dryslot Posted November 15, 2019 Share Posted November 15, 2019 10 minutes ago, alex said: Yey. Diane needs snow That would make a great screen name. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted November 15, 2019 Share Posted November 15, 2019 Event totals: 0.4” Snow/Trace L.E. Details from the 6:00 P.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.4 inches New Liquid: Trace Temperature: 26.8 F Sky: Flurries Snow at the stake: 4.5 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted November 16, 2019 Share Posted November 16, 2019 Event totals: 0.3” Snow/0.01” L.E. Details from the 6:00 P.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.3 inches New Liquid: 0.01 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 30.0 Snow Density: 3.3% H2O Temperature: 34.2 F Sky: Snow (1 to 3 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 3.5 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
borderwx Posted November 16, 2019 Share Posted November 16, 2019 Popping tree morning here, still air and 2F just before the sun made it over the hill Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted November 16, 2019 Share Posted November 16, 2019 Event totals: 1.1” Snow/0.03” L.E. Yesterday evening brought an additional 0.8” of snow after the 6:00 P.M. clearing of the boards, and skies have mostly cleared out as of this morning, so that marks the end of the event. Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.8 inches New Liquid: 0.02 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 40.0 Snow Density: 2.5% H2O Temperature: 11.1 F Sky: Mostly Clear Snow at the stake: 3.5 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted November 16, 2019 Share Posted November 16, 2019 Since we just finished the first half of the month, I decided to take a look at a few numbers and get a perspective on it relative to last season. Season data as of November 15th: 2018 Number of accumulating storms: 9 Cumulative season snowfall: 14.3” Snow at the stake: 3.0” 2019 Number of accumulating storms: 5 Cumulative season snowfall: 13.9” Snow at the stake: 4.5” The difference in the number of storms between the seasons was actually due to the 4 storms we had in October last year, but overall snowfall and snowpack between the two seasons was really quite similar. I couldn’t include comparison of the winter snowpack start date because we won’t know the status of this season for a while. It’s typically hard to tell if these November valley snowpacks will actually mark the start of the actual winter snowpack, since even average November temperatures can be somewhat hostile to holding snow. But with every passing day and peeks at the forecast ahead, it seems like more and more of a possibility that this season could manage a similar start to what last season did. There’s probably close to an inch of liquid in the pack right now, and it certainly hasn’t taken on that glaciated thaw-freeze structure of a really robust pack, but it will still take some time to melt. If the current snowpack does hold, the start date would be November 8th, which is actually a couple days ahead of last season, but again quite close. What actually sparked my interest in looking at the data was a segment that TWC has been playing this morning with Dr. Postel – they note the snowfall that the northern tier of the U.S. has seen so far this season, and talk about the potential going forward for the next week or two. There is potential for some frozen precipitation from the coastal system that could affect the area over the next few days, and then they mention multiple systems behind that moving along in the relatively fast flow. There’s typically more confidence with these small clipper-style systems vs. large coastal storms, and we’ll have to see how it goes, but the potential for more snow in the next week or two is certainly being discussed at the national level. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted November 16, 2019 Author Share Posted November 16, 2019 Nice GOES picture today. Can really see the snowcover line cutting across New England. Yesterday's warm temperatures melted about 50% of my snowcover. Here in Central NH the snow cover line cuts right through my area. 5 miles south almost nothing while just north the snowcover held on. Interesting storm coming up. Obviously no snow of consequence but sleet/freezing rain for much of at least the west portions of NNE. Euro gives me 1" of total qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted November 16, 2019 Author Share Posted November 16, 2019 18Z GFS backs more qpf into Vermont and western portions of NNE. 18Z on left, 12Z on right. Not sure how accurate these Weatherbell Maps are but I see a .83" of ZR in bullseye places. Enough to cause problems Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 16, 2019 Share Posted November 16, 2019 I like a freezing rain to snow type transition with this one... maybe a quarter inch of glaze followed by 2-3” of snow? Euro maps... it cools it enough to flip to a few hour period of steady snow at the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
borderwx Posted November 17, 2019 Share Posted November 17, 2019 First sub zero morning, -3 before sunrise. could hear a squirrel fart from fifty yards 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted November 17, 2019 Share Posted November 17, 2019 Stayed a couple degrees above zero here - wind was light but still moving at 10 last night, so less time after the inversion sets up. Walking in the woods yesterday was explosively noisy as the Friday "thaw" followed by an 8F low produced a solid crust, and the leaves were nice and crunchy underneath. Every deer within a half mile could probably hear me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted November 17, 2019 Share Posted November 17, 2019 Kinda bummed about this upcoming storm...rain...reallly??