WVclimo Posted October 19, 2019 Share Posted October 19, 2019 31.4 for the low. First freeze of the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pedlar mills Posted October 19, 2019 Share Posted October 19, 2019 32 here first frost on things off of the ground Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted October 19, 2019 Share Posted October 19, 2019 In a shocking twist, the NAM caved. Big gradient on precip from NW to SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted October 19, 2019 Share Posted October 19, 2019 On 10/19/2019 at 2:15 PM, MN Transplant said: In a shocking twist, the NAM caved. Big gradient on precip from NW to SE.This one woulda hurt in winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted October 19, 2019 Share Posted October 19, 2019 On 10/19/2019 at 2:32 PM, NorthArlington101 said: This one woulda hurt in winter. Expand Just assume the NAM is wrong if it’s on an island more than 6 hours out...and even then I wouldn’t trust it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 19, 2019 Share Posted October 19, 2019 0.1” line basically runs 95 in MD tomorrow on the euro. Gfs and GGEM are both more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted October 19, 2019 Share Posted October 19, 2019 Just got 18z NAM'd like the good ole days. I can just picture us in 8 weeks hanging on to this small thread of hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted October 19, 2019 Share Posted October 19, 2019 On 10/19/2019 at 8:31 PM, losetoa6 said: 10 / 10 . Perfect day ! Expand Indeed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 19, 2019 Share Posted October 19, 2019 WPC pretty bullish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted October 20, 2019 Share Posted October 20, 2019 00z 3K NAM gets over 1” into DC with 2” just SE into southern parts of PG county. 12k less robust with 0.5” line just to the NW of DC and 0.75” line running through the city. Less NW, more SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted October 20, 2019 Share Posted October 20, 2019 From radar and what I have falling, looks like everything is west of the models?....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted October 20, 2019 Share Posted October 20, 2019 Second system that will be wetter west than models it appears I know it has zero connection with winter but a girl can dream Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 20, 2019 Share Posted October 20, 2019 Updated forecast for my yard is for 1 - 1.5 inches. We shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 20, 2019 Share Posted October 20, 2019 On 10/20/2019 at 4:26 AM, wxdude64 said: From radar and what I have falling, looks like everything is west of the models?....... Expand The guidance for several runs now has had some rain well into WV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted October 20, 2019 Share Posted October 20, 2019 On 10/20/2019 at 10:08 AM, C.A.P.E. said: Updated forecast for my yard is for 1 - 1.5 inches. We shall see. Expand Latest NAM is showing 2+ for you. Also shows 2+ DC north and east with Balt. at 3.5. Really wet run. And looking at radar looks as if it might lend some credence to the NAM. eta: Fairly sharp cutoff to the N and w though where I am only looking at .5 inches. But that was to be expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 20, 2019 Share Posted October 20, 2019 On 10/20/2019 at 10:21 AM, showmethesnow said: Latest NAM is showing 2+ for you. Also shows 2+ DC north and east with Balt. at 3.5. Really wet run. And looking at radar looks as if it might lend some credence to the NAM. Expand Yeah the NAM was being discounted by many forecasters a day ago, but it may end up being correct. Most guidance has trended towards its closer track/wetter solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted October 20, 2019 Share Posted October 20, 2019 Everyone makes fun of the Nam, but every now and then it nails a storm. Judging by current radar, it looks like it was clearly the best model for this storm. GFS was out to lunch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted October 20, 2019 Share Posted October 20, 2019 Radar looks good for an all day rain. Definitely came in more like NAM than the globals that kept pushing the rains south and east of the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted October 20, 2019 Share Posted October 20, 2019 On 10/20/2019 at 10:24 AM, C.A.P.E. said: Yeah the NAM was being discounted by many forecasters a day ago, but it may end up being correct. Most guidance has trended towards its closer track/wetter solution. Expand NAM as the model of choice for this winter. Got it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 20, 2019 Share Posted October 20, 2019 On 10/20/2019 at 11:45 AM, mattie g said: NAM as the model of choice for this winter. Got it. Expand NAM and/or the GGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted October 20, 2019 Share Posted October 20, 2019 Well, 1.07 emptied out of the CoCoRaHS gauge at 7 am and it is still raining at a fairly heavy rate. I can see what looks like the back edge down near Blacksburg/Radford and heading this way, but I may be in the 1.5 storm total range by time all this ends. Not bad for most models minus the NAM giving me +-0.25 two days ago........ Currently rain and 47.7/47.0, wind NNE at 5mph. EDIT- I see several 2"+ reports down in the New River Valley on CoCoRaHS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southmdwatcher Posted October 20, 2019 Share Posted October 20, 2019 Already seems like an overperformer, 0.39" so far, with much more incoming on radar. NWS Sterling updated forecast at 430am was for half to 3/4 inch of rain for my location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted October 20, 2019 Share Posted October 20, 2019 Fringed.... .12" so far. Good excuse to do nothing today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted October 20, 2019 Share Posted October 20, 2019 Well the NAM schooled the GFS and Euro from a couple days out. Lesson learned for the winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted October 20, 2019 Share Posted October 20, 2019 At 0.95” for the event so far and it is pouring down here around Fredericksburg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 20, 2019 Share Posted October 20, 2019 Rain. Very wet rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted October 20, 2019 Share Posted October 20, 2019 NAM may actually fail if that heavy rain keeps struggling to advance northeast. It approaches DC and then starts to dissipate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrlg1181 Posted October 20, 2019 Share Posted October 20, 2019 1.8 down here near Afton edge of Waynesboro.... Very wet week...Much needed...hate seeing creeks and small rivers coming out the mts basically dry.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southmdwatcher Posted October 20, 2019 Share Posted October 20, 2019 0.46" since 8am and 0.85" total so far. Moderate rain continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 20, 2019 Share Posted October 20, 2019 On 10/20/2019 at 1:44 PM, losetoa6 said: .10" 50 with drizzle occasionally light rain. Guidance has been hinting at either drier air or some sort of subsidence hindering totals north of i70 especially and radar trends agree imo. 3k is way overdone for Baltimore north me thinks. Hrrr looks more realistic. Expand Yeah I mentioned this yesterday. This storm is moving into a wall of HP, so it will be a struggle the further north it gets. GFS has been pretty consistent with depicting this. Steady moderate rain here, and I doubt I will see any real heavy rain. Hopefully several hours of light to moderate, which is exactly what is needed to dent the drought and get moisture deeper into the soil. eta- looks like the radar is filling in nicely over your area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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