NNE Cold Season Thread

[alex]

Lol and now it's flurrying 

[#NoPoles]

31 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

This was quite the thaw.  Pretty high end but not quite to levels like in Jan 2008 and or Jan 96.  I think the summits saw the worst of it.  The valleys drained low level cold in last night near freezing...but up at 3000ft+ it was 45-50F all last night with 1-1.5” rainfall across the Spine here.  

The Mansfield Stake is down to 18” of pack.  It has the slickness of pond ice and the durability of a concrete foundation.  

Last year we hit 100” of depth in January for comparison.

I was in my freshman year at Lyndon State in January 96. Honest to god do not remember an epic thaw. I must be old...sigh...

[MarkO]

Was Jan '96 the ice storm? 

Yeah, Waterville took a nasty hit. About 50% soft snow/ice on the surface. Banged out 3 runs, called it a day. Definitely higher elevations took it worse. It was probably in the low 50's above 3k', around 42 at 2k'. My backyard down to 2" of wet snow, from 9" Friday. Depressing, but they should partially recover by weekend. 

Scott, how does Stowe plan out the week? Do they focus on a few runs one at a time, or spread out the guns?

[Baroclinic Zone]

52 minutes ago, #NoPoles said:

I was in my freshman year at Lyndon State in January 96. Honest to god do not remember an epic thaw. I must be old...sigh...

I’m as bad as you.  I have only a few recollections of either epic snowstorms or epic torches.  There was one torch I do recall golfing at Maplegate in Bellingham in February I want recall.  Was in the 60s. 

[backedgeapproaching]

You really have to look with binoculars to even find piles in around town in Manchester. Wiped totally clean, although there wasn't much to wipe out..few inches.

Time to reboot.

[wxeyeNH]

It's Sunday evening and I'm safely back under freezing.  Yeah, that was quite the thaw.  Snow is around my parts of Central NH is still mostly intact in the woods and below about 800 feet.  The hills really took the brunt as they stayed in the warm air all day yesterday, through the night and all day today.  Down below it was cooler all and all and there was less wind.  

In a way Im happy we got wiped clean. It's only very temporary with winter storms looming for later this week.  The warmth cleared the ice dams on the north side of the house and the deer are out happily munching in the fields and finding old apples and acorns.  Its a good chance for them to get a couple days worth of nutrients before we recoat the landscape.  

Newfound Lake is only 1/2 ice covered and no one has put Bob houses on the ice yet.  Pretty unusual for mid January.

The people with snowmobiles must be very unhappy.  Very little sledding this year.  The ski resorts can start making snow again now.  Several winter storms on the horizon so part 2 of winter resumes now.

[J.Spin]

2 hours ago, powderfreak said:

The Mansfield Stake is down to 18” of pack.  It has the slickness of pond ice and the durability of a concrete foundation.  

With that solid foundation, I think the local slopes have a shot of being in great shape for the upcoming holiday weekend because we’re getting back into our more typical bread and butter pattern.  We’ve actually got four potential systems coming through the Northern Greens in the next six days:  there’s one tomorrow into Tuesday, another on Wednesday, one on Thursday, and finally a potentially larger one coming into the area on Saturday.  Any one of those alone wouldn’t necessarily get things up to snuff, but collectively they could be quite good.  We’ll just have to see, but we were at Stowe this afternoon and there’s a lot of great base out there that just needs some quality snow on top of it.

[J.Spin]

It doesn’t look like we picked up an accumulating frozen precipitation here at the house this afternoon, so the final totals at our site for Winter Storm Isaiah were 0.2” snow/1.06” L.E.  When we were at Stowe this afternoon, they did pick up some frozen on the back side of the system – it wasn’t a ton of depth, but it became quite solid as the temperatures dropped and it took a while to warm up the car and melt it off when we were heading home.

[powderfreak]

8 hours ago, J.Spin said:

It doesn’t look like we picked up an accumulating frozen precipitation here at the house this afternoon, so the final totals at our site for Winter Storm Isaiah were 0.2” snow/1.06” L.E.  When we were at Stowe this afternoon, they did pick up some frozen on the back side of the system – it wasn’t a ton of depth, but it became quite solid as the temperatures dropped and it took a while to warm up the car and melt it off when we were heading home.

Yeah got around 0.9” on the high snow board.  At least whitened things up a bit.  

[tamarack]

11 hours ago, #NoPoles said:

I was in my freshman year at Lyndon State in January 96. Honest to god do not remember an epic thaw. I must be old...sigh...

After a snowy December and several early January snowstorms (though little from the huge MA blizzard), NNE had 3 warm rain events dump a total of about 4" in 10 days.  Farmington co-op had a 40" pack drop to 8", truly freakish for what's normally the coldest stretch of winter.   Some ice jam flooding along the Sandy River too.

[qg_omega]

[Ginx snewx]

20 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Wow

[J.Spin]

12 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Last year we hit 100” of depth in January for comparison.

