J.Spin Posted November 3, 2019 Share Posted November 3, 2019 5 minutes ago, powderfreak said: I’m heading back north to Stowe but friends are saying it’s the first accumulation in Stowe. I bet a lot of the valleys around here are getting their first accumulations of the season today. It sounds like we’ll be in the flow for much of the afternoon/evening, so there should be continuing chances for rain/snow until some weak high pressure builds in overnight: Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 1204 PM EST Sun Nov 3 2019 .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... With the mid-level trough passage, weak high pressure builds ewd across the North Country tonight with chances for rain/snow showers diminishing below 10% early. Will see some breaks in the clouds overnight, but prevailing WSWLY flow will maintain some stratus at times. I just checked the gauge and thus far we’re at 0.2” snow/0.06” liquid for the event, which I’ve got in my records as “Weak mid-level trough moving in from Great Lakes bringing lake-effect moisture on WSW flow”. It’s starting to feel much more like one of those cold season days with the mountains grabbing moisture in the flow - we’ll get a bit of sun and it will seem like things are tapering down, and then it will quickly cloud up and start pouring mixed precipitation with a change in wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 3, 2019 Share Posted November 3, 2019 27 minutes ago, J.Spin said: I thought today was just going to be a bit cloudier version of yesterday, but to that I can give a definite “nope”. This morning I’d raked a few remaining leaves into some small piles that I was going to collect later today, but about 15 minutes ago the wind picked up to the point that it was starting to scatter them. I quick ran around and collected the piles, but of course with the wind came a bout of heavy mixed precipitation that got everything soaked pretty quickly and brought another round of transient accumulation: Thanks for the radar grab J. Sounds like the Notch is a mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted November 3, 2019 Share Posted November 3, 2019 5 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Thanks for the radar grab J. Sounds like the Notch is a mess. Happy to help; just holding down the fort alone while you’re out of town. Hopefully they can get folks that are having difficulty cleared out of the notch before too long. You can see that there’s certainly more upstream moisture that could push into the area this afternoon, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see the elevations pick up some additional accumulation: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alex Posted November 3, 2019 Share Posted November 3, 2019 Just got here! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 3, 2019 Share Posted November 3, 2019 Wow nice guys. Pretty sweet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted November 3, 2019 Share Posted November 3, 2019 Flurry here at the moment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alex Posted November 3, 2019 Share Posted November 3, 2019 Not sure why my images are posting in the wrong orientation since the iOS upgrade... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 3, 2019 Share Posted November 3, 2019 A friends photo from Smugglers Notch uphill from the Stowe/Cambridge line area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 3, 2019 Share Posted November 3, 2019 Driving back to Stowe, we caught some awesome views of Mt Mansfield from the west side as the clouds cleared briefly and the sun lowered. The great atmospheric speed bump. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted November 4, 2019 Share Posted November 4, 2019 Is there a problem with some pics not showing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 Shout out to BTV who continues to mention snowmaking in their AFD's... always great to see them thinking of the local ski areas. Now we just need Legro to start popping that stuff into GYX AFD's, ha. .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 612 PM EST Tuesday...Updated forecast to increase pops along and east of the central/northern Green Mountains for the next 1 to 2 hours. Radar shows weak line of showers along sfc cold front just approaching the western slopes. This will continue to push east and dissipate or be east of our cwa by 8 PM. Rainfall with this fropa will be less than a tenth of an inch. We received 0.02 here at BTV. Otherwise, temps gradually cool behind boundary with modest low level caa on southwest winds. Did note Whiteface down to 25f already, which could help snow making operations at area resorts overnight. Temps trends and winds look reasonable, based on current obs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 We’re starting to close in on this next potential snow event, and the BTV NWS is putting out their latest projected accumulations. Our point forecast currently suggests something in the 3-5” range from Thursday through Friday. The short term discussion below suggests accumulations a bit leaner than that down at our elevation, but it presumably doesn’t include any snow from the upper level shortwave behind that system that comes through on Friday. .SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 336 AM EST Wednesday...Polar front and weak systems traversing along its periphery is on track to bring the first widespread snowfall to many parts of interior New England. Based on the latest data, about a 0.5"-2.0" are possible across the valleys, with 2-6" across higher terrain with locally higher amounts at the peaks. .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 336 AM EST Wednesday...Friday morning should start out mostly dry with polar air advecting into the region. A subtle upper shortwave will dig behind the departing system. With sufficient moisture and 50-100 J/kg of CAPE, anticipate the development of snow showers on Friday afternoon. Dry adiabatic lapse rates extend to 700mb, so a few of these snow showers could produce brief, moderate snowfall with 25-35 mph gusts that could cause brief drops in visibilities. