NNE Cold Season Thread

[J.Spin]

I’ve got the current maps from the BTV NWS associated with upcoming Winter Storm Ezekiel pasted below, and I suspect they’ll have some updates later today with their latest thoughts.

[alex]

Wintry day for sure with high in the mid teens and flurries continuing. 

[wxeyeNH]

1 hour ago, alex said:

Wintry day for sure with high in the mid teens and flurries continuing. 

....and on the other side of the NH notches not a cloud in the sky all day.   Next storm looks like it's shifting south a bit.  Maine may cash in late in the game but looks like a screw job for much of interior NNE.  Could be some epic amounts in SNE.

[borderwx]

Snow globe never stopped. High of 22 with a decent N wind, very December for the last day of November 

 

[mreaves]

4 hours ago, wxeyeNH said:

....and on the other side of the NH notches not a cloud in the sky all day.   Next storm looks like it's shifting south a bit.  Maine may cash in late in the game but looks like a screw job for much of interior NNE.  Could be some epic amounts in SNE.

Drove through your area taking the scenic route to the outlets in Tilton. I can confirm not a cloud in the sky. Pretty big waves on Newfound Lake with the wind. 

[alex]

4 hours ago, wxeyeNH said:

....and on the other side of the NH notches not a cloud in the sky all day.   Next storm looks like it's shifting south a bit.  Maine may cash in late in the game but looks like a screw job for much of interior NNE.  Could be some epic amounts in SNE.

Eh, don’t let it get to you. We’ll have our chances. 

[J.Spin]

Event totals: 0.7” Trace L.E.

 

There are still a few flakes fluttering by at times, but we’ve also had periods with sun this morning, and based on the radar it looks like the moist flow bringing the snow globe conditions has finally tapered off.  We picked up another tenth as of 10 PM in the evening, and then there were another couple tenths on the boards this morning, but unless something changes, the totals above should be it for this event.  All liquid analyses came in below 0.01” resulting in just a trace overall, although if the analysis had been done all at once it might have hit that measurable level.  In any event, the flakes have been fluffy and the accumulations quite dry, so there’s not much moisture in the snow to speak of.

 

Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations:

New Snow: 0.3 inches

New Liquid: Trace

Temperature: 9.3 F

Sky: Partly Clear

Snow at the stake: 2.0 inches

[J.Spin]

November Totals

Accumulating Events:  12

Snowfall:  17.8”

Liquid Equivalent: 6.00”

2019 Precipitation: 58.47”

 

At one point it looked like this November might try to rival last November with respect to snowfall, but now that the numbers are in, it’s not even in the same league.  I guess I forgot how snowy last November was, but with this November delivering only half the snow we saw last year, the contrast is quite stark.  This November was still a few inches above average with respect to total liquid and snowfall, but with +1 S.D. for snowfall at close to two feet, the month was well in the realm of normalcy.

Barring some highly anomalous warmth this December, this season’s period of continuous snowpack would be starting on November 8^th, which is definitely noteworthy and bested last season’s start date by two days.  This is of course more of a seasonal vs. a monthly stat though.

This November did have a noteworthy achievement with 12 accumulating snowfall events however, besting last season’s 10 events.  I haven’t checked to confirm, but I’m pretty sure that’s got to be tops in my records.  So although this November was relatively middle of the pack with respect to overall snowfall (rank #5), the below average temperatures did help to achieve an impressive number of accumulating events.  This month’s events are listed below:

1. 0.2” – (11/3) Weak mid-level trough moving in from Great Lakes bringing lake-effect moisture on WSW flow

2. 7.1” – (11/7) Strong cold front + associated shortwave, lake moisture & convective snow showers

3. 5.1” – (11/10) Winter Storm Caleb - surface low pressure tracking through New England

4. 0.4” – (11/14) Upper-level shortwave and associated warm front

5. 1.1” – (11/15) Cold front and associated squalls

6. 0.2” – (11/19) Warm coastal system merging with weaker Great Lakes low pressure

7. 0.9” – (11/20) Upper-level shortwave trough/inverted trough

8. 0.1” – (11/22) Warm/cold fronts from storm well NW of St. Lawrence Valley

9. 1.0” – (11/24) Coastal storm passing through southeastern Massachusetts

10. 0.9” – (11/27) Winter Storm Dorothy - low pressure passing NW of New England

11. 0.1” – (11/29) Snowfall from low level moisture

12. 0.7” – (11/30) Weak moisture boundary moving N to S over international border

