mappy Posted October 14, 2019 Share Posted October 14, 2019 43, 39 for lows this weekend. foggy this morning, 47. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted October 14, 2019 Share Posted October 14, 2019 Pretty impressive bump up from the WPC , I LOVE IT...... new grass will be partying . hey @C.A.P.E.can you believe it, been waiting ages for an event like this. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted October 14, 2019 Share Posted October 14, 2019 Will be interesting to watch the trends in this one as practice for this winter... Will we get dry slotted as some models suggest or will the coastal transfer occur far enough South for us to get into the action. I'm going with dry slot... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter Wizard Posted October 14, 2019 Share Posted October 14, 2019 1 hour ago, peribonca said: Will be interesting to watch the trends in this one as practice for this winter... Will we get dry slotted as some models suggest or will the coastal transfer occur far enough South for us to get into the action. I'm going with dry slot... Essentially a Miller B. The latest GFS has the primary vort holding strong all the way to Ontario before fully transferring off the coast of Mass. We all get some rain from the initial low but re-development is way, way too late for us to get in on the good stuff. The Euro, on the other hand was much closer to rainier solution as it had an earlier transfer (DE coast) and stronger secondary low, which brought the deluge into PHL and even far northeastern MD. Will be interesting to see the trends at 12z. I do wonder if the GFS is being too progressive, especially since the 6z GEFS re-developed the secondary farther south and west than the operational. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 14, 2019 Share Posted October 14, 2019 12z gfs back to the split scenario for Wednesday. Seems to be bouncing back and forth almost every run. Ggem very wet, particularly for 95 and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 14, 2019 Share Posted October 14, 2019 2 hours ago, WxUSAF said: 12z gfs back to the split scenario for Wednesday. Seems to be bouncing back and forth almost every run. Ggem very wet, particularly for 95 and east. 12z Euro looks similar. 1.3" for BWI and about 0.9" for DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 14, 2019 Share Posted October 14, 2019 7 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: 12z Euro looks similar. 1.3" for BWI and about 0.9" for DC. Comes fast and furious too. All that in about 4-6 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 14, 2019 Share Posted October 14, 2019 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: Comes fast and furious too. All that in about 4-6 hours. Yeah it looks to be a quick hitter for our region. Lets hope it packs a punch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter Wizard Posted October 14, 2019 Share Posted October 14, 2019 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: Comes fast and furious too. All that in about 4-6 hours. Looks like it's all from the primary low, especially N and W of DC. As soon as the transfer occurs, precip shuts off rapidly from W to E. Huge dry slot through central PA and NW Virginia. Let's hope this storm isn't a sign of things to come in the winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted October 14, 2019 Share Posted October 14, 2019 sounds like winter discussion up in here. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted October 14, 2019 Share Posted October 14, 2019 2 minutes ago, mappy said: sounds like winter discussion up in here. Just practice! Like preseason NFL games 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted October 14, 2019 Share Posted October 14, 2019 1 hour ago, Winter Wizard said: Looks like it's all from the primary low, especially N and W of DC. As soon as the transfer occurs, precip shuts off rapidly from W to E. Huge dry slot through central PA and NW Virginia. Let's hope this storm isn't a sign of things to come in the winter. If this is a sign that this winter could bring 0.9” of QPF In 4-6 hours from a transferring/bombing Miller B, then I’ll quietly accept what’s given and quickly shut the door behind me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted October 14, 2019 Share Posted October 14, 2019 This feels very familiar! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 14, 2019 Share Posted October 14, 2019 18z NAM is a more typical Miller B ole for us. Sprinkles for DC/Baltimore. C'mon Euro! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 14, 2019 Share Posted October 14, 2019 Mount Holly's thoughts on the model discrepancies- The biggest uncertainty (as usual) is with QPF, with the GFS much drier than the ECMWF/NAM (roughly middle of the road), and the CMC much wetter. This is clearly tied to how close the newly developing low tracks to the coast, with the CMC nearest the CWA and the GFS/NAM much farther offshore. The ECMWF is well between the two extremes and agrees with ensemble means as well. Given these factors, used a blend of model QPF for the Wednesday/Wednesday night forecast as well, but with slightly more weight to the ECMWF and NAM. The result is widespread 1-2 inch totals (highest amounts north and east). Notably, the GFS features totals about 50-75 percent of these values, with the CMC in the range of 2-4+ inches. (In other words, large uncertainty remains.