NNE Cold Season Thread

[GCWarrior]

This winter reminds me of a slightly better version of 2012.   The overall setup is a lot different but the results may end up being the same.  Even up in NNE outside of northern Maine the comparisons are there.  I think the Mansfield snow stake comparison is pretty spot on.  Similar spike from several big events in February. I don’t hold out much hope for down here but I’d like to see the mountains avoid a steep decline.  
 

 

 

[J.Spin]

18 minutes ago, GCWarrior said:

This winter reminds me of a slightly better version of 2012.   The overall setup is a lot different but the results may end up being the same.  Even up in NNE outside of northern Maine the comparisons are there.  I think the Mansfield snow stake comparison is pretty spot on.  Similar spike from several big events in February. I don’t hold out much hope for down here but I’d like to see the mountains avoid a steep decline.  

That’s interesting, this certainly hasn’t felt like 2011-2012 at our site.  That season ended with less snowfall than we’ve had already this season, and we’ve still got weeks of potential snowfall to go.  Unlike this season, that season was constantly behind the eight ball in terms of snowfall and was never really able to catch up to average.  And, it literally seemed to stop dead in its tracks in March:

The 2011-2012 season sort of sets the benchmark for what I would consider a typical “poor season” here, being just a bit over 1 S.D. (1.09 S.D.) below the mean, and this season just hasn’t felt like that.  I know the SNE crew have mostly “checked out” on the season because of what the normal climatology is like down there at this time of year, but as I mentioned in my other post, a typical season up here has a lot of snowfall yet to go at this point – almost 40 inches even down here in the valley, and substantially more in the mountains.

[ChasingFlakes]

There was a huge difference in snow cover just going from 2,000ft near jay, to 600 feet in montgomery center (as always)  Then going the 30 miles south to Stowe and Waterbury at a similar elevation the pack was gone on south facing slopes and close to 6-8 inches elsewhere outside the woods. Montgomery Center still had about a foot in most spots and the elevation around Jay has about 40 inches still. 

I was bummed to end my trip early, I planned to do tuckermans ravine on Friday; however, on Thursday I hit a small branch that was across the trail and took a weird fall on the mellow section at the bottom of the mountain, straining my back.  Ill be fine in a week or two, but I was bummed not to be able to hitup the Whites and then mount snow (for free) on my way back home.  That was my first time ever injuring myself on a snowboard and I've been doing it for almost 20 years.  I'm just glad it wasn't anything serious and I laugh because I was going like 5 mph and just riding lazily and fell into a scorpion position. 

Definitely left VT with my tail between my legs but at least I had a great day Monday and did some good exploration at new ski areas (Burke) and backountry zones.  Every trip cant be an amazing powder trip, but even this one I got a taste of it for a few hours monday morning before the thaw.  I'm sure you guys will get another good storm this month, March always delivers up your way.  There were two 2 ft storms I was there for last March and I'd be suprised if there wasnt another event like that this year.  

Also I remember going to Smuggs December of 2011 and it being pretty bare even on the trails. From that mansfield chart it looks like they had only recieved about 20" up to the date I went just before Christmas.  

[powderfreak]

15 hours ago, GCWarrior said:

This winter reminds me of a slightly better version of 2012.   The overall setup is a lot different but the results may end up being the same.  Even up in NNE outside of northern Maine the comparisons are there.  I think the Mansfield snow stake comparison is pretty spot on.  Similar spike from several big events in February. I don’t hold out much hope for down here but I’d like to see the mountains avoid a steep decline.  
 

 

 

Agreed on the mountain.  Snowfall has been sub-par on the whole, even with a rouge high-end event.

[GCWarrior]

7 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Agreed on the mountain.  Snowfall has been sub-par on the whole, even with a rouge high-end event.

This upcoming stretch doesn’t look to add any snow to the pack.  Not an all out torch like mid March 2012 but a slow melt at least over the next week.  

[NorEastermass128]

2 hours ago, GCWarrior said:

This upcoming stretch doesn’t look to add any snow to the pack.  Not an all out torch like mid March 2012 but a slow melt at least over the next week.  

Beware the ides. PF isn’t done at all. 

[GCWarrior]

Well yes.  April can also get blocky,  rain in sne and dumping snow in the mountains.

[J.Spin]

On 3/7/2020 at 11:20 PM, powderfreak said:

Agreed on the mountain.  Snowfall has been sub-par on the whole, even with a rouge high-end event.

