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NNE Cold Season Thread


wxeyeNH
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Some discussion of the upcoming snow from the BTV NWS – I haven’t heard PF mention it yet, but guess there’s some upslope potential:

 

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Burlington VT

648 PM EST Wed Nov 27 2019

 

NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

As of 541 PM EST Wednesday... Expect rain to change to snow across the summit by 06z as 850mb temps drop below 0c and a mix of rain/snow in the valley by 09z Thurs, with some light snow accumulation possible on the eastern side of the CPV by 12z Thurs. Best snow accumulations of 2 to 6 inches will be western Slopes from mansfield to jay peak above 2000 feet late tonight into Thursday, as favorable moisture, upslope flow, and caa will produce accumulating snowfall. Noticed high resolution btv 4km has qpf of 1.0 to 1.25 in the form of snow thru 18z Friday, but issue will be lack of moisture in the favorable snow growth zone after 18z Thursday, which will limit qpf/snowfall.

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2" overnight after a slushy tenth before 9 PM, with 0.25" total precip by then.  Haven't melted the rain/snow bucket but the 2" on the board held 0.58".  Trees nicely frosted for the grandkids from SNJ.  Still some light snow, probably will continue most of he morning, might pick up another tenth or two.  Several reports of thunder in the area, but not here so November remains my only month here without it.  Sw a report from GYX of 8" in Carrabassett Valley.

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Event totals: 0.9” Snow/1.14” L.E.

We were out and about on some holiday travels, but I finally had a chance to run the analyses on the precipitation from Winter Storm Dorothy this evening.  We got quite a shot of liquid before the snow came in, and it seemed to transition with some sloppy snow that’s now refrozen below the much drier snow.  The snowboards had a crusty mess adhered to them below the snow, so that made dividing the frozen precipitation from the liquid precipitation a bit challenging, but at least the rain gauge caught everything for the storm’s liquid equivalent total.

It seems like the accumulating snow was fairly far north with this storm, because coming from the south, we really didn’t see much in the way of new snow until we were getting pretty close to home.

 

Details from the 10:00 P.M. Waterbury observations:

New Snow: 0.9 inches

New Liquid: 0.06 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 15.0

Snow Density: 6.7% H2O

Temperature: 28.2 F

Sky: Flurries/Light Snow (1 to 2 mm flakes)

Snow at the stake: 2.0 inches

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Storm total 2.5" from 0.53" LE (some of the 0.58" noted in previous post was rain-soak) with trees looking quite nice until the wind picked up.  Only 0.02" came from the 0.4" of light snow falling 7-11 AM.  At the first good snow-dislodging gust it sounded like a herd of giant squirrels were pitter-pattering on our roof, as the snow was a bit crusted so the stuff hit the roof in chunks.

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52 minutes ago, alex said:

What a difference a notch makes. Cloudy with flurries at home and full on sunshine on the other side. 

258B036B-58CC-4F7C-9484-15292798F7F3.jpeg

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I see the same thing over the years on Franconia Notch.  Lincoln is sunny and dry, Franconia cloudy with flurries.  The NW upslope makes all the difference.  If you like snow you picked the right place to live.  Would have you been miserable if when you were scouting locations you picked North Conway or Lincoln?

Partly cloudy  28F here  bare ground for the most part

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10 hours ago, tamarack said:

Storm total 2.5" from 0.53" LE (some of the 0.58" noted in previous post was rain-soak) with trees looking quite nice until the wind picked up.  Only 0.02" came from the 0.4" of light snow falling 7-11 AM.  At the first good snow-dislodging gust it sounded like a herd of giant squirrels were pitter-pattering on our roof, as the snow was a bit crusted so the stuff hit the roof in chunks.

I  going to try to put a dent in your lead on this one, This one looks like its going to have a hard time getting well into the foothills as it stands right now.

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11 hours ago, alex said:

What a difference a notch makes. Cloudy with flurries at home and full on sunshine on the other side. 

It was socked in with low ceiling all day here.  It was weird, a freezing mist at times  amid small flakes at the mountain.  Damp chill.  1/4” coating/film of snow at home.

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Although there haven’t been any substantial weather systems in the area over the past couple of days, it’s been pretty active with respect to snowfall.  Yesterday we saw low clouds with very light snow falling continuously throughout the day.  The flakes were tiny, and only accumulated to a tenth of an inch by evening.  The BTV NWS mentioned the low level moisture that was in the area, and the snowfall definitely had the feel of that type of setup.

That low level snow seemed to gradually taper off later in the evening, but I woke up today to find another round of accumulation with more snow falling.  The flakes were dramatically different, with sizes in the 2 to 7 mm range, and the accumulation was a lot less dense, so I assumed the snow came from a different mechanism.  Indeed the BTV NWS indicated that today’s snow is from some sort of weak moisture boundary moving through from north to south over the International Border.

Liquid analyses on the snowfall saw both coming in below 0.01”, and the rest of the observations are below:

 

Event totals: 0.1” Trace L.E.

Details from the 6:00 P.M. Waterbury observations:

New Snow: 0.1 inches

New Liquid: Trace

Temperature: 26.2 F

Sky: Light Snow (1 to 2 mm flakes)

Snow at the stake: 2.0 inches

 

 

Event totals: 0.3” Trace L.E.

Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations:

New Snow: 0.3 inches

New Liquid: Trace

Temperature: 16.3 F

Sky: Light Snow (2 to 7 mm flakes)

Snow at the stake: 2.0 inches

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14 hours ago, dryslot said:

I  going to try to put a dent in your lead on this one, This one looks like its going to have a hard time getting well into the foothills as it stands right now.

Climo asserted itself last year (Farmington averages 90", LEW closer to 70") but previous years with KevinMA's table have seen your snowfall essentially the same as mine - 0.4" difference.  Might be returning to the patterns before 18-19?  :o

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Event totals: 0.4” Trace L.E.

It’s been a snow globe morning here, but generally with some sun and not nearly as potent as some of the cloudier versions of these days.  You can tell by the way we get pulses of flakes at times that they must be blowing in from the mountains.  The flakes glittering in the sun have been quite picturesque overall.

 

Details from the 12:00 P.M. Waterbury observations:

New Snow: 0.1 inches

New Liquid: Trace

Temperature: 23.7 F

Sky: Light Snow (3 to 10 mm flakes)

Snow at the stake: 2.0 inches

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This uncoming storm is driving me nuts.  Sharp cut off line between heavy snow and a nuisance few inches of fluff.  Southern Grafton County NH where I live will be living life on the edge.  It's a no brainer to go with WSW for S NH through Brian but for me WWA or WSW?  Model trend was inching north all night and now back south.  Maine will catchup on Monday night but will it fill in back here?

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