#NoPoles Posted November 22, 2019 Share Posted November 22, 2019 4 hours ago, dendrite said: 38F here. Enjoy your SE flow downslope. It'll be nice up there in April when you have SCT skies and 60F while it's 45F and drizzle down here. SE is downslope here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
backedgeapproaching Posted November 22, 2019 Share Posted November 22, 2019 16 minutes ago, #NoPoles said: SE is downslope here? Just looking at the topography looks like downsloping from S, SE, E. As you and Alex know though you can reap the rewards on the Nw/N upslope flow. HIE is known as the one of the biggest SE downslope pits I believe. Look at every 3k nam precip map, you could have March 93 redux coming up the coast and I swear it would print out .25" qpf for whitefield. It does the same for DDH, always a ridiculous minimum in any SE flow event. A bit overdone, but you get the idea. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
backedgeapproaching Posted November 22, 2019 Share Posted November 22, 2019 RGEM is interesting, nukes this little sucker CVT/NVT up through NH and NW Maine. ALY totally MEH on this event in their AFD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alex Posted November 23, 2019 Share Posted November 23, 2019 Getting some really good snow tonight. Too bad it’s so windy 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 23, 2019 Share Posted November 23, 2019 1 hour ago, backedgeapproaching said: Just looking at the topography looks like downsloping from S, SE, E. As you and Alex know though you can reap the rewards on the Nw/N upslope flow. HIE is known as the one of the biggest SE downslope pits I believe. Look at every 3k nam precip map, you could have March 93 redux coming up the coast and I swear it would print out .25" qpf for whitefield. It does the same for DDH, always a ridiculous minimum in any SE flow event. A bit overdone, but you get the idea. Yeah it depends on where she lives. Alex at 1,500ft in Bretton Woods would be saved relatively on SE flow as he's tucked in closer to the terrain.... but get a few miles further out and it probably is a very sharp gradient. Similar to our upslope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 23, 2019 Share Posted November 23, 2019 Just now, alex said: Getting some really good snow tonight. Too bad it’s so windy I just came in to post that we just had a nice flare up and period of decent snow dusting us up in the last hour. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alex Posted November 23, 2019 Share Posted November 23, 2019 Just now, powderfreak said: Yeah it depends on where she lives. Alex at 1,500ft in Bretton Woods would be saved relatively on SE flow as he's tucked in closer to the terrain.... but get a few miles further out and it probably is a very sharp gradient. Similar to our upslope. I find you need some really strong winds for it to matter. In most cases the difference is not very noticeable until you get to Whitefield or towards Littleton Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
backedgeapproaching Posted November 23, 2019 Share Posted November 23, 2019 6 minutes ago, alex said: I find you need some really strong winds for it to matter. In most cases the difference is not very noticeable until you get to Whitefield or towards Littleton Right, as PF mentioned your tucked in close, similar to me with the greens, so not as much distance for the downslope waterfall effect. Where is Nopoles, i guess a little further out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
backedgeapproaching Posted November 23, 2019 Share Posted November 23, 2019 Couple tenths here tonight as some orographic snow kicked up in the past hour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alex Posted November 23, 2019 Share Posted November 23, 2019 19 minutes ago, backedgeapproaching said: Right, as PF mentioned your tucked in close, similar to me with the greens, so not as much distance for the downslope waterfall effect. Where is Nopoles, i guess a little further out? About 5 miles west of me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted November 23, 2019 Share Posted November 23, 2019 Event totals: 0.1” Snow/0.08 L.E. The most recent storm has cleared out, so the above snow and liquid values are the final totals here. Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.1 inches New Liquid: Trace Temperature: 21.7 F Sky: Mostly Clear Snow at the stake: 2.0 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted November 23, 2019 Share Posted November 23, 2019 The forecast around here has changed fairly dramatically from even yesterday evening, where there wasn’t much precipitation expected with this next system, but now a Winter Storm Watch is in place: Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 413 AM EST Sat Nov 23 2019 .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 334 AM EST Saturday... We`ve seen a rather dramatic shift northward shift with the 00Z NWP guidance suite with the track and evolution of strong low pressure affecting our region for Sunday. The 00Z NAM, GFS and ECMWF all indicated the northward shift, with 00Z NAM and ECMWF indicating sfc low track across RI and sern MA (984mb low in operational 00Z ECMWF soln). Likewise, system development occurs early enough that models indicate a closed 700mb low to our south across sern NY/Long Island around 18Z Sunday. These trends are favorable for a period of moderate to heavy precipitation across central/ern portions of our forecast area, especially Sunday afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 23, 2019 Share Posted November 23, 2019 JMHO, but I think those snow amounts near PF and Jspin will go up with the aftn package. Pretty good signal nearby for heavier snows. We'll see what 12z stuff says. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted November 23, 2019 Share Posted November 23, 2019 20 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: JMHO, but I think those snow amounts near PF and Jspin will go up with the aftn package. Pretty good signal nearby for heavier snows. We'll see what 12z stuff says. That certainly seems possible based on some guidance. I really like that the BTV NWS typically seems to take their snow forecasting step by step and only slowly ramps it up as needed. We don’t have massive population centers that lead to huge traffic pileups and the folks around here are well acclimated to the snowy climate, so I think they have a bit more leeway to take a conservative approach. That’s the way it feels to me at least, even if it’s not official policy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 23, 2019 Share Posted November 23, 2019 Just now, J.Spin said: That certainly seems possible based on some guidance. I really like that the BTV NWS typically seems to take their snow