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted November 17, 2019 Author Share Posted November 17, 2019 19 minutes ago, #NoPoles said: Kinda bummed about this upcoming storm...rain...reallly??? I think you will be fine. .50" of precip, if that. It all falls with temps in the 30's so not much melting. Some freezing rain, some sleet then Tuesday it turns back to a couple of inches of snow. I think the net result will be neutral. I certainly don't see any bare ground up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 17, 2019 Share Posted November 17, 2019 Island Pond, VT at the ISPV1 station had a low of -11F and a high of 39F.... nice 50-degree diurnal swing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alex Posted November 17, 2019 Share Posted November 17, 2019 3 hours ago, wxeyeNH said: I think you will be fine. .50" of precip, if that. It all falls with temps in the 30's so not much melting. Some freezing rain, some sleet then Tuesday it turns back to a couple of inches of snow. I think the net result will be neutral. I certainly don't see any bare ground up there. This is not exactly a toasty forecast for mid-November even for up here: Tonight Partly cloudy, with a low around 16. Southeast wind around 5 mph. Monday Freezing rain likely, mainly after 4pm. Cloudy, with a high near 32. East wind around 5 mph becoming northeast in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Little or no ice accumulation expected. Monday Night Snow, freezing rain, and sleet before midnight, then snow between midnight and 1am, then sleet after 1am. Low around 27. North wind around 5 mph becoming west after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Little or no ice accumulation expected. New snow and sleet accumulation of around an inch possible. Tuesday Snow likely before 1pm. Cloudy, with a high near 30. Northwest wind around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible. Tuesday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 21. Northwest wind around 5 mph. Wednesday Mostly cloudy, with a high near 30. Wednesday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 22. Thursday Partly sunny, with a high near 33. Thursday Night Snow likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 24. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Friday Rain and snow likely, becoming all snow after 1pm. Cloudy, with a high near 35. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Friday Night A 50 percent chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 21. Saturday A 30 percent chance of snow showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 28. Saturday Night A 30 percent chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 20. Sunday A 30 percent chance of snow showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 33. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted November 17, 2019 Author Share Posted November 17, 2019 1 hour ago, alex said: This is not exactly a toasty forecast for mid-November even for up here: Tonight Partly cloudy, with a low around 16. Southeast wind around 5 mph. Monday Freezing rain likely, mainly after 4pm. Cloudy, with a high near 32. East wind around 5 mph becoming northeast in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Little or no ice accumulation expected. Monday Night Snow, freezing rain, and sleet before midnight, then snow between midnight and 1am, then sleet after 1am. Low around 27. North wind around 5 mph becoming west after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Little or no ice accumulation expected. New snow and sleet accumulation of around an inch possible. Tuesday Snow likely before 1pm. Cloudy, with a high near 30. Northwest wind around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible. Tuesday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 21. Northwest wind around 5 mph. Wednesday Mostly cloudy, with a high near 30. Wednesday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 22. Thursday Partly sunny, with a high near 33. Thursday Night Snow likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 24. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Friday Rain and snow likely, becoming all snow after 1pm. Cloudy, with a high near 35. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Friday Night A 50 percent chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 21. Saturday A 30 percent chance of snow showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 28. Saturday Night A 30 percent chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 20. Sunday A 30 percent chance of snow showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 33. Yeah, its so hard to have sustained bare ground up there after mid to late November. You get thaws and cutters but then on the back side get the upslope that refreshes the pack. I don't think you keep stats on snowcover since you moved up from Boston but I just can't remember seeing mostly bare ground on your cam for more than a few days at a time in winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alex Posted November 18, 2019 Share Posted November 18, 2019 1 hour ago, wxeyeNH said: Yeah, its so hard to have sustained bare ground up there after mid to late November. You get thaws and cutters but then on the back side get the upslope that refreshes the pack. I don't think you keep stats on snowcover since you moved up from Boston but I just can't remember seeing mostly bare ground on your cam for more than a few days at a time in winter. It doesn't happen often, you are right - although I've certainly seen bare ground this early in the year. The area in front of the camera is also one that clears up the fastest - snow doesn't accumulate much due to wind, and it's in full sun. Although it's not as bad as the golf course, which has bare spots most of the winter lol. It must be the most wind scoured spot in the northern Whites! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted November 18, 2019 Share Posted November 18, 2019 On 11/16/2019 at 8:48 PM, powderfreak said: Went for a hike today to get some fresh tracks. Beautiful bluebird day to be wandering around on skis. Nice PF, I was actually out with my younger son for a ski tour on Saturday at BV, and I’ve been meaning to pass along a conditions update. What we found was really a quantum leap in snow quality compared to the previous weekend. Snow depths around 2,000’ at the Village were typically 5-7” over a substantial base, and where we topped out on our tour around 2,700’-2,800’ depths were roughly 12”. People had even been skiing down at Timberline at 1,500’ – it seemed a bit leaner on snow than at 2,000’ of course, but definitely workable. Last week’s three events with the big, dense snow L.E. one first followed by the two smaller events really set up a gradient in the pack for some nice turns. I’ve added a couple of shots from the tour below: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted November 18, 2019 Share Posted November 18, 2019 On 11/16/2019 at 2:47 PM, wxeyeNH said: Nice GOES picture today. Can really see the snowcover line cutting across New England. Yesterday's warm temperatures melted about 50% of my snowcover. Here in Central NH the snow cover line cuts right through my area. 5 miles south almost nothing while just north the snowcover held on. Interesting storm coming up. Obviously no snow of consequence but sleet/freezing rain for much of at least the west portions of NNE. Euro gives me 1" of total qpf. Love this image. Among other things, it really shows well the Jersey pine barrens. Cloudy with a raw wind in Augusta while at 10 AM PWM was reporting light rain and 31 - lovely. Yesterday's 29/0 made it 2 zero-or-below mornings earlier than getting even one in any of my other 46 Novembers in Maine. And while I have no doubts about Island Pond's low of -11, that 39° max seems a bit high. I had full sun all day yesterday, and should not have been 10° cooler. