Eskimo Joe Posted October 30, 2019 Share Posted October 30, 2019 Just now, Kmlwx said: Sweet! Thanks! Not sure how I had no idea about this. It's buried in a disorganized website that needs a UI overhaul. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted October 30, 2019 Share Posted October 30, 2019 43 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: It's buried in a disorganized website that needs a UI overhaul. Does Horst have plans to get that updated to a cleaner interface? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 30, 2019 Share Posted October 30, 2019 Just now, Kmlwx said: Does Horst have plans to get that updated to a cleaner interface? ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted October 30, 2019 Share Posted October 30, 2019 ENH ISSUED ON 1730 OTLKboo. Trick or Treating on the Lawn is one of the greatest traditions at UVA. Would suck to see weather impact it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 30, 2019 Share Posted October 30, 2019 10 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: boo. Trick or Treating on the Lawn is one of the greatest traditions at UVA. Would suck to see weather impact it. Trick or Treating won't be impacted if society weren't a bunch of snowflakes that cancel at the first cloud. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted October 30, 2019 Share Posted October 30, 2019 Trick or Treating won't be impacted if society weren't a bunch of snowflakes that cancel at the first cloud.meh. If gusty storms and heavy rains with T&L pass over the fully outdoor lawn with a ton of kids, I don’t blame them for hypothetically cancelling. It’s not like this would just be raindrops 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted October 30, 2019 Share Posted October 30, 2019 VERY strong wording from LWX. Their headline in the short term portion of the AFD is A potentially dangerous weather event is unfolding for Thursday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted October 30, 2019 Share Posted October 30, 2019 4 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: VERY strong wording from LWX. Their headline in the short term portion of the AFD is A potentially dangerous weather event is unfolding for Thursday congrats Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 30, 2019 Share Posted October 30, 2019 8 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: VERY strong wording from LWX. Their headline in the short term portion of the AFD is A potentially dangerous weather event is unfolding for Thursday Guess you are in? Rest of disco sounds... scary for Halloween .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... A potentially dangerous weather event is unfolding for Thursday. A strengthening mid/upper low will deepen and take on a negative tilt (trough axis extending from northwest to southeast) as it approaches the area by nightfall Thursday. Meanwhile, a surface low with origins over the northern Gulf Coast and lower Mississippi River Valley will strengthen as it moves northeastward into the upper Ohio River Valley and eastern Great Lakes. As the low deepens, it will move around stubborn ridging off the southeast coast of the United States. The pressure gradient between these two system will result in a very strong low-level jet (up to 75 MPH 5000 feet above ground level). This jet will continue to advect an anomalously warm and humid airmass into the region, with PWATs of 1.75-2.00 inches (see Hydrology Section below for more details). The warm and humid airmass will lead to increasingly unstable conditions despite the abundant cloud cover, lower sun angle and lack of appreciable surface heating (at least in the traditional sense). High temperatures into the mid 70s and dew points approaching 70 will result in 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE by evening immediately ahead of a very strong cold front approaching from the west. As the aforementioned low pulls northeastward into Canada, its trailing cold front will plow through the Mid- Atlantic during the evening, accompanied by a band of showers and embedded thunderstorms with the potential to produce heavy rainfall and damaging wind gusts. SPC has placed much of the region in an Enhanced Risk (the third highest in a five level scale denoting severe weather risk). The main threats are damaging straight-line wind gusts aided by the strong low-level jet and pressure surge (rises of nearly 10 mb in 3 hours) along the front. A secondary threat is heavy rainfall and tornadoes given the high humidity and strong, veering low-level flow. Everyone should make sure they have a way to receive warnings and get to shelter quickly should severe weather threaten your neighborhood tomorrow evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted October 30, 2019 Share Posted October 30, 2019 9 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: VERY strong wording from LWX. Their headline in the short term portion of the AFD is A potentially dangerous weather event is unfolding for Thursday they worried about tornadoes? otherwise, looks like a typical frontal pass to me with a robust line out ahead of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 30, 2019 Share Posted October 30, 2019 Just now, mappy said: they worried about tornadoes? otherwise, looks like a typical frontal pass to me with a robust line out ahead of it. Sounds like it even though its a secondary threat as they state in the AFD... i posted the rest of it above just before your post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted October 30, 2019 Share Posted October 30, 2019 Just now, yoda said: Sounds like it even though its a secondary threat as they state in the AFD... i posted the rest of it above just before your post I read it. doesn't sound super crazy to me. i mean yeah its a strong front, but "potentially dangerous"? probably just wording it that way because its halloween and the line is expected to come through during prime trick or treating. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted October 30, 2019 Author Share Posted October 30, 2019 Just now, mappy said: I read it. doesn't sound super crazy to me. i mean yeah its a strong front, but "potentially dangerous"? probably just wording it that way because its halloween and the line is expected to come through during prime trick or treating. The alluding to Halloween portion of the disco: "Everyone should make sure they have a way to receive warnings and get to shelter quickly should severe weather threaten your neighborhood tomorrow evening." