NNE Cold Season Thread

[J.Spin]

10 hours ago, powderfreak said:

We finished with a 40" storm total at the High Road Snow Plot.

I’ve added the updated Mansfield Stake Plot from Matt Parrilla’s site below, which incorporates yesterday’s addition.  We had more snow overnight here at the house and it’s snowing decently right now, and I’m sure Mansfield has gotten some as well, but it’s been pretty fluffy stuff so I don’t know if it will enhance the snowpack depth very much.

[powderfreak]

Sad news from the search and rescue last night.  

The backcountry terrain around here is no joke, sounds like they were from CT and familiar with Stowe.  One skier found deceased under cliffs and his friend found alive on top of the cliffs.  

        

CASE#:20A101038

RANK/TROOPER FULL NAME:Det. Sgt. Jacob Metayer                              

STATION: Williston                    

CONTACT#: 802-878-7111

 

DATE/TIME: 18:40 02/29/20

INCIDENT LOCATION: Cambridge, VT - Smugglers Notch State Park

VIOLATION:n/a

 

VICTIM: Name of the victim is being withheld pending notification of next of kin

AGE: 36

CITY, STATE OF RESIDENCE: Connecticut

 

SUMMARY OF INCIDENT:

On 02/29/20 at 18:36 the Vermont State Police-Williston barracks received a 911 call reporting two skiers had gone off of the trail at Stowe Mountain Resort.  They were lost and one of the two skiers had fallen off of a cliff and was injured.  

Members from the State Police, Stowe Mountain Rescue, Colchester Technical Rescue, Cambridge Fire Department and several members of the Army Mountain Warfare School responded to begin searching for the skiers.  

 

After a search lasting over 2 hours, the two skiers were found.  One of the skiers, a 36 year old male from Connecticut, was found at the base of a cliff deceased.  The other skier was a 35 year old male also from Connecticut.  He was found to be uninjured and was assisted out of the woods by rescue personnel.  

 

The two skiers were reported to be avid skiers who were familiar with the Stowe Mountain Resort.  

 

The names of the involved parties are being withheld pending notification of the next of kin. 

[CoastalWx]

That snow was incredible. How often are those amounts occurring? I know it was a long duration, but that was probably upper echelon stuff I assume. 

[J.Spin]

34 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That snow was incredible. How often are those amounts occurring? I know it was a long duration, but that was probably upper echelon stuff I assume. 

In that specific duration, or for full storm cycles in general?  I posted the approximate numbers earlier in the thread using extrapolation from my data:  36-40” storm cycles on Mansfield should be roughly a once-a-year occurrence.  I would defer to PF for more exact numbers, but I don’t believe he typically tracks snowfall by specific storm cycles/events the way I do with mine.

[J.Spin]

42 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That snow was incredible. How often are those amounts occurring? I know it was a long duration, but that was probably upper echelon stuff I assume. 

 

On 2/5/2020 at 1:56 PM, J.Spin said:

Correlating data from my site, Mansfield at PF’s ~3,000’ plot should be averaging roughly three storm cycles per season with >24”, two per season with >30”, one per season >36”, one per season >40”, and a cycle of >48” about every other season. 

 

[J.Spin]

I’ve updated the north to south listing with what appear to be the final totals from the Vermont ski areas for Winter Storm Odell with what I’ve found today.  Storm totals topped out in the 30-40” range in the Northern Greens, 10-20” in the Central Greens, and 2-6” in the Southern Greens.  This was definitely one of those events with a notable disparity between the northern and southern areas of the spine.

 

Jay Peak: 38”

Smuggler’s Notch: 36”

Stowe: 40”

Bolton Valley: 30”

Mad River Glen: 20”

Sugarbush: 11”

Pico: 11”

Killington: 11”

Okemo: 2”

Bromley: 6”

Magic Mountain: 4”

Stratton: 6”

Mount Snow: 6”

[CoastalWx]

14 minutes ago, J.Spin said:

 

 

Thanks Jspin. I missed some of those posts. What a great weekend for skiing. Bummed I won’t be able to go this year,  but will set aside time next year. We have Family going up to Smuggs and Sugarbush next weekend. 

[mreaves]

2 hours ago, J.Spin said:

I’ve updated the north to south listing with what appear to be the final totals from the Vermont ski areas for Winter Storm Odell with what I’ve found today.  Storm totals topped out in the 30-40” range in the Northern Greens, 10-20” in the Central Greens, and 2-6” in the Southern Greens.  This was definitely one of those events with a notable disparity between the northern and southern areas of the spine.

 

Jay Peak: 38”

Smuggler’s Notch: 36”

Stowe: 40”

Bolton Valley: 30”

Mad River Glen: 20”

Sugarbush: 11”

Pico: 11”

Killington: 11”

Okemo: 2”

Bromley: 6”

Magic Mountain: 4”

Stratton: 6”

Mount Snow: 6”

No report from Burke?

