yoda Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 More sun poking out here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: TOR issued by LWX for Washington, MD and Allegany, MD and hampshire/hardy, wv BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 505 PM EDT Thu Oct 31 2019 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Western Washington County in north central Maryland... East central Allegany County in western Maryland... Northwestern Morgan County in the Panhandle of West Virginia... Northeastern Hampshire County in eastern West Virginia... * Until 530 PM EDT. * At 505 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located 8 miles southeast of Fort Ashby, or 9 miles northeast of Romney, moving northeast at 50 mph. HAZARD...Tornado. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...For those in the direct path of a tornado touchdown, flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Damage to roofs, siding, and windows may occur. Mobile homes may be damaged or destroyed. Tree damage is likely. * Locations impacted include... Paw Paw, Great Cacapon, Johnsons Mill, Omps, Three Churches, Valley View, Higginsville, Fishers Bridge, Magnolia, Rock Gap, Stotlers Crossroads, Highland Ridge, Points, Largent, Smith Crossroads, Levels and Berryville. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. Heavy rainfall may hide this tornado. Do not wait to see or hear the tornado. TAKE COVER NOW! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
09-10 analogy Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 FWIW, SPC meso analysis has supercell composite of 8 -12. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacindc Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 Sun peeking out on Capitol Hill.Sent from my Pixel 3 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 Man this "line" looks pretty paltry so far, wonder if its just in the mts. away from a good radar cross section or if we're too stable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 24 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Man this "line" looks pretty paltry so far, wonder if its just in the mts. away from a good radar cross section or if we're too stable. Agree, but just judging by how the winds are gusting right now 20-30 mph out in front of it, it doesn’t seem like it’s gonna take much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 22 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Man this "line" looks pretty paltry so far, wonder if its just in the mts. away from a good radar cross section or if we're too stable. Did you seriously expect this to produce? In THIS area? In late October? Should be a decent squall line a bit later with some very localized wind damage..that's about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 Incoming for Charlottesville... let’s see if I survive the gusty winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 Incoming for Charlottesville... let’s see if I survive the gusty winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 NWS tends to give out warnings like people giving out candy on Halloween. I expect warnings into western Loudoun soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 47 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Man this "line" looks pretty paltry so far, wonder if its just in the mts. away from a good radar cross section or if we're too stable. It's broken right now - should congeal as it comes east. Could intensify further. We'll see. Per mesoanalysis - the best combo of ingredients is currently sitting a hair west of DC proper. And then running north and south. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 21z HRRR shows the line intensifying a bit as it comes east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 21z HRRR shows the line intensifying a bit as it comes east. Super lame in Charlottesville. Hope you guys have more luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 The one thing that may be wrong with the HRRR is the instability on the model looks pretty high. Over 1K Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 Looks like a lot of crapvection caused by the mountains ahead of the line. Maybe it improves once it gets east and merges. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 Looking nastier on radar now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrs.J Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 Line is advancing on my back door. Currently just South if the Thunderstorm Warning that was just issued. Getting some lightning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 Winds starting to crank out in front, easily gusting 25-30+ now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 Tornado warning down in the Madison county area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 Wind has really slacked off in Reisterstown but the clouds are still racing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 2 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: Tornado warning down in the Madison county area That's headed NE toward DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 1 minute ago, yoda said: That's headed NE toward DC It's very far away lol. It has a lot of ground to cover before it would threaten the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 New MCD states threat for damaging winds and tornadoes is increasing across the region Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 Just now, Kmlwx said: It's very far away lol. It has a lot of ground to cover before it would threaten the city. An hour away lol... these storms are moving NE anywhere from 50 to 70 mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 1 minute ago, yoda said: New MCD states threat for damaging winds and tornadoes is increasing across the region Mesoscale Discussion 2135 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0614 PM CDT Thu Oct 31 2019 Areas affected...northern Virginia...Maryland...southeast Pennsylvania Concerning...Tornado Watch 686...690... Valid 312314Z - 010115Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 686, 690 continues. SUMMARY...The threat for damaging storms, including tornadoes, is increasing across the area. DISCUSSION...Storms continue to evolve along the rapidly advancing cold front, into a warm and marginally unstable air mass. Area VWPs show extreme shear in place, with 0-1 SRH of 500-750 m2/s2 favoring both QLCS and isolated supercells. Minor capping has limited strong/severe storm coverage, but increasing large-scale lift should allow for an increasing severe threat through the evening. Damaging winds are likely, and a few tornadoes are possible as well with these fast-moving storms. For areas east of the ongoing tornado watches, including NJ and DE, the severe threat is lesser, but still cannot be ruled out as the front approaches a cooler, less-unstable air mass near the coast. Given such extreme shear and lift, a few severe storms may persist farther east than expected, and additional watches and/or extensions may be considered this evening. ..Jewell.. 10/31/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PHI...BGM...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 Storm moving into Fauquier/Madison/Culpepper Counties that just got STW has history of producing tree damage in Oak Park Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 STW Carroll/Frederick/Howard/Montgomery/Loudoun counties till 815pm... possible TOR wording in warning BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 724 PM EDT Thu Oct 31 2019 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Western Carroll County in north central Maryland... Northwestern Howard County in central Maryland... Western Montgomery County in central Maryland... Frederick County in north central Maryland... Loudoun County in northern Virginia... * Until 815 PM EDT. * At 724 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line extending from near Carroll Valley to Middleburg, moving east at 45 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured light objects may become projectiles. * Locations impacted include... Germantown, Frederick, Gaithersburg, Leesburg, Westminster, Damascus, Broadlands, Lansdowne, Lowes Island, Brambleton, Thurmont, Poolesville, Emmitsburg, Harry Grove Stadium, Ashburn, Montgomery Village, Sterling, North Potomac, Ballenger Creek and Countryside. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Tornado Watch remains in effect until midnight EDT for central and north central Maryland...northern Virginia...and the Panhandle of West Virginia. Remain alert for a possible tornado! Tornadoes can develop quickly from severe thunderstorms. If you spot a tornado go at once into the basement or small central room in a sturdy structure. For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. LAT...LON 3972 7696 3903 7725 3906 7733 3899 7740 3896 7773 3900 7788 3930 7775 3933 7768 3938 7765 3961 7757 3967 7749 3969 7751 3972 7747 TIME...MOT...LOC 2324Z 258DEG 40KT 3971 7743 3899 7773 TORNADO...POSSIBLE HAIL...<.75IN WIND...60MPH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrs.J Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 About to get it here. Thunder and lightning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 12 minutes ago, yoda said: Storm moving into Fauquier/Madison/Culpepper Counties that just got STW has history of producing tree damage in Oak Park Storm was moving NE earlier... now turning and moving east per latest SWS near Culpepper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted October 31, 2019 Author Share Posted October 31, 2019 Just hit a daily high of 78F at IAD. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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