Thanks for the update PF.  In terms of snowfall, the local mountains have seemed to be a bit behind where we are in the valleys for whatever reason.

 

At my site, season snowfall is 121.5”, which is 6.5” behind average pace, or 94.9% of average.

At BTV, season snowfall is 63.7”, which is 2.1” behind average pace, or 96.8% of average.

 

For season snowfall numbers thus far for the resorts on the spine of the Northern Greens I’m seeing:

Jay Peak: 264”

Smuggler’s Notch: 224”

Stowe: 214”

Bolton Valley: 192”

 

I don’t have daily snowfall numbers for the resorts, but those numbers clearly seem to be behind the pace of the valley numbers, most notably as one heads farther south.  The usual proportion of simply doubling my snowfall numbers would suggest the local mountains should be around 240-250” right now, but Stowe and Bolton Valley are definitely behind that pace.  Aside from Jay Peak, it would take a really strong rest of March and April to get to that typical 300”+ range, so they’ve got to be behind that valley snowfall pace.

Typically, if temperatures are on the warm side, one would expect the mountains to make out better than the valleys relative to average, but I’m not quite sure what sort of setup favors the reverse.  Perhaps it’s a lack of big storms with substantial backside snows, or maybe a bit of a decrease in the number of bread and butter events?  Do you have any thoughts on the disparity based on your observations from the mountain?

[Angus]

What was striking yesterday, driving south on 89 from the border was the little snow even in the hills around the Bolton/Waterbury exits. My attention will now turn to ice out on our lake in NH!

[J.Spin]

4 hours ago, Angus said:

What was striking yesterday, driving south on 89 from the border was the little snow even in the hills around the Bolton/Waterbury exits. My attention will now turn to ice out on our lake in NH!

I can’t quite say how snowpack in the local hills compares to normal, but down in the valley bottom in our area, snowpack is definitely below average right now.  At our stake the depth is 8 inches, which is roughly half the average for this date.  Of course snowpack in the valleys can be highly variable this time of year, but in contrast to the snowfall that’s been fairly close to average at our site, snowpack has been more notably below average this season.  Snow-depth days for the season thus far are 76.5% of average.

In the highest elevations, snowpack seems to be closer to normal despite what appears to be below average snowfall.  The snowpack at the Mt. Mansfield Stake is still an inch above average even after all the recent consolidation:

[tamarack]

5 hours ago, J.Spin said:

Thanks for the update PF.  In terms of snowfall, the local mountains have seemed to be a bit behind where we are in the valleys for whatever reason.

 

At my site, season snowfall is 121.5”, which is 6.5” behind average pace, or 94.9% of average.

At BTV, season snowfall is 63.7”, which is 2.1” behind average pace, or 96.8% of average.

 

My 57.8" to date is 16.1" BN, 78% of average, and unless the late week storm turns colder, we'll be close to 2' BN before expecting any more.

[wxeyeNH]

66.1F for my high.  My pastures are mostly snow free but in the general area snowcover is still over 50%.

[borderwx]

I was impressed with 60 here and running the pup in a T shirt. Might be even more impressed with 53 and rain at 10pm in the first half of March. 
 

Could hear the trees running up here 

[J.Spin]

17 hours ago, tamarack said:

My 57.8" to date is 16.1" BN, 78% of average, and unless the late week storm turns colder, we'll be close to 2' BN before expecting any more.

As I recall, you’re a touch north of me and PF with respect to latitude, but it still sounds like snowfall is a little more behind average pace over there.

 

From what I’ve seen, the next chances for snow still appear to be the chance for a touch on the back side of this current system, and then that late week one you mentioned.  The one later this week definitely has some potential for snow in the elevations at the moment per the BTV NWS forecast discussion:

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Burlington VT

726 AM EDT Tue Mar 10 2020

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

While main surface low tracks well north of the region, models indicate the potential for a secondary low to form along the main frontal boundary. Overall, this system looks not too shabby with nose of ~160kt 300mb jet tracking across western NY into New England, upper trough becomes negatively tilted and a fairly strong thermal boundary is apparent at 700mb. The best dynamics 9previously mentioned) arrive toward 18z Friday with a period of heavy rain/(mountain) snow likely ahead of main frontal boundary. 24-hr QPF ending 00z Saturday among main global guidance (GFS, EMCWF, CMC) show between 0.40-0.80" of precipitation falling.