[powderfreak]

4 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Thanks Jspin. I missed some of those posts. What a great weekend for skiing. Bummed I won’t be able to go this year,  but will set aside time next year. We have Family going up to Smuggs and Sugarbush next weekend. 

I think I’d put this more rare than JSpin’s cycle summaries, but then again maybe not?  It really comes down to what a cycle is though...can easily get 40” in a snowy week that’s a “cycle”.  Then again we’ve had some whoppers lately, we were 50”+ at High Road during March 2017 “Stella” and then last March was 30+ I think over a couple days.  

Any substantial storm that has a big upslope response over a couple days can get there.  

I think this one felt more like an event to me where we’ve sometimes wondered “what would happen if a big 30-40” lake effect event happened on a mountain and not the Tug Hill?”  I bet we got 1” of water for the first 10” of snow, then 1” of water for the last 30” of snow.  

[Fozz]

Another great day at Stowe, with packed powder conditions and perfect temps.

PS: Apparently the images have weird dimensions when I’m on my phone. If you double click then you’ll see them as they should be.







[J.Spin]

Event totals: 2.5” Snow/0.05” L.E.

 

We’ve cleared out, so this should mark the end of this event.

 

Details from the 6:00 P.M. Waterbury observations:

New Snow: 0.5 inches

New Liquid: Trace

Temperature: 18.7 F

Sky:  Mostly Clear

Snow at the stake: 14.0 inches

[J.Spin]

Event totals: 0.2” Snow/Trace L.E.

 

I found 0.2” of snow on the boards this morning, which the BTV NWS forecast discussion indicates is in association with warm air advection from this next frontal system coming into the area

 

Details from the 6:00 P.M. Waterbury observations:

New Snow: 0.2 inches

New Liquid: Trace

Temperature: 22.4 F

Sky:  Cloudy

Snow at the stake: 14.0 inches

[powderfreak]

Someone posted this elsewhere on social but figured it’s worth a share... I’ve never seen a photo of the original Mansfield COOP set up.  Here you can see the thermometer house and snow/precip bucket.

[ChasingFlakes]

What are you guys thinking in terms of upslope totals wed-thurs along the spine?  Doesn't look like anything special, fast moving so only 12-18 hrs of upslope which is just enough time to get something going. The track of the low is providing mainly NW flow which still works for the northern greens due to the NNE orientation of the spine but definitely not ideal.  I'm gonna guess 6-8 at elevation.  I think theres room for more or less though.  

[dendrite]

12 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Someone posted this elsewhere on social but figured it’s worth a share... I’ve never seen a photo of the original Mansfield COOP set up.  Here you can see the thermometer house and snow/precip bucket.

[powderfreak]

43 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Perfect!  

[J.Spin]

3 hours ago, ChasingFlakes said:

What are you guys thinking in terms of upslope totals wed-thurs along the spine?  Doesn't look like anything special, fast moving so only 12-18 hrs of upslope which is just enough time to get something going. The track of the low is providing mainly NW flow which still works for the northern greens due to the NNE orientation of the spine but definitely not ideal.  I'm gonna guess 6-8 at elevation.  I think there's room for more or less though.  

From a quick look at the models, I think at least a few inches at elevation through 00 Z Friday is quite likely.  Right now the BTV NWS forecast discussion mentions 1-4” from late tonight into Wednesday, and then some additional snow showers Wednesday night into Thursday in their discussion.  Something like 4-6” wouldn’t surprise me, so the potential is there for some fresh snow-enhanced conditions on the slopes in the Wednesday-Thursday time period.  Up above 3,000’ or so, temperatures look to be below freezing right into the weekend once they come down overnight.

After that it looks like there’s some snow potential for Friday night with that northern stream system.  As someone mentioned in the discussion thread, it would be kind of nice to see what it would do if it wasn’t under the influence of that developing low off the coast and just came through as a Northern Greens bread and butter sort of system, but maybe some inverted trough type of setup could be beneficial.

In any event it looks like the slopes have a couple of potential shots going as we head through the next few days, and as always it will be fun to see what the mountains do with the moisture.

[J.Spin]

A few shots from Friday/weekend skiing at Bolton in association with Winter Storm Odell:

[mreaves]

Was up in the NEK today. Lots of snow at elevation. Beautiful day to be outside. 

[dendrite]

Pack is down to 6-7" this evening. It's currently 50/41 at 7pm and the pack is ripe for a beating.

[#NoPoles]

Alex has started tapping his maples...I tried to help and broke the drill bit on my first tree...sigh...this is why we cant have nice things

[J.Spin]

At observations time this morning the precipitation was a mix of what appeared to be granular flakes, graupel, and maybe some sleet, so snow levels are back down to the lower mountain valleys.  The forecast suggests chances for light snow over the next couple of days, but daytime temperatures seem pretty marginal for much accumulation in the valleys.

[dryslot]

Good move by GYX for this new zone, Those areas are just below the foothill region and many times forecast were under forecast from the Interior Cumberland zone.

