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October Discobs 2019


George BM
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7 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

Monthly record high min appears to be in play at DCA.  Record is 75 and we've either been to 75 or 76 so far this morning.  With the front not coming until after midnight, we could stay elevated.  Midnight high definitely in play for tomorrow and maybe still today.

I hate midnight highs. They're just so wrong.

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1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

Decent model consensus for another good cold push that weekend behind a hopefully significant Rainer.

Both the latest EPS and GEFS have a fairly strong signal of a -NAO locking in around the 10th or so while the PNA returns to a neutral state and the MJO meanders between phases 8 and 1. Analog guidance is pretty bullish about a flip to a colder-than-normal pattern by mid-month. 

cips analogs.png

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Just be glad, those on the other side of that BDCF. I SHATTERED the record set today (90.4) for tomorrow am. 93.3 degrees! In OCTOBER!! I'd had 1 90 degree reading in 39 years of observations in October, and then pull a back to back this year, nuts! I hope we go to zero in 3 weeks to make up for this silliness! Edit, oh and BTW, Roanoke-99 Lynchburg-98, Danville-98, Blacksburg-94

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I noticed Mount Holly is less impressed with the chances of "heavy rain" for here next week. Now my forecast says chance of showers lol. Ofc I expected this, and in the end it will be a pity shower or some drizzle, with the main energy staying well west and heading up into NE. At least temps will be normal.

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1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said:

I noticed Mount Holly is less impressed with the chances of "heavy rain" for here next week. Now my forecast says chance of showers lol. Ofc I expected this, and in the end it will be a pity shower or some drizzle, with the main energy staying well west and heading up into NE. At least temps will be normal.

Yeah. I'm sure we won't see a drop. My point and click has slowly taken the chance out for Monday and Tuesday. I'm pretty impressed by this drought. Amazing how horrible it looks from AA country all the way to OC. Trees are dieing, grass is gone. 

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26 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

We are going to put up a fat + departure today post-frontal.  Amazing.

Blew the midnight high.

Warm always wins

edit...It’s pretty remarkable that after such a strong cold front we will have one day with below normal temperatures.

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