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted October 30, 2019 Share Posted October 30, 2019 Just now, George BM said: The alluding to Halloween portion of the disco: "Everyone should make sure they have a way to receive warnings and get to shelter quickly should severe weather threaten your neighborhood tomorrow evening." everyone should make sure they have ways to receive warnings regardless of when and what day it is. my comment was about the "potentially dangerous" part, at the time of the AFD. I personally don't see it being potentially dangerous minus a QLCS tornado or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted October 30, 2019 Share Posted October 30, 2019 @yoda - I'm in for "interesting weather" other than what we've been getting lately with just sun or rain. I'm *not* in for a widespread damaging event. LWX in typical fashion will find a way to issue 30+ SVRs tomorrow though (I kid in good fun) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted October 30, 2019 Share Posted October 30, 2019 Just now, mappy said: everyone should make sure they have ways to receive warnings regardless of when and what day it is. my comment was about the "potentially dangerous" part, at the time of the AFD. I personally don't see it being potentially dangerous minus a QLCS tornado or two. @mappy - WOW SO JUDGEY. ALL TORNADOES ARE DANGEROUS. How dare you undermine QLCS cutie tornadoes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 30, 2019 Share Posted October 30, 2019 Just now, Kmlwx said: @yoda - I'm in for "interesting weather" other than what we've been getting lately with just sun or rain. I'm *not* in for a widespread damaging event. LWX in typical fashion will find a way to issue 30+ SVRs tomorrow though (I kid in good fun) I believe @Eskimo Joe already called for a tornado watch tomorrow Wonder when the last time we have had a tornado watch issued for the LWX CWA in October or later... will have to look in the SPC archives after work Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 30, 2019 Share Posted October 30, 2019 Just now, Kmlwx said: @mappy - WOW SO JUDGEY. ALL TORNADOES ARE DANGEROUS. How dare you undermine QLCS cutie tornadoes. You know she will have pictures of one tomorrow on her table Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 30, 2019 Share Posted October 30, 2019 5 minutes ago, yoda said: I believe @Eskimo Joe already called for a tornado watch tomorrow Wonder when the last time we have had a tornado watch issued for the LWX CWA in October or later... will have to look in the SPC archives after work Here is one... October 27th, 2010 -- https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/event.php?date=20101027 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted October 30, 2019 Share Posted October 30, 2019 Just now, yoda said: Here is one... October 27th, 2010 -- https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/event.php?date=20101027 There was a tornado watch just south of LWX in October of last year (10/11) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted October 30, 2019 Share Posted October 30, 2019 9 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: @mappy - WOW SO JUDGEY. ALL TORNADOES ARE DANGEROUS. How dare you undermine QLCS cutie tornadoes. LOL not true at all. QLCS tornadoes are quick bastards, spin up quick and can cause some major damage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 30, 2019 Share Posted October 30, 2019 1 minute ago, Kmlwx said: There was a tornado watch just south of LWX in October of last year (10/11) Yup... but I was including only LWX CWA counties... looks like in 2010 we had a tornado watch on back to back days in October (26th and 27th) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted October 30, 2019 Share Posted October 30, 2019 Just now, losetoa6 said: What product is that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted October 30, 2019 Author Share Posted October 30, 2019 22 minutes ago, yoda said: Here is one... October 27th, 2010 -- https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/event.php?date=20101027 Though there was no Tornado Watch then, there were the quick spin-up EF-1 QLCS tornadoes in Maryland last November. 65/56 at IAD currently with thickening clouds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 30, 2019 Share Posted October 30, 2019 Here are the others I found on the SPC archive for Tornado Watches covering any part of the LWX CWA from November: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/event.php?date=20101130 (November 30th, 2010 and went into Dec 1, 2010 as a Tornado Watch was issued for the DC metro at 3:45am on Dec 1st) https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/event.php?date=20101116 (Nov 16 2010) https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/event.php?date=20061116 (Nov 16, 2006 -- in addition 1630 Day 1 OTLK had the ultra rare hatched TOR for i95 corridor including DC/BALT metros... along with the mention for isolated but potentially strong tornadoes in the 1630 SPC disco) https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/event.php?date=20021110 (Nov 11, 2002) Looks like only one for December: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/event.php?date=20001216 (Dec 16, 2000) The archive only goes back to 2000 though... so I am sure there were others before 2000 that had tornado watches for any portion of the LWX CWA 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 30, 2019 Share Posted October 30, 2019 Severe in this area usually underwhelms even at peak times for it. Severe in late October... Yeah, enjoy the heavy rain with some wind gusts. I am looking forward to an awesome fall weather weekend with widespread frost on Sunday night. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 30, 2019 Share Posted October 30, 2019 So... who's staying up tonight for the 0600 SPC Day 1 OTLK at or just before 2 am? Anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 30, 2019 Share Posted October 30, 2019 Just now, yoda said: So... who's staying up tonight for the 0600 SPC Day 1 OTLK at or just before 2 am? Anyone? I am going to try like heck to stay up for the Baseball game, but no, not losing sleep for severe "potential" in late Oct in the MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted October 30, 2019 Share Posted October 30, 2019 2 hours ago, Kmlwx said: VERY strong wording from LWX. Their headline in the short term portion of the AFD is A potentially dangerous weather event is unfolding for Thursday <EJ> Kids need to toughen up. If today’s helicopter, snowflake parents can’t let their kids handle a little rain then there’s no hope for them. </EJ> 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 30, 2019 Share Posted October 30, 2019 17 minutes ago, mattie g said: <EJ> Kids need to toughen up. If today’s helicopter, snowflake parents can’t let their kids handle a little rain then there’s no hope for them. </EJ> I hear schools are closing tomorrow 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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