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October Discobs 2019


George BM

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  On 10/21/2019 at 7:43 PM, WxUSAF said:

Euro much more in the NAM camp than the GFS for precip amounts tomorrow. 0.5-1” for the metro corridor, but much less for @C.A.P.E..

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I'm good with whatever now. Just wanted to get some decent rain so I could stop perpetually watering my new grass.

3.7" for the month now. I'll take a quarter inch to freshen up my snowpack, er, I mean soil moisture.

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So....including the 0.38 that fell today that will be added in the am, I am at 4.99 for the month now. Crazy after how dry it was the previous 75 days going back from end of Sept to mid July when I had 3.27 during a VERY hot period. After the weekend I will be way over 5 inches for October, and the total for July was 4.78, 90% falling pre mid month. Feast or famine.

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  On 10/23/2019 at 7:26 PM, WxUSAF said:

Euro and GGEM pretty close lately and in today’s 12z. Not sure if that is coincidence or if the GGEM has gotten better lately. @high risk?

 

For sensible weather, that means both give the big cold dump out west next week which modifies as it moves toward us. 

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This seems to be the trend and CPC is starting to believe it as well. It is alright, as long as it arrives properly for winter.

 

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  On 10/23/2019 at 10:32 PM, WxUSAF said:

Am I missing something with this frost advisory? Guidance looks like maybe near 40?

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Looks like a good radiational cooling night so I guess they are going a few degrees below guidance for the outlying areas. Calm winds and pretty low dews- mid 30s will produce some scattered frost. Had some pretty impressive frost here last Saturday morning in the open areas, with a forecast low of 39, and no frost advisory.

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