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 14, 2019 Share Posted October 14, 2019 Forecast here is for 0.75 to 1" for Wed. I would be totally happy with that outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 14, 2019 Share Posted October 14, 2019 1 hour ago, WxUSAF said: 18z NAM is a more typical Miller B ole for us. Sprinkles for DC/Baltimore. C'mon Euro! GFS wetter again, around 0.5” for the metro areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted October 14, 2019 Share Posted October 14, 2019 Looks like first real rainfall for most of us folks here and in parts of the NE subforum. Cacti have been growing since August here and the mayan sacrifices to the rain gods have seldom worked thus far. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted October 14, 2019 Author Share Posted October 14, 2019 Has anyone else noticed a pinkish tinge to the western sky in the twilight after sunset? I've been noticing it for the past couple of weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted October 14, 2019 Share Posted October 14, 2019 5 minutes ago, George BM said: Has anyone else noticed a pinkish tinge to the western sky in the twilight after sunset? I've been noticing it for the past couple of weeks. https://spaceweatherarchive.com/2019/08/27/why-are-sunsets-turning-purple/ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 Feeling a lot better about the chances of healthy rainfall totals on Wednesday after seeing the 00z NAM runs. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 Solid overnight runs. GFS still the holdout but all the rest onboard for a healthy rain. Euro is 1.5” for MBY! It’s happening? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 20 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Solid overnight runs. GFS still the holdout but all the rest onboard for a healthy rain. Euro is 1.5” for MBY! It’s happening? Over the last 24 hours, each run of the gfs has gotten better for rainfall along the corridor, so hopefully it will be more in line with the euro later today. I'll take anything, but if I can eek out an inch or more of precip, I'd be thrilled. There also looks like another decent chance of another soaking next week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 30 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said: Over the last 24 hours, each run of the gfs has gotten better for rainfall along the corridor, so hopefully it will be more in line with the euro later today. I'll take anything, but if I can eek out an inch or more of precip, I'd be thrilled. There also looks like another decent chance of another soaking next week. Almost seems with tomorrow's event we might turn the corner, dare I say. Day 4 to 5 Wow, to day 6 and 7 , system and moisture look to move NE towards us day at 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 15 hours ago, losetoa6 said: Just bored to death tracking partly cloudy and 65 in our yards and hearing about the drought...I mean (CAPE's drought lol).Long range is lookin fairly active too. works for me, its been hella boring lately (at least in terms of discussion). Droughts don't do it for me lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 39 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said: Over the last 24 hours, each run of the gfs has gotten better for rainfall along the corridor, so hopefully it will be more in line with the euro later today. I'll take anything, but if I can eek out an inch or more of precip, I'd be thrilled. There also looks like another decent chance of another soaking next week. Yeah, next week looking good for now as well with a similar sort of storm/storms. BWI is running a ~6" deficit on the year, which is a pretty big hole to climb out of, but maybe possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 Don't worry about getting rain next week, I am on vacation and planned on cutting firewood for the winter (16 dead trees standing, 75% ash), so rain is basically guaranteed!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted October 15, 2019 Author Share Posted October 15, 2019 2 minutes ago, wxdude64 said: Don't worry about getting rain next week, I am on vacation and planned on cutting firewood for the winter (16 dead trees standing, 75% ash), so rain is basically guaranteed!! Thanks so much for your generous sacrifice. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 First mention of snow for the season for my P&C in Deep Creek! Wednesday Night Rain showers likely before 4am, then rain and snow showers likely. Cloudy, with a low around 37. Breezy, with a west wind 20 to 23 mph, with gusts as high as 37 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible. Thursday Snow showers likely, possibly mixed with rain before noon, then a chance of rain showers. Cloudy, with a high near 40. West wind around 18 mph, with gusts as high as 33 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 I like the way the 3km NAM runs at 00z and 06z came around to the heavy rain solution after being a very dry holdout. Nice gusty, Fall-like day in store for Thursday. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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