 2-6" across higher terrain with locally higher amounts at the peaks.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

As of 336 AM EST Wednesday...Friday morning should start out mostly dry with polar air advecting into the region. A subtle upper shortwave will dig behind the departing system. With sufficient moisture and 50-100 J/kg of CAPE, anticipate the development of snow showers on Friday afternoon. Dry adiabatic lapse rates extend to 700mb, so a few of these snow showers could produce brief, moderate snowfall with 25-35 mph gusts that could cause brief drops in visibilities.

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Regarding tomorrow’s snow, I’ve got the latest projected accumulations map from the BTV NWS as of today’s afternoon update.  They’ve got the mountain valleys around here in the 4-6” shading, which is probably a bit higher than what our point forecast would suggest, but this does include the additional potential snow on Friday, where they’ve increased PoPs associated with that snow shower activity.

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

As of 302 PM EST Wednesday...A shortwave will act to reinforce the eastern periphery of the upper level trough as it moves through the North Country on Friday. This will act to reinforce large scale ascent throughout the day with strong convergence ahead of this feature. In addition, temperatures in the boundary layer and through the entire column will continue to cool throughout the day. This will yield increasing low-level and mid-level lapse rates that will lead to additional snow shower activity throughout the day. Based on the latest guidance, PoPs have been increased across the forecast area to account for scattered to possibly widespread snow showers on Friday.

06NOV19A.jpg

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Last year right around this time I had my first decent snow.  From that point on except for a brief period around Christmas I had constant snow cover until spring.  Can NNE do it again?  Although it's a small system the rain/snow line will be right through the Plymouth NH area.  Will be interesting for me to watch what happens tomorrow PM.  For everyone north of me, congrats....

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I was in shorts and a t-shirt today and as i was coming into work someone walking out said, "jesus you think it's summer?" and I didnt think anything of it because it's what I always do, suck it up until it's too much.   By the time i left today I was cold walking back to the car.   I thought hmmm, it's time for long sleeves.  I will definitely wear long sleeves as another layer tomorrow.  Looking forward to our snow.

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16 hours ago, wxeyeNH said:

Last year right around this time I had my first decent snow.  From that point on except for a brief period around Christmas I had constant snow cover until spring.  Can NNE do it again?  Although it's a small system the rain/snow line will be right through the Plymouth NH area.  Will be interesting for me to watch what happens tomorrow PM.  For everyone north of me, congrats....

Woke up last Nov. 10 to see 2" on the ground.  Did not see bare ground at the stake until April 21 - 162 consecutive days with 1"+, which is 20 days longer than any other such streak here.  Not sure that whatever we get today/tonight will survive Sunday's 40s, but if the Tuesday event holds together it might be the start of another long run of white ground.  (Unless it's stolen by a super-Grinch.) 

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