[J.Spin]

Below I’ve got the updated maps from the BTV NWS associated with upcoming Winter Storm Ezekiel.  With this update, Winter Weather Advisories were pushed northward into Addison and Orange counties, and the some of the accumulation ranges were pushed northward accordingly.  Our area was in the 3-4” shading on the previous map, but with the northward push we’re on the edge of the 4-6” shading now.  It looks like the edges of the accumulation ranges have been refined a bit more to account for the cutoff on the northern edge of the storm, because some areas in the northern part of the state were tapered back a bit.  Our point forecast here suggests something in the 3-6” range for accumulations through Tuesday, which seems well in line with the current projected accumulations map.

[mreaves]

Nice summation JSpin. November has been a damn wintry month. BTV has been pretty steady with the 4” call for MPV and I’m good with that. 

[J.Spin]

33 minutes ago, mreaves said:

Nice summation JSpin. November has been a damn wintry month. BTV has been pretty steady with the 4” call for MPV and I’m good with that. 

Thanks, and I realized that having the dates for the various snow events would be helpful with respect to seeing how they were distributed throughout the month, so I updated the post with those.

Indeed, I think a 4” call seems pretty good around here.  There’s certainly a snowfall gradient up here in the northern part of the system, so it will be interesting to see where the numbers ultimately end up by the time it winds down.

[J.Spin]

I didn’t see exactly when it started, but it’s been snowing here since some point before 6 PM.  It’s a fairly moderate rate of snowfall made up of a mixture of flake sizes.

[mreaves]

1 hour ago, J.Spin said:

I didn’t see exactly when it started, but it’s been snowing here since some point before 6 PM.  It’s a fairly moderate rate of snowfall made up of a mixture of flake sizes.

I was in Williston with my son, we went in to Best Buy a little after 5:00 and it was snowing when we came out at 5:30. About 1.5” already here at my place. A little more than I expected this soon. 

[J.Spin]

1 hour ago, mreaves said:

I was in Williston with my son, we went in to Best Buy a little after 5:00 and it was snowing when we came out at 5:30. About 1.5” already here at my place. A little more than I expected this soon. 

We were at 1.2” when I checked around 9:00 P.M., so we seem right on track for the 1 to 2” that the BTV NWS has in our point forecast for the evening.

[J.Spin]

Event totals: 1.5” Snow/0.15” L.E.

 

Details from the 10:00 P.M. Waterbury observations:

New Snow: 1.5 inches

New Liquid: 0.15 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 10.0

Snow Density: 10.0% H2O

Temperature: 24.4 F

Sky: Light Snow (2 to 8 mm flakes)

Snow at the stake: 3.0 inches

[J.Spin]

Event totals: 2.5” Snow/0.22” L.E.

 

Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations:

New Snow: 1.0 inches

New Liquid: 0.07 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 14.3

Snow Density: 7.0% H2O

Temperature: 26.4 F

Sky: Flurries

Snow at the stake: 4.0 inches

[mreaves]

3.5” as of 7:00 am. 

[borderwx]

0.0” here

living in the fringe, I can see blue skies just over the border 

[powderfreak]

1 hour ago, borderwx said:

0.0” here

living in the fringe, I can see blue skies just over the border 

1.5" here. 

Looking north can see sky just past your area.

If this view is the consolation prize for missing the big snows, I'll take it.  Love these Northern Greens.  So dramatic looking with the rime.

[klw]

2.9 new as of 6:30 this morning.

[backedgeapproaching]

9.0" as of noon.  Missed the big stuff, but nice and wintry again. Been gusty at times here on the Western slopes.  See if we can somehow squeak out a few more inches  later today tonight to get 12"

Interestingly, had almost exact same total and precip at 7am as the Peru COOP at 1700' up the hill.

8.3" with .76LE here

8.3" with .79LE at Peru COOP

[J.Spin]

1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

If this view is the consolation prize for missing the big snows, I'll take it.  Love these Northern Greens. 