I hadn’t remembered that, but recalled last season’s lackluster December, so when I went and checked my records to see how last January was around here.  We had 66.5” of snow at the house, which is certainly a solid January for the valley.  With the typical doubling of snowfall I see for Mansfield with respect to our site, that would likely have been over 100” of accumulation for the month at your upper plot.

[mreaves]

BTV mets are snow weenies.  From this morning's discussion

"vertically stacked near the Gulf of Maine. Among
the deterministic guidance, quite a spread in snowfall amounts
exists therefore it`s still to early to talk totals...however,
seeing as it IS January in New England, it feels good to have a
potential snowstorm to talk about in the forecast (rejoice!)."

[alex]

It was interesting driving around today. First time I've ever seen Littleton have more snow than Bretton Woods! Looks like they stayed pretty cold down there, with a solid 3-4 cover everywhere and even snow on roofs! Goes away quickly as you rise in elevation in neighboring Bethlehem, where it's just patches (as all elevated areas). Microclimates are so fascinating. 

[Lava Rock]

1 hour ago, alex said:

It was interesting driving around today. First time I've ever seen Littleton have more snow than Bretton Woods! Looks like they stayed pretty cold down there, with a solid 3-4 cover everywhere and even snow on roofs! Goes away quickly as you rise in elevation in neighboring Bethlehem, where it's just patches (as all elevated areas). Microclimates are so fascinating. 

Hillside living sucks for snow retention, although I am surprised we didn't get wiped clean. Woods are still mostly intact with 3-4". Break out the box of tissues for the snow stake. 18"????

[J.Spin]

I was just outside and noticed that we’ve got a bit of light snow falling here in Burlington.

[powderfreak]

4 hours ago, J.Spin said:

I hadn’t remembered that, but recalled last season’s lackluster December, so when I went and checked my records to see how last January was around here.  We had 66.5” of snow at the house, which is certainly a solid January for the valley.  With the typical doubling of snowfall I see for Mansfield with respect to our site, that would likely have been over 100” of accumulation for the month at your upper plot.

We had some snow reporting issues last winter that got fixed the 2nd week of January... I've got 96" for monthly snowfall last January.  Smuggs had 127".  My gut said we under-reported (ie missed) some inches in the first week of January but got it sorted out and Andre and I were on the run again.

That was a big month.  Good old Northern Greens style.  Hard to run a January better than 100" of snowfall along with 100" snow depth to enjoy it on.  We had like 50" on the ground in the base area later in January there, ha.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

I'll be up in the Montpelier area Friday-Monday visiting a friend.  It seems like there will definitely be snow on the ground as it seems a few shortwaves will be moving through.  Looking at the 10:1 clown maps I see a huge difference vs. the Kuchera maps.  Just wondering if those kuchera maps ever pan out up there.  I'm really hope to do some cross country skiing and sledding with my kids. 

[powderfreak]

1 hour ago, DCTeacherman said:

I'll be up in the Montpelier area Friday-Monday visiting a friend.  It seems like there will definitely be snow on the ground as it seems a few shortwaves will be moving through.  Looking at the 10:1 clown maps I see a huge difference vs. the Kuchera maps.  Just wondering if those kuchera maps ever pan out up there.  I'm really hope to do some cross country skiing and sledding with my kids. 

Usually not unless its a meso-scale upslope snow where the ratios are often higher anyway.  Most synoptic snow though has those Kuchie maps wayyyyy too high.

[mreaves]

3 hours ago, DCTeacherman said:

I'll be up in the Montpelier area Friday-Monday visiting a friend.  It seems like there will definitely be snow on the ground as it seems a few shortwaves will be moving through.  Looking at the 10:1 clown maps I see a huge difference vs. the Kuchera maps.  Just wondering if those kuchera maps ever pan out up there.  I'm really hope to do some cross country skiing and sledding with my kids. 

Welcome, for the weekend at least. I work in downtown Montpelier. Hopefully we get a little snow so you can do some outdoor activities. As PF said, tho use Kuchera maps are generally just for entertainment purposes only. 

[J.Spin]

Event totals: 0.1” Snow/0.01” L.E.

 

Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations:

New Snow: 0.1 inches

New Liquid: 0.01 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 10.0

Snow Density: 10.0% H2O

Temperature: 28.6 F

Sky: Cloudy

Snow at the stake: 2.0 inches

 

We had very light snow falling last night at the house, with generally small flakes of 3 mm or less, and the BTV NWS indicates that the snow was from low and mid-level moisture south of a deepening H5 shortwave trough.  We’ve had some flakes in the air even into this morning, but it didn’t seem like anything that would result in accumulation, so I’d say we’re probably done with that system at our site.  That was the first of the four systems that the models have been showing this week, and likely the weakest for our area unless the forecast change dramatically.  The next system is expected to affect the area later today into tonight:

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Burlington VT

1026 AM EST Tue Jan 14 2020

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

As of 1026 AM EST Tuesday...Another shortwave trough passes just to our northwest tonight...similar to the shortwave on Monday. Increasing dynamic support and sufficient moisture in the lower levels supports the idea of light snow becoming fairly widespread across the area tonight with most locations seeing an inch of less...but a couple of inches in the mountains should fall. And much like the Monday system forecast soundings once again show no ice in the dendritic growth zone and during the overnight hours tonight through about mid- morning on Wednesday the potential for light freezing drizzle will exist.

