NorthArlington101 Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 Low level clouds are racing across the sky in Cville. I haven’t personally seen any sun. Probably gonna be stuck in class for the main event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 Visible satellite would suggest that we probably don't see any big breaks in the clouds, but anything helps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said: Visible satellite would suggest that we probably don't see any big breaks in the clouds, but anything helps. Yeah I don't see any sustained clearing - but definitely some pockets where the sun could pop out. Any sun could really boost instability so we max potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 Just a little breezy so far today. Although, this brief moderate shower moving through has produced gusty conditions. Reminds me of a tropical system. Roughly 30mph or so but you can see how 50+ will be pretty easy with some convection. Sent from my SM-G973U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 Light rain and windy in Annapolis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 23 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: Yeah I don't see any sustained clearing - but definitely some pockets where the sun could pop out. Any sun could really boost instability so we max potential. Just as we say this things start to clear out south of us...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 Just now, Eskimo Joe said: Just as we say this things start to clear out south of us...... Getting a little bit of sun poking through the clouds here right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Z-Cast Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 Sun here in Bealeton Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 Quote BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA 226 PM EDT Thu Oct 31 2019 The National Weather Service in BLACKSBURG has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Northwestern Greenbrier County in southeastern West Virginia... * Until 300 PM EDT. * At 225 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located near Babcock State Park, moving northeast at 45 mph. HAZARD...Tornado. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. * Locations impacted include... Rainelle... Quinwood... Bingham... Duo... and Anjean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 8 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Just as we say this things start to clear out south of us...... Yeah today could be a legit deal if we get more than just a bit of sunshine. Line is already taking shape nicely. Lots of wind reports with it already - which is impressive given that it's going through relatively low population density areas. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 17z HRRR brings a nice looking updraft helicity swath through western parts of the DC area. Like western Montgomery County. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 Just now, Kmlwx said: Yeah today could be a legit deal if we get more than just a bit of sunshine. Line is already taking shape nicely. Lots of wind reports with it already - which is impressive given that it's going through relatively low population density areas. Mid level cloud deck is really clearing out all the way up to Cumberland now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 I don't think the sun is what will get us the storms today, guys. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 Just now, H2O said: I don't think the sun is what will get us the storms today, guys. storms either way, will get uglier with sun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 238 PM EDT Thu Oct 31 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure over Lake Erie this afternoon will track northeastward up the Saint Lawrence River valley through Friday, dragging a powerful cold front across the Mid-Atlantic this evening. High pressure will build in for Friday through Saturday. A much weaker and drier cold front will cross the region Saturday night. Another high pressure will build across the region Sunday through Monday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... Strengthening, dynamic storm system is currently crossing the eastern United States. So far, we`ve only seen some periods of rain and considerably warmer-than-normal temperatures with a gusty south breeze. However, the cold front will cross the region late this afternoon and this evening. Very strong wind fields in excess of 50 knots very close to the surface are resulting in plenty of shear, and the powerful cold front will also feature a dramatic pressure rise of 10 mb or more in just a couple hours immediately behind it. The warm and moist air mass with PW`s closing in on 2 inches is trying to destabilize, and while its nothing compared to what we get in early summer, enough CAPE and shear are present with the potent dynamics aloft to promote widespread severe weather. Most of this should be in the form of the squall line currently seen on radar over West Virginia stretching southward into the western Carolinas, which will be racing northeastward across our region through this evening. However, just enough instability is present such that a discrete supercell ahead of the main line can`t be completely ruled out this evening. With all the wind present aloft, it won`t take much to bring damaging gusts down to the surface. In addition, the low level shear will bring a risk of quickly spinning up tornadoes right on the main line. A tornado watch may be issued in the next few hours. With the high PW`s, there is a risk of heavy rain and brief minor flooding, though expect the rain to be just brief enough to preclude the issuance of a flash flood watch. Winds may also last or reintensify right behind the squall line and could gust up to 45-50 mph for an hour or so right behind the front. Given the close proximity of this feature to the main squalls, decided to not issue a wind advisory for locations east of the current advisory, but its possible a short- fuse one gets issued to cover this threat in the next few hours. Otherwise, the main advisory should cover the greater period of higher gusts likely at the higher elevations in western VA and WV. Behind the main squall line and winds, clearing skies should take hold in most areas as high pressure builds in. The cold air moving in could reach our highest elevations quickly enough to bring a coating of snow, but this is most likely confined to locations above 4000 feet, such as Spruce Knob. Elsewhere, drying conditions with lows in the 40s can be expected after midnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
emblaze2 Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 Patches of blue sky above Gaithersburg, MD. Low level stuff racing northward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 SPC issues TORNADO WATCH until 04:00 UTC 11/01/19 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 Those are absurd probabilities for Halloween. 30% of EF2+ whoa... "A couple of intense tornadoes possible" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 18 minutes ago, H2O said: I don't think the sun is what will get us the storms today, guys. Agree - but more fuel for the fire. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted October 31, 2019 Author Share Posted October 31, 2019 2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: SPC issues TORNADO WATCH until 04:00 UTC 11/01/19 60/30 TOR Probs... with 90/40 wind probs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 You've gotta wonder with those watch probabilities if hatching could be introduced at 20z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 Sun and some legit pockets of blue sky peeking out in Baltimore County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 Just now, Kmlwx said: You've gotta wonder with those watch probabilities if hatching could be introduced at 20z. If hatching is introduced then we go MOD. We're at the highest for ENH right now without going MOD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilentTalkie Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 From Nelson County - Via WPOA and Wintergreen Fire & Rescue : “We are currently experiencing hazardous conditions at and around Wintergreen. Winds are gusting over 50 mph, rain is heavy at times, and fog is thick. The wind has stripped nearly all foliage and created slippery roads. Trees have blocked roads and there have been traffic accidents. For the remainder of the afternoon, if you're able, please avoid driving and outdoor activities at Wintergreen.” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 SPC issues TORNADO WATCH until 03:00 UTC 11/01/19 https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0687.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 7 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Sun and some legit pockets of blue sky peeing out in Baltimore County. not this part of the county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 6 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: If hatching is introduced then we go MOD. We're at the highest for ENH right now without going MOD. The watch probs in our watch and the one to the south would seem to indicate we could go moderate. I'm not sure it'll happen but if there's an event this could be it - especially with potential high impact on Halloween. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 1 minute ago, losetoa6 said: Dew points over 70...its almost November ...damn...juicy . Just got home ...real breezy out. yeah i've noticed the breeze has picked up in Hunt Valley Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 9 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Sun and some legit pockets of blue sky peeing out in Baltimore County. That's unfortunate...rain gear may be extra useful then. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 LWX sending up special 18z raob. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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