000
NOUS41 KGYX 031650
PNSGYX
MEZ007>009-012>014-018>028-033-NHZ001>015-032300-

Public Information Statement
National Weather Service Gray ME
1150 AM EST Tue Mar 3 2020

...Changes to National Weather Service Gray Forecast Zones...

Effective today at 1200 PM Eastern Standard Time, one county
public and fire weather forecast zone for NWS Weather Forecast
Office Gray, ME, will be adjusted into different zones. The
Interior Cumberland segment of Cumberland County, ME, will be
split along a line at Naples Town Center, southwest to Sebago and
northeast to Casco. This change will result in county segments of
Interior Cumberland Highlands and Central Interior forecast zones.
The new Interior Cumberland Highlands weather forecast zone will
have a UGC identifier of MEZ033. This new zone will include the
towns of Harrison, Bridgton and Naples.

These changes are intended to provide increased flexibility and
improved accuracy of forecasts in the public and fire weather
programs. These changes will result in more geographically precise
forecasts as well as watch, and warning products for the public
and will enhance web-based graphical product consistency and
appearance.

[tamarack]

Good move.  NW Cumberland is radically different from the PWM area.

Numbers for Meh-bruary 2020

Avg max  30.4   +1.3    Mildest:  49 on the 24h/.  Coldest max:  14 in the snow on the 18th
Avg min:  7.5     +1.5    Coldest:  -28 on the 15th, 2nd coldest Feb morning here.   Mildest min:  27 on the 25th-26th
Avg temp:  19.0   +1.4

Precip:   3.26"   +0.19"   Biggest day:  1.42" of "stuff" on the 27th.

Snowfall:  17.9"   -5.1"   Biggest storm:  5.5" on 18-19.
Avg snowpack:  16.3"   -3.2"   Peaked at 21" on the 19th.

Not terrible but nothing memorable except perhaps that -28, though it was fake cold.

[ChasingFlakes]

6 hours ago, ChasingFlakes said:

Today I opted to break out the snowshoes snowboard to do some laps on Gilpin Mountain, which is adjacent to Jay Peak to the SE.  It tops out at 3,015 ft and the base parking area sits around 1,850 ft.  It was tough going through the rain crust.  But I stuck to the N aspect on my second run and the W winds helped blow the 3-4 inches that had fallen into that zone.  

First run on Gilpin: 2,150-2,750ft

Second run: 1,850ft to 3,015ft (Summit)

Looking towards the dip.

Bomb hole end of run 1

Run 2:

I believe I am crossing the catamount trail here.  

Pines start to really thicken above 2800ft

Looking E off the summit at 3,015ft.

 

[wxeyeNH]

My fields are now mostly snow free although the ground is still totally snow covered in the woods.

Deer are out having a lot of fun, being able to run on bare ground.   I made this 3 minute video of them late this afternoon.  They have so much personality.  Video starts slow but then they all get running around.

https://video.nest.com/clip/ef5bb5bef7cb4951b7c0c70af056cd3d.mp4

[SJonesWX]

11 hours ago, wxeyeNH said:

My fields are now mostly snow free although the ground is still totally snow covered in the woods.

Deer are out having a lot of fun, being able to run on bare ground.   I made this 3 minute video of them late this afternoon.  They have so much personality.  Video starts slow but then they all get running around.

https://video.nest.com/clip/ef5bb5bef7cb4951b7c0c70af056cd3d.mp4

great video. that one in the foreground towards the end of the video looked ike a dog running around. 

[wxeyeNH]

Steady light snow up here on the hill this PM    36.5F

[J.Spin]

Event totals: 0.6” Snow/0.01” L.E.

 

Details from the 10:00 P.M. Waterbury observations:

New Snow: 0.6 inches

New Liquid: 0.01 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 60.0

Snow Density: 1.7% H2O

Temperature: 32.5 F

Sky:  Light Snow (3 to 20 mm flakes)

Snow at the stake: 9.5 inches

[J.Spin]

Event totals: 0.9” Snow/0.02” L.E.

 

Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations:

New Snow: 0.3 inches

New Liquid: 0.01 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 30.0

Snow Density: 3.3% H2O

Temperature: 19.2 F

Sky:  Partly Cloudy

Snow at the stake: 9.5 inches

 

Based on the radar, it looks like this event is complete.  The next chance for snow is apparently Tuesday night on the back side of a midweek system, but there appear to be additional chances not too far on its heels with the progressive pattern:

 

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Burlington VT

622 AM EST Sat Mar 7 2020

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

System then exits east Tuesday night with any lingering showers tapering off over time and possibly ending as a little light snow, especially in elevated terrain. Lows in the upper 20s to mid 30s.

Looking further out the forecast becomes somewhat more uncertain due to timing differences among the 00Z global model output. Overall a progressive pattern will continue under fairly fast zonal flow and seasonably mild temperatures - not uncommon as we begin to pull out of deep winter and march toward early spring. Several other systems of weak to modest strength will likely affect the region with on and off rain/snow shower activity, though PoPs will be capped in the chance category given aforementioned model discrepancies and relatively light precipitation.