[J.Spin]

These past couple of days in Burlington have really felt like those inversion episodes we’d get in the Bitterroot when we lived out there, and it’s been a really raw, bone-chilling cold, even though the temperatures are actually pretty modest around the freezing mark.  Those mountain valleys in Montana would be under inversion and we’d often sit there for many days while the trees built up beautiful hoarfrost formations.  It’s all that moisture in the air that really seems to make it feel so raw, and the lack of sun (unless you go to elevation) means you don’t get any warmth from above either.  Thankfully the weather is much more active around here so the episodes don’t last too long before the next system comes around to sweep things out.

[J.Spin]

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

Another event where i’m torn between snowblower or shovel. Will probably blow it since a bigger one is coming and I need a packed layer to avoid throwing rocks. 

I actually base most of my driveway snow management on liquid equivalent now, and that works really well for our climate (so it’s another great reason to measure liquid for storms).  Unless the storm is over about a half inch of liquid, we typically just pack it down by driving over it with the cars to turn it into that base layer.  Even with those smaller events that we pack down, I still typically pull out the shovel to take care of the plow berm at the end of the driveway, since that tends to form a lump if you don’t do something about it.  Once we get over that half inch of liquid mark is when I have to start thinking about the snow thrower.  There’s sort of a gray area in there in the 0.5”-1.0” of liquid range where it will depend on how the layer is behaving, is there a thaw coming, etc.  The 1.0” of liquid point is where we pretty much have to clear it.

I will say that after a couple of rather icy stretches last season, I finally got around to getting some chains for my snow thrower.  I’d been wanting to get them for a number of years, and it’s definitely got a lot more pulling power now.  We’ve got a decent pitch on our driveway, and now I find that I don’t have to be adding the assist in uphill pushing that I’d have to do in slippery conditions (which can be often since we keep a base of snow).  It’s a bit tougher moving the snow thrower around the garage with the chains on, but that seems to be about the only downside.  I finally had to pull the snow thrower out for the first time this season after that bigger event earlier this month, so I got to try it out.  It’s been such a tremendous addition in performance that I wouldn’t go back.

[J.Spin]

20 hours ago, powderfreak said:

18z GFS continues with it's theme of hammering the NW flow terrain with QPF.  Odd to see it that robust with two meager lows moving through without a big closed cyclonic flow or something.

I’ve been noticing that for the potential Thursday and weekend systems.  The Thursday one seems to cruise right on by without much of a change in latitude, so it doesn’t seem like the backside flow would be that pronounced.  The potential weekend one does appear to curve up toward the Gaspé, which seems to support some upslope flow a bit more.  I’m just looking at the surface maps though, I guess there could be some trailer energy in the mid or upper levels that would support what’s being shown.

[wxeyeNH]

Some light snow has begun for tonight's little system

31.8/28

Seems like winter finally arrives for NNE.  Bit of snow tonight.  Then the Thursday system.  Arctic air with  upslope after that.  Then the weekends storm.  GFS has a 960mb storm crossing the area in fantasy land around next weekend.  Let's just hope it's not a cutter to bring a big melt but like I said that's fantasy land.  During this time enough cold air for the duration so there will be no melting

[alex]

Nice snow tonight. Not heavy but big flakes

[J.Spin]

Event totals: 0.2” Snow/0.02” L.E.

 

Details from the 10:00 P.M. Waterbury observations:

New Snow: 0.2 inches

New Liquid: 0.02 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 10.0

Snow Density: 10.0% H2O

Temperature: 32.9 F

Sky: Flurries

Snow at the stake: 2.0 inches

 

There were a few flakes in the air when I was leaving Burlington earlier this evening, but that was all I saw until I started to head into the mountains.  Light flakes were more prevalent as I got to Bolton Flats, and then increased in intensity as I headed up the pass toward our house.  We had a couple tenths of an inch of accumulation at that point, and since then we’ve had some wet flakes of fairly light intensity.

[J.Spin]

Below I’ve got the latest maps from the BTV NWS for the next storm.  They’ve got some substantial accumulations expected along the spine of the Northern Greens at this point, and we’ll see how things change with the next update.

[J.Spin]

The latest maps from the BTV NWS for the storm in the area tomorrow are below.  There are Winter Storm Warnings along the spine of the Northern Greens and parts of the Adirondacks, with Winter Weather Advisories elsewhere.  The projected accumulations look similar to last night’s map, and have our area along the edge of the 6-8” and 8-12” zones.  The point forecast here indicates roughly 6-10” of snow through Thursday evening, which seems in good agreement with the map.