mattie g Posted October 18, 2019 Share Posted October 18, 2019 On 10/18/2019 at 5:12 PM, WinterWxLuvr said: Not to mention that the high/low avg method of calculating a daily mean temp is wacked in the first place. Especially so now that we have all this technology available and could easily calculate a one min avg with 1440 data points every day. Expand I've felt this way for a long time. It makes no sense that it's being calculated that way now, but perhaps there's an unwillingness to change given that's the way it's always been done(?). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adelphi_sky Posted October 18, 2019 Share Posted October 18, 2019 So, I get 1.7 inches of rain this week while I was on a cruise to Bermuda. So, I still haven't experienced any rain personally in over a month. Perhaps the ocean is where I need to be for it to rain again. Anyone want to finance another cruise for me so we can get some more rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 18, 2019 Share Posted October 18, 2019 12z Euro looks pretty dry from about DC points N and NE, similar to the GFS. Looks like some influence from high pressure to the north- subsidence/somewhat drier air. Storm only gains so much latitude then hits a wall and slides off the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 18, 2019 Share Posted October 18, 2019 18z NAM looks as juicy as this NE Hazy IPA I am polishing off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted October 18, 2019 Share Posted October 18, 2019 On 10/18/2019 at 8:33 PM, C.A.P.E. said: 18z NAM looks as juicy as this NE Hazy IPA I am polishing off. Expand I was just going to say the nam looks awesome. These north trends remind me of 09-10. Heading to Flying Dog now. First up will be the oyster stout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 18, 2019 Share Posted October 18, 2019 On 10/18/2019 at 8:39 PM, nw baltimore wx said: I was just going to say the nam looks awesome. These north trends remind me of 09-10. Heading to Flying Dog now. First up will be the oyster stout. Expand I need to get there. My first happy hour beer today was their coffee porter- Kujo- which originally was an imperial stout. I loved that beer. Was kinda pissed when they stopped making it. The porter is pretty good, but not even close to the Kujo stout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted October 18, 2019 Share Posted October 18, 2019 On 10/18/2019 at 8:44 PM, C.A.P.E. said: I need to get there. My first happy hour beer today was their coffee porter- Kujo- which originally was an imperial stout. I loved that beer. Was kinda pissed when they stopped making it. The porter is pretty good, but not even close to the Kujo stout. Expand They’ve got at least a 12 pack of the Kujo here to go. Let me know if you want me to it pick it up for you and meet on Kent Island next week. It’s $1.67 a bottle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted October 18, 2019 Share Posted October 18, 2019 Lol. Daaaaammmmnnnnnn. They took off the oyster stout off the taps this evening for the Kujo. I’m having that on nitro. Also, will move this conversation to banter from here forward Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 18, 2019 Share Posted October 18, 2019 On 10/18/2019 at 9:08 PM, nw baltimore wx said: They’ve got at least a 12 pack of the Kujo here to go. Let me know if you want me to it pick it up for you and meet on Kent Island next week. It’s $1.67 a bottle Expand It's the Porter though, right? I can get that here. I would kill for the Kujo Imperial Stout lol. That is defunct though I think. Either way, Kent Island sounds good. I will be there next Thursday for a blood drive. They always tell you to drink plenty of fluids after you donate. Less blood, less alcohol required. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted October 18, 2019 Share Posted October 18, 2019 Dews here are in the mid - upper 30s, so I might get some frost tonight. We do good with radiational cooling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 18, 2019 Share Posted October 18, 2019 On 10/18/2019 at 10:00 PM, JakkelWx said: Dews here are in the mid - upper 30s, so I might get some frost tonight. We do good with radiational cooling. Expand Yes our area does often "overperform" in that area. 36-37 is probably the lowest we go tonight, so maybe some scattered areas of slushy frost lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 18, 2019 Share Posted October 18, 2019 From Mount Holly- Our region should be on the northwestern edge of the clouds and the precipitation associated with the system from late Saturday night into Sunday. We will continue to mention a chance of rain for northeastern Maryland, Delaware and southern New Jersey. While the NAM has a track closer to the shore, the skill of the NAM is limited at that range, so have gone with a non-NAM blend through this period. Consequently, do not expect any significant wind concerns for our land zones with Nestor. lol poor NAM gets no respect . Usually deservedly so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 18, 2019 Share Posted October 18, 2019 18z gfs as rainy as it’s yet been for Sunday. 