The trend on that secondary low development will probably be the thing to watch.  If the QPF numbers mentioned above were to come in as mostly snow at elevation, that would hold some potential for some decent turns.  It really comes down to how much liquid equivalent falls as snow though – with the base having gone through a thorough thaw/freeze at all elevations at this point, it either has to be warm enough to soften, or there has to be enough liquid equivalent for a semi-decent resurfacing.  Everything in between isn’t really worth it aside from race training or going out to ski some firm groomers.

[tamarack]

Another sign of coming spring - yesterday there were about 50 geese on Belgrade Stream at the Rt 27 bridge.  Since those birds invest several hundred miles of effort on the chance that their destination will be ready for them, they can't afford to be wrong.  I think their arrival is about a week earlier than usual.

Edit:  Checked back and found that last year's goose-arrival notice came on 3/20, the later date unsurprising as DJF were all about 2° BN and March was running about -6 thru that date.  This season Dec was about average, Jan +5, Feb +1.4 and March to date +6.5.

[MarkO]

Cabin back yard faces due north and slopes down, so great snow retention. I'd guess it's between 8-10" deep and probably 3-4" of water content.

[powderfreak]

On 3/9/2020 at 9:55 AM, J.Spin said:

Thanks for the update PF.  In terms of snowfall, the local mountains have seemed to be a bit behind where we are in the valleys for whatever reason.

At my site, season snowfall is 121.5”, which is 6.5” behind average pace, or 94.9% of average.

At BTV, season snowfall is 63.7”, which is 2.1” behind average pace, or 96.8% of average.

For season snowfall numbers thus far for the resorts on the spine of the Northern Greens I’m seeing:

Jay Peak: 264”

Smuggler’s Notch: 224”

Stowe: 214”

Bolton Valley: 192”

I don’t have daily snowfall numbers for the resorts, but those numbers clearly seem to be behind the pace of the valley numbers, most notably as one heads farther south.  The usual proportion of simply doubling my snowfall numbers would suggest the local mountains should be around 240-250” right now, but Stowe and Bolton Valley are definitely behind that pace.  Aside from Jay Peak, it would take a really strong rest of March and April to get to that typical 300”+ range, so they’ve got to be behind that valley snowfall pace.

Typically, if temperatures are on the warm side, one would expect the mountains to make out better than the valleys relative to average, but I’m not quite sure what sort of setup favors the reverse.  Perhaps it’s a lack of big storms with substantial backside snows, or maybe a bit of a decrease in the number of bread and butter events?  Do you have any thoughts on the disparity based on your observations from the mountain?

J- I agree, it's been a weird winter in that regard.  The lower elevations seem to be doing better relative to normal than the higher elevations.  We've only had that 214" at 3,000ft High Road area, compared with say 2016-17 when we measured 375" by closing day at that location.  I think when I really look into the various winter's on the mountain, it all revolves around the "bread and butter" events.  The 2-4"/3-6" per day type stuff.  And not just for a week, but like months of that stuff every couple days.  In that 375" winter, we did like 100" in 3 weeks without any huge events that January into early February.  It just snowed 1" or more like 21 out of 24 days.  Those to me, are how we get our averages in the mountain sites while down in the valleys we rely on more synoptic events and supplement with upslope nickles. 

Your location is different and more tied to the mountain orographics, but this season I feel like we have certainly been missing a large amount of "refresher" events for the ski area.  The two week long periods of flakes, or the 5-day cycles of moist NW flow.  Not huge events but just days where it's like 2", 4", 1", 6", 3", etc.  We really need that stuff as I've always thought of the average snow up here as 2" per day.  Anything below that (14" per week or lower) is below average.  The Mansfield COOP reported less snow but still had an average daily snowfall of like 1.5-2.0" per day for the heart of winter. 

This year has had a ton of 7-day totals in the 5-10" range.... weeks of it.  Even some weeks below 5". 

We lucked out in the valleys with synoptic events but I think the prevailing pattern of primary upper level lows going northwest of us is a poor pattern for the northern Greens because you don't get that cyclonic backside flow.  We can work with cold air damming or synoptic snow to mix then dry slot type storms, but most of those events don't have much difference from valleys to peaks because it's mid-level warm air lift.  But without those higher variance NW flow events on the backside where the mountains gets 6-8" more while town sees 1-2", I think we haven't had that huge snowfall variance we usually see.  A lot of it has to do with the orographic snows, IMO, and the prevailing pattern this winter of upper level lows staying back west.