This was just one of those systems where the high pressure must have been pressing down enough to suppress the expanse of the system, because it was a storm track hugging fairly close to the coast, and those can certainly be decent around here.  The storm did deliver a nice freshening of a couple to a few inches to the snowpack at least.

It’s nice to know that you’ve essentially got a whole season of consolation prize to look forward to though – local climate will eventually do its thing in the end.

On that note, have you looked at the general mid-range modeling for Wednesday through Saturday around here? – it looks like lots of nice bread and butter potential.  There’s nothing obvious jumping off the page right now for the BTV NWS crew in their discussion, but you know how these shortwaves and frontal passages can go.  Even at face value it looks pretty nice, and it should be fun to see what the mountains do with it.

[alex]

1 hour ago, J.Spin said:

This was just one of those systems where the high pressure must have been pressing down enough to suppress the expanse of the system, because it was a storm track hugging fairly close to the coast, and those can certainly be decent around here.  The storm did deliver a nice freshening of a couple to a few inches to the snowpack at least.

It’s nice to know that you’ve essentially got a whole season of consolation prize to look forward to though – local climate will eventually do its thing in the end.

On that note, have you looked at the general mid-range modeling for Wednesday through Saturday around here? – it looks like lots of nice bread and butter potential.  There’s nothing obvious jumping off the page right now for the BTV NWS crew in their discussion, but you know how these shortwaves and frontal passages can go.  Even at face value it looks pretty nice, and it should be fun to see what the mountains do with it.

Had the same thought! Also, as far as missing on the storm... I was telling DIane recently how my perception has changed since moving up here. In Mass missing a storm always hurt because the chances are so much more limited to get snow. Up here, we get so much and the season is so long, that it's really easy to let go when one doesn't pan out. I mean, heck, we've had measurable - albeit very light - snow something like 6 out of the last 7 days, and I've been looking at stunningly beautiful trees all week. 

I still do hate cutters though...

[mreaves]

Had 4" on the deck this morning. There was less here at work in Montpelier and a colleague coming in from the Morrisville area said there was reall nothing until she got to just outside Montpelier.  I was sort of surprised.  It wasn't snowing when I went to bed at 11:00, the forecast didn't call for anything and everything indicated that the storm was starting to crank further east.  A little bit of a positive bust for my back yard.

[backedgeapproaching]

1 hour ago, mreaves said:

Had 4" on the deck this morning. There was less here at work in Montpelier and a colleague coming in from the Morrisville area said there was reall nothing until she got to just outside Montpelier.  I was sort of surprised.  It wasn't snowing when I went to bed at 11:00, the forecast didn't call for anything and everything indicated that the storm was starting to crank further east.  A little bit of a positive bust for my back yard.

Some of the meso models last night were backing a band up near your area around 12am or so, always nice to wake up to a surprise.

Total here is 13.6" after some fluff last night in that same banding that was hitting Albany area. Missed out on the jack area to the south, but can't complain for early DEC.

[powderfreak]

5 hours ago, mreaves said:

Had 4" on the deck this morning. There was less here at work in Montpelier and a colleague coming in from the Morrisville area said there was reall nothing until she got to just outside Montpelier.  I was sort of surprised.  It wasn't snowing when I went to bed at 11:00, the forecast didn't call for anything and everything indicated that the storm was starting to crank further east.  A little bit of a positive bust for my back yard.

You had 4” this morning?  lol nice.  Not even a flake up here.

[mreaves]

23 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

You had 4” this morning?  lol nice.  Not even a flake up here.

I was pretty surprised.  Went to bed to a few flurries, woke up around 3:30 and it looked like the car had been coated but nothing surprising and then woke up to plows going by.  Stepped out on the deck that had been cleanly shoveled and poked the tape measure into 4".  My colleague who lives in Elmore said Rt. 12 through Worcester Woods was clear until just outside Montpelier.  Pretty localized I guess.

[alex]

3.3" here today. Skiing was fantastic.

[backedgeapproaching]

Mitch taking an substantial early clubhouse lead season to date, still plenty of holes to be played though

[wxeyeNH]

I have been gone all day at Dartmouth Hitchcock and have not been very up with this storm.  5" storm total for me and looks like just a couple of inches in Lebanon. Just got home and have not read the boards since early this morning but turned on the TV.  Snow amounts,  36" New Ipswich NH and the Monadnock  area.  Wow.