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 Regarding tomorrow’s snow, I’ve got the latest projected accumulations map from the BTV NWS as of today’s afternoon update. They’ve got the mountain valleys around here in the 4-6” shading, which is probably a bit higher than what our point forecast would suggest, but this does include the additional potential snow on Friday, where they’ve increased PoPs associated with that snow shower activity. .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 302 PM EST Wednesday...A shortwave will act to reinforce the eastern periphery of the upper level trough as it moves through the North Country on Friday. This will act to reinforce large scale ascent throughout the day with strong convergence ahead of this feature. In addition, temperatures in the boundary layer and through the entire column will continue to cool throughout the day. This will yield increasing low-level and mid-level lapse rates that will lead to additional snow shower activity throughout the day. Based on the latest guidance, PoPs have been increased across the forecast area to account for scattered to possibly widespread snow showers on Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alex Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 Not a bad forecast for mid November Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 Oh god, I'm not ready 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 6 minutes ago, #NoPoles said: Oh god, I'm not ready Lol. Too late to turn back now! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted November 6, 2019 Author Share Posted November 6, 2019 Last year right around this time I had my first decent snow. From that point on except for a brief period around Christmas I had constant snow cover until spring. Can NNE do it again? Although it's a small system the rain/snow line will be right through the Plymouth NH area. Will be interesting for me to watch what happens tomorrow PM. For everyone north of me, congrats.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alex Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 55 minutes ago, #NoPoles said: Oh god, I'm not ready Well the good news is that you’ve got 6 months to get used to it 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 7, 2019 Share Posted November 7, 2019 2 hours ago, #NoPoles said: Oh god, I'm not ready Time to get your LSC blood back to handle the -30s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted November 7, 2019 Share Posted November 7, 2019 1 hour ago, dendrite said: Time to get your LSC blood back to handle the -30s. Only if I can have the youth and vigor of being 18 again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmcginvt Posted November 7, 2019 Share Posted November 7, 2019 I was in shorts and a t-shirt today and as i was coming into work someone walking out said, "jesus you think it's summer?" and I didnt think anything of it because it's what I always do, suck it up until it's too much. By the time i left today I was cold walking back to the car. I thought hmmm, it's time for long sleeves. I will definitely wear long sleeves as another layer tomorrow. Looking forward to our snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alex Posted November 7, 2019 Share Posted November 7, 2019 This first round is not looking so exciting 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 7, 2019 Share Posted November 7, 2019 Looks good in Pittsburg right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted November 7, 2019 Author Share Posted November 7, 2019 Good Morning NNE. 35/28 This morning clown Kuchera total snowfall over the next 10 days. All ski areas at 100% for Thanksgiving? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 7, 2019 Share Posted November 7, 2019 36.6/29 Just wanna see some flakes today. Roof to the run is finished and now I just need to get the side panels up to keep the wind out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
backedgeapproaching Posted November 7, 2019 Share Posted November 7, 2019 Looks to be ripping pretty good on Stratton Summit cam at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted November 7, 2019 Share Posted November 7, 2019 16 hours ago, wxeyeNH said: Last year right around this time I had my first decent snow. From that point on except for a brief period around Christmas I had constant snow cover until spring. Can NNE do it again? Although it's a small system the rain/snow line will be right through the Plymouth NH area. Will be interesting for me to watch what happens tomorrow PM. For everyone north of me, congrats.... Woke up last Nov. 10 to see 2" on the ground. Did not see bare ground at the stake until April 21 - 162 consecutive days with 1"+, which is 20 days longer than any other such streak here. Not sure that whatever we get today/tonight will survive Sunday's 40s, but if the Tuesday event holds together it might be the start of another long run of white ground. (Unless it's stolen by a super-Grinch.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted November 7, 2019 Author Share Posted November 7, 2019 Very light rain just started 38.3/28 Bit hard to see but looks to be snowing at the top of the ridgeline to my west at 2300 or so feet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted November 7, 2019 Share Posted November 7, 2019 I see that it’s snowing now here in BTV - some of the flakes are a bit granular with rime on them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted November 7, 2019 Author Share Posted November 7, 2019 I had saved this webcam in my favorites but never labeled it. Does anyone know where this is? Colebrook, Pittsburg NH? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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