[J.Spin]

On 3/11/2020 at 7:17 PM, powderfreak said:

J- I agree, it's been a weird winter in that regard.  The lower elevations seem to be doing better relative to normal than the higher elevations.  We've only had that 214" at 3,000ft High Road area, compared with say 2016-17 when we measured 375" by closing day at that location.  I think when I really look into the various winter's on the mountain, it all revolves around the "bread and butter" events.  The 2-4"/3-6" per day type stuff.  And not just for a week, but like months of that stuff every couple days.  In that 375" winter, we did like 100" in 3 weeks without any huge events that January into early February.  It just snowed 1" or more like 21 out of 24 days.  Those to me, are how we get our averages in the mountain sites while down in the valleys we rely on more synoptic events and supplement with upslope nickles. 

Your location is different and more tied to the mountain orographics, but this season I feel like we have certainly been missing a large amount of "refresher" events for the ski area.  The two week long periods of flakes, or the 5-day cycles of moist NW flow.  Not huge events but just days where it's like 2", 4", 1", 6", 3", etc.  We really need that stuff as I've always thought of the average snow up here as 2" per day.  Anything below that (14" per week or lower) is below average.  The Mansfield COOP reported less snow but still had an average daily snowfall of like 1.5-2.0" per day for the heart of winter. 

This year has had a ton of 7-day totals in the 5-10" range.... weeks of it.  Even some weeks below 5". 

We lucked out in the valleys with synoptic events but I think the prevailing pattern of primary upper level lows going northwest of us is a poor pattern for the northern Greens because you don't get that cyclonic backside flow.  We can work with cold air damming or synoptic snow to mix then dry slot type storms, but most of those events don't have much difference from valleys to peaks because it's mid-level warm air lift.  But without those higher variance NW flow events on the backside where the mountains gets 6-8" more while town sees 1-2", I think we haven't had that huge snowfall variance we usually see.  A lot of it has to do with the orographic snows, IMO, and the prevailing pattern this winter of upper level lows staying back west.

Thanks for the great thoughts PF; it indeed sounds decent luck in the valleys with synoptic storms, and a dearth of bread and butter events/cyclonic backside flow is a combination that could explain the interesting valley/mountain snowfall distribution we’ve seen.

[#NoPoles]

Rain and wind, was a sleet and wind storm for a while

[wxeyeNH]

Had some sleet very early morning the whitened up the grass for awhile.   I'll call it 1/4"   64.25" for the season which is probably around 10-15" below my yearly average.  It's interesting to note my last measurable snowfall was back on Feb 18th

My south facing property is almost snow free but woods and north facing slopes are still snowcovered.   Also as a side bar in watching the news today and live shots of the White House, the cherry trees seem to be in bloom and the grass green.  Everything is running ahead of schedule

[STILL N OF PIKE]

did anyone get snowfall in this last system that just ended....was there an elevation component or were mid levels torched to Montreal

[tamarack]

50 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

did anyone get snowfall in this last system that just ended....was there an elevation component or were mid levels torched to Montreal

Had a coating this morning and it was snowing lightly when I left home.  Cocorahs observer about 10 miles to my west and 800' higher reported 1.4" at 6 AM.  Still snowing at FVE at 4 PM.

[alex]

5 hours ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

did anyone get snowfall in this last system that just ended....was there an elevation component or were mid levels torched to Montreal

We had 1.4" of snow/sleet followed by rain

[tamarack]

Madawaska cocorahs reported 7.6" thru 7 this morning and 44" OG.  Somebody's having winter...

[eyewall]

Happy 3rd anniversary of the great Pi Day storm

 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

The winter snow seems to have died down quickly for CNE last several weeks and maybe NNE in March .

was really hoping for a few more large storms for NNE, odds are they score at least one 

[J.Spin]

Event totals: 1.4” Snow/0.08” L.E.

 

Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations:

New Snow: 1.4 inches

New Liquid: 0.08 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 17.5

Snow Density: 5.7% H2O

Temperature: 30.7 F

Sky:  Light Snow (2 to 8 mm flakes)

Snow at the stake: 3.0 inches

[wxeyeNH]

28.8F  at mid day.   1"  new    65.25" on the season

[J.Spin]

Event totals: 1.6” Snow/0.10” L.E.

 

Details from the 4:00 P.M. Waterbury observations:

New Snow: 0.2 inches

New Liquid: 0.02 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 10.0

Snow Density: 10.0% H2O

Temperature: 42.6 F

Sky:  Sprinkles/Mist

Snow at the stake: 2.5 inches

[powderfreak]

Ended up with 1.5” in Stowe Village.