0.5” contour just south of DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 19, 2019 Share Posted October 19, 2019 On 10/18/2019 at 11:11 PM, WxUSAF said: 18z gfs as rainy as it’s yet been for Sunday. 0.5” contour just south of DC. Expand Yeah it sure is. Almost NAM like. Gets my yard on the half inch line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted October 19, 2019 Author Share Posted October 19, 2019 On 10/19/2019 at 12:58 AM, C.A.P.E. said: Yeah it sure is. Almost NAM like. Gets my yard on the half inch line. Expand 0z run..... NAM'd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted October 19, 2019 Share Posted October 19, 2019 On 10/19/2019 at 2:17 AM, George BM said: 0z run..... NAM'd. Expand Yep. Coming here to say the same... 2+ inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted October 19, 2019 Share Posted October 19, 2019 On 10/18/2019 at 5:06 PM, losetoa6 said: The old Srefs which are now part of the new HREFs look juicy thru 48 . I think that some of the old arw , nmm sref members and now Hrrr, nam nest and I believe the Gfs to a certain extent and some others are included in the bundle but I could be wrong. Expand Sorry to be "that guy", but yeah, you're wrong. The SREF and HREF are independent systems. The SREF is 13 ARW and 13 NMMB runs, all at 16 km. The HREF is simply aggregating existing high-resolution (~3 km) model runs (NAM nest, and the Hi-Res Windows NMMB, ARW, and ARW2) into means and probabilities. The HRRR will be included in the HREF computations starting next summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 19, 2019 Share Posted October 19, 2019 On 10/19/2019 at 2:17 AM, George BM said: 0z run..... NAM'd. Expand Quite a crushing... 2"+ for many 00z 3km NAM is pretty good too... over an inch for many Precip comes in hot and heavy around dawn Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 19, 2019 Share Posted October 19, 2019 On 10/19/2019 at 3:20 AM, yoda said: Quite a crushing... 2"+ for many 00z 3km NAM is pretty good too... over an inch for many Precip comes in hot and heavy around dawn Sunday Expand 00z CMC was a move SE by about 75 miles for Sunday... around 0.5" QPF now for just south of EZF into S MD... DCA and BWI near 0.15" total 00z GFS also a SE move compared to 18z... 0.5" line barely into S MD... barely any precip (0.15") back into i95 corridor and the metros Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 19, 2019 Share Posted October 19, 2019 0z Euro run is much wetter for the I-95 corridor and points east than 12z. 0.5" for DC, 0.6" for Dover. Over an inch for SBY. Still pretty dry NW of Baltimore. Only about a tenth for Westminster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 19, 2019 Share Posted October 19, 2019 I’m up in sykesville for a baseball game already and plenty of frost here. Low of 40 at home. Meh. edit... down to 39 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 19, 2019 Share Posted October 19, 2019 37 here this morning. Probably a degree or 2 lower out in the open areas, so there might be some scattered frost. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 19, 2019 Share Posted October 19, 2019 Looking through all the latest guidance, seems a pretty good bet at least the southern two-thirds of the region weill see some decent rain tomorrow. My forecast is for a half inch, and looks like an inch or more down towards the beaches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted October 19, 2019 Share Posted October 19, 2019 First frost. A little bit on the top of the car, and some on my porch roof as well as some patchy areas on the grass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted October 19, 2019 Share Posted October 19, 2019 33f. Solid frost on the cars and roofs, patchy frost on the ground. Wonderful morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted October 19, 2019 Share Posted October 19, 2019 KOKV with several obs of 32 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 19, 2019 Share Posted October 19, 2019 Love the look and feel of mornings like this. Verifies that our never ending summer is over, and winter is on the way. Quite a bit of frost on the fields. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted October 19, 2019 Share Posted October 19, 2019 36 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted October 19, 2019 Share Posted October 19, 2019 1st frost of year, and a pretty heavy one at that. JUST stayed above freezing though, 32.7 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted October 19, 2019 Share Posted October 19, 2019 On 10/19/2019 at 12:14 PM, wxdude64 said: 1st frost of year, and a pretty heavy one at that. JUST stayed above freezing though, 32.7 degrees. Expand Pretty much the exact same obs here in the creek valley.... Tomatoes and peppers just kept producing pretty well this year....those day are over now. On to winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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