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 18, 2019 Share Posted November 18, 2019 Utterly obscene. It’s hard to match these departures over a 17-day period. I mean MPV/MVL are both almost -10 on the month. For here... 5 of the last 6 days had departures of -19F or lower, as much as -26F a day. BTV... -7.9 1V4... -8.9 MVL... -9.3 MPV... -9.4 This is holy shit level of cold departures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted November 18, 2019 Share Posted November 18, 2019 29 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Utterly obscene. It’s hard to match these departures over a 17-day period. I mean MPV/MVL are both almost -10 on the month. For here... 5 of the last 6 days had departures of -19F or lower, as much as -26F a day. BTV... -7.9 1V4... -8.9 MVL... -9.3 MPV... -9.4 This is holy shit level of cold departures. My greatest fear is the December 1989/January 1990 duet. -17.3 in December 1989 at BTV to +11.8 in January 1990. The high temp for the month of December was 41 on the 12/31. I am always in fear of the rubber band snap back. https://www.weather.gov/media/btv/events/Dec1989.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
backedgeapproaching Posted November 19, 2019 Share Posted November 19, 2019 Some Sierra cement falling now, 32F with some massive gloppy flakes. Overnight was 32-33f rain/ZR for the most part, just flipped about 10 minutes ago. Should be moving out quickly, maybe a quick inch I think at best Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted November 19, 2019 Share Posted November 19, 2019 Event totals: 0.1” Snow/0.11” L.E. The precipitation at the house this morning was a combination of freezing rain and sleet. I cored the frozen material on the board, which would ideally include just the sleet, but there wasn’t really a way to separate it from the frozen rain. Lately, the precipitation has been trending more toward sleet, but I’m not sure if that’s just temporary. We are anticipated to change over to snow later in the storm. Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.1 inches (sleet) New Liquid: 0.08 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 1.3 Snow Density: 80.0% H2O Temperature: 31.1 F Sky: Sleet/Freezing Rain Snow at the stake: 3.0 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted November 19, 2019 Share Posted November 19, 2019 20 hours ago, mreaves said: My greatest fear is the December 1989/January 1990 duet. -17.3 in December 1989 at BTV to +11.8 in January 1990. The high temp for the month of December was 41 on the 12/31. I am always in fear of the rubber band snap back. https://www.weather.gov/media/btv/events/Dec1989.pdf The cold surely relaxed after that amazing 40 days (from 11/22 thru 12/31 [7 AM obs times] averaged -15.0 at Farmington), but at my (then) home in Gardiner the warm-up still allowed for 51.5" of Jan-Feb snow (30% above avg) and a 5" surprise at the end of March. At least it wasn't like the current event, RA at 33 with trace ZR at home and perhaps 0.15" accretion at 800' five miles to my south on Mile Hill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted November 19, 2019 Share Posted November 19, 2019 The precipitation has been mostly sleet as of late here in BTV, but more and more flakes seem to be mixing in now. I’m not sure if this will mark the official changeover, but precipitation is supposed to transition to snow at some point as this system continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alex Posted November 19, 2019 Share Posted November 19, 2019 After some freezing drizzle overnight, measured 0.8" here in the heavier bursts then came down earlier, now just some sloppy flurries. Overall, a whole bunch of nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted November 19, 2019 Share Posted November 19, 2019 As of about noon the precipitation is fully over to snow here in BTV – flakes are large, up to about 2 inches in diameter. I can also see that it’s also changed over to snow at our place in Waterbury via our webcam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
backedgeapproaching Posted November 19, 2019 Share Posted November 19, 2019 2.0" here on .25" LE Some massive aggregates at times, only added up to the 2" though. Ground was totally bare before this morning..only some patches in woods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted November 19, 2019 Share Posted November 19, 2019 Currently pouring at Bretton Woods... What a weird storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted November 19, 2019 Author Share Posted November 19, 2019 2 hours ago, alex said: After some freezing drizzle overnight, measured 0.8" here in the heavier bursts then came down earlier, now just some sloppy flurries. Overall, a whole bunch of nothing. 35.6F cloudy vis up to 10 miles. Storm total .42" Just a cloudy day yesterday although we were under a WWA the whole day. Light rain and 33-34F overnight. Rain turned to snow mid morning. Got a quick slight coating with some giant parachutes, temp at 33.5 to 34F as they fell and melted within a half hour. To keep up with you and J Spin I could add .1" or .2" to my seasonal total but it was gone in an eyeblink I'll just record it as a T day. Tomorrow looks like perhaps .10" or .15" of qpf with temps in the low 30's. Maybe another coating. Old snow from last week is mostly gone except some in the woods here and there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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