WxUSAF Posted October 5, 2019 Share Posted October 5, 2019 In Lancaster county PA tonight and temp down to 50. 60 back home 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted October 5, 2019 Share Posted October 5, 2019 Congrats on your cold front conditions! You guys SHOULD be in the 50s at night! Its about time! Down here in the furnace, well it wasnt too bad today. Only 93 with a dewpoint of 62!!!!!!! It felt like 79/53! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted October 5, 2019 Share Posted October 5, 2019 Down to 44 at Deep Creek. And a nats win! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted October 5, 2019 Share Posted October 5, 2019 42F and depth of stars not often seen. Up early to sit on the patio and enjoy coffee beside the firepit. Feels amazing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 5, 2019 Share Posted October 5, 2019 I had a dream that I woke up to a soaking rain. I woke up to the usual desert, but at least it feels a bit like a high desert. 45. That ties the coldest low so far this fall. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 5, 2019 Share Posted October 5, 2019 This is a little interesting. The offshore low on the 0z Euro looks to back closer to the coast under the ridge to the north. Has an inverted trough look. Might be worth watching in future runs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted October 5, 2019 Share Posted October 5, 2019 37 lowest reported from KOKV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 5, 2019 Share Posted October 5, 2019 Low of 45. Very slightly below normal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted October 5, 2019 Share Posted October 5, 2019 37 at Deep Creek. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 5, 2019 Share Posted October 5, 2019 33 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Plenty of support from the Eps . Many members including the OP really slow the frontal progression which allows that west Atlantic energy to back in here or a wave to ride up the coast ....and even some with an inv trough look as u mentioned. Eps qpf made a decent bump up too. Latest 6z Gfs kind of leaning in this direction now as well Yeah 6z GFS gets a little precip over eastern areas verbatim. The most likely scenario is that next front will simply shunt the low out, but definitely some uncertainty and some other possibilities looking at the means. It will mostly come down to timing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted October 5, 2019 Share Posted October 5, 2019 18 hours ago, losetoa6 said: 69/51 with a nice north breeze . It really is a perfect day Yesterday was awesome. Crisp 41 for a low here this morning. Going to be a beautiful fall day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted October 5, 2019 Share Posted October 5, 2019 37 for a low this morning...actually a little frost on the edges of the roof. Today looks stellar... maybe one last dinner on the campfire tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted October 5, 2019 Share Posted October 5, 2019 2 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said: This is a little interesting. The offshore low on the 0z Euro looks to back closer to the coast under the ridge to the north. Has an inverted trough look. Might be worth watching in future runs. Anyone want to use my thread? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 5, 2019 Share Posted October 5, 2019 2 minutes ago, mattie g said: Anyone want to use my thread? I really should have posted it there. My bad. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted October 5, 2019 Share Posted October 5, 2019 58 nearing noon. Perfect! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 5, 2019 Share Posted October 5, 2019 Early week rain chances continue to look pretty pathetic for I-95 and points east on the 12z NAM and GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 5, 2019 Share Posted October 5, 2019 Both CMC and Gfs hint at stalling precip over the area and keep it going Tuesday. Let’s hope that trend continues. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 5, 2019 Share Posted October 5, 2019 15 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: ^ CMC and Gfs bumped qpf up . Both over 1 inch in spots near i95 Yeah with a very strong shortwave around midweek, which is new. When I made that post the run was only out to hour 78, and there is virtually nothing with the actual front east of I-95, which is quite a change from a couple runs ago.. Now I can monitor the "next threat' and watch it dwindle away to nothing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 5, 2019 Share Posted October 5, 2019 Pretty strong and well placed little shortwave on the 12z run. Was there at 0z, but weaker and less defined, and nothing happening at the surface. Lets see how that evolves in future runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 5, 2019 Share Posted October 5, 2019 Perfect early Oct day. 61 at 4pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 5, 2019 Share Posted October 5, 2019 18z 12km NAM looks better for Mon into Tuesday for eastern areas- mostly just to my SE, but better overall than the 12z run. Still looks good for west of I-95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 5, 2019 Share Posted October 5, 2019 18z GFS is a better version of 12z. Thorough soaking for the region from Tuesday to Thursday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted October 6, 2019 Share Posted October 6, 2019 Perfect early-fall day. Plenty warm in the sun, but chilly in the shade and when the wind blew. Maybe it’s the comfy weather, but for some reason, I feel like I could sleep for days... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted October 6, 2019 Share Posted October 6, 2019 First sub 60 degree high here! Currently 54.0/52.5, high was 58.1 and low was 49.3. This makes up about 5% for the disastrous heat from Wednesday and Thursday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 6, 2019 Share Posted October 6, 2019 10 hours ago, losetoa6 said: .30" today. I still can't believe I missed half the Ravens game to work today cause I really thought it would be mostly dry out ...all my tools ,clothes got pretty wet . Boy was I wrong . ..lol. Should of stayed home . I bet tomorrow is partly cloudy and dry . Tomorrow will probably be the usual fail for much of the region. Your area may do ok, but places further east will be relying on that shortwave and coastal low track for some decent rain, and that is a precarious setup with high bust potential. Plus drought begets drought, and all that crap lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 7, 2019 Share Posted October 7, 2019 15 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Threat #2 with the ull still looks up in the air as far as impacts in our region but Latest Euro verbatim throws back heavy qpf from Baltimore on northeast midweek . Does it ever. That’s a big change, Euro didn’t want much to do with that. Of course GFS has backed off that idea. Id just like to get some decent rain tonight. Looks really dicey for the I95 corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 7, 2019 Share Posted October 7, 2019 10 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Threat #2 with the ull still looks up in the air as far as impacts in our region but Latest Euro verbatim throws back heavy qpf from Baltimore on northeast midweek . The forcing with the front continues to look weaker as it moves east. Precip breaks up and becomes scattered on the guidance. I have very little confidence in that shortwave/coastal low congealing just right to produce significant rain outside of the immediate coast, and probably mostly NE of our area. The next few days wont even put a ding dent in the drought here, and I would be surprised if my yard gets more than a tenth. Probably some drizzle lol. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 7, 2019 Share Posted October 7, 2019 It’s amazing how the rain avoids my yard in the meso models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted October 7, 2019 Share Posted October 7, 2019 Ventrice ECM prediction ......seems warm always wins out, however, a significant averaged -SOI in Sept yields a very warm October . So there you go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 7, 2019 Share Posted October 7, 2019 6 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Threat 2 ull closer to the coast and stronger at 12z on Euro . Definitely interesting to see how it pans out for us. Many areas esp 95 and east do decent from the ull this run ...qpf distribution a little further west this run includes DC area this time . @C.A.P.E.s yard does real well Euro is only model to show this it seems, but it's really bullish. Would be a big bust for the Euro to miss this bad inside of 48 hours. I hope it's right. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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