forecasting step by step and only slowly ramps it up as needed. We don’t have massive population centers that lead to huge traffic pileups and the folks around here are well acclimated to the snowy climate, so I think they have a bit more leeway to take a conservative approach. That’s the way it feels to me at least, even if it’s not official policy. I’m thinking a little out of the box with the banding. The model QPF states those amounts, but the 700 low seems to argue for a bit more, hence why I mentioned that. We were talking about it in the general November thread too. Of course, easy to say that when you’re not in the hot seat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted November 23, 2019 Share Posted November 23, 2019 Here’s the midday projected snow accumulations map from the BTV NWS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted November 23, 2019 Share Posted November 23, 2019 I just got a text alert that we’re under a Winter Weather Advisory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 23, 2019 Share Posted November 23, 2019 Down to an advisory has to be because guidance has ticked a few SE with the track of the SLP today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 23, 2019 Share Posted November 23, 2019 Not that impressed to be honest, ha. The last 24 hours of Euro runs have ranged from around 0.2” to 1.15” at MVL. The lack of consistency is concerning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alex Posted November 24, 2019 Share Posted November 24, 2019 I was down in North Conway today and it seems so weird that it's completely bare ground there. Living up here the early seasons seem like a different season. Mid winter here, late fall there. Kinda cool for such a short distance. Also interesting to notice that while generally (I assume) much less snowy, Littleton also seems to have a longer snow season than Conway. I love the microclimates of this area. Winter Storm Warnings up. We'll see! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted November 24, 2019 Author Share Posted November 24, 2019 1 hour ago, alex said: I was down in North Conway today and it seems so weird that it's completely bare ground there. Living up here the early seasons seem like a different season. Mid winter here, late fall there. Kinda cool for such a short distance. Also interesting to notice that while generally (I assume) much less snowy, Littleton also seems to have a longer snow season than Conway. I love the microclimates of this area. Winter Storm Warnings up. We'll see! Couple of days ago when you had that beautiful snowfall north of the notch was amazing too. Totally bare ground in Lincoln. Even the mountains around town were bare. Drive into Franconia Notch and come out the other side with substantial snowcover on the ground and on the trees. Guess that how it is on the different sides of the VT spine but it's think it's more rare here for abrupt changes. Maybe not? In any event you have had constant snowcover for a couple of weeks now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 24, 2019 Share Posted November 24, 2019 28.3° -SN We white Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted November 24, 2019 Share Posted November 24, 2019 Nothing happening here. Looks like there was a little freezing rain overnight as the cars look like there is a glaze on them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 24, 2019 Share Posted November 24, 2019 On 11/23/2019 at 8:19 AM, CoastalWx said: JMHO, but I think those snow amounts near PF and Jspin will go up with the aftn package. Pretty good signal nearby for heavier snows. We'll see what 12z stuff says. JMHO but that wasn’t a good take. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted November 24, 2019 Share Posted November 24, 2019 I've been pretty content with my weather bug app. It never had more than 3-6 for this event and it was never 100% snow...surprisingly, weather bug has been decently accurate for my area... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted November 24, 2019 Share Posted November 24, 2019 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: JMHO but that wasn’t a good take. Right, but you even pointed out that you were thinking out of the box and wouldn’t necessarily have gone that route if you were actually responsible for the forecast. I think that disparity speaks to what does on for some of the “weenies” in the forum – if they have zero responsibility related to their predictions, they’re sort of free to go wild and say whatever they want, then you meteorologists have to reign them in. I get it that this sort of a “hobby” for many people, but from my perspective, the grandiose snowfall predictions always come off as sort of “weenie-ish?” (I guess that’s a term) I assume it’s all part of the drama. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 24, 2019 Share Posted November 24, 2019 2 minutes ago, J.Spin said: Right, but you even pointed out that you were thinking out of the box and wouldn’t necessarily have gone that route if you were actually responsible for the forecast. I think that disparity speaks to what does on for some of the “weenies” in the forum – if they have zero responsibility related to their predictions, they’re sort of free to go wild and say whatever they want, then you meteorologists have to reign them in. I get it that this sort of a “hobby” for many people, but from my perspective, the grandiose snowfall predictions always come off as sort of “weenie-ish?” (I guess that’s a term) I assume it’s all part of the drama. I certainly wasn’t trying to go the weenie route either. It’s just that we know guidance struggles with mid-level banding, and yesterday morning it looked good in your area. Of course everything slid east and that argument went away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted November 24, 2019 Share Posted November 24, 2019 I didn’t see traces of any precipitation overnight, but the first flakes of this event are just starting to fall here in Waterbury. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted November 24, 2019 Share Posted November 24, 2019 I think Alex said he was about 200ft higher than me? I got a text from him earlier saying it had changed to snow. Where I am it is still rain/freezing rain...I am about 5 miles west of him Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted November 24, 2019 Share Posted November 24, 2019 9 minutes ago, #NoPoles said: I think Alex said he was about 200ft higher than me? I got a text from him earlier saying it had changed to snow. Where I am it is still rain/freezing rain...I am about 5 miles west of him Prob oughtta change your location, Di - says you're still in Plymouth, MA! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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