George BM Posted October 1, 2019 Share Posted October 1, 2019 Falling... well you get the point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 1, 2019 Share Posted October 1, 2019 If you want to go out there on the 06z GFS... suggestion is there for highs around 60 from October 12th and on to the end of the run. This is at or around DCA... so highs are in the 50s and even some upper 40s north and west of DCA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted October 1, 2019 Share Posted October 1, 2019 4 hours ago, losetoa6 said: I'll take what the Gfs and nam are serving for Thurs ...they both keep the heat confined to Va . Showing upper 50s to lower 70s for most of central Md . Euro has also bumped cooler with 70s most areas Thursday. I take . Lol ..overdone a smidge I'm sure but... 6z nam for Thurs 18z Yeah, the models really caught on to the back door possibilities yesterday. Looks like Wednesday will be the last day of "summer" from DC N&E. Richmond has to wait one more day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted October 1, 2019 Share Posted October 1, 2019 46 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: Yeah, the models really caught on to the back door possibilities yesterday. Looks like Wednesday will be the last day of "summer" from DC N&E. Richmond has to wait one more day. Gonna be a fascinating temperature forecast for Thursday for sure. It's pretty certain that Baltimore and points northeast will be cool, but I don't think it's as certain for DC metro. 12z NAM has low 90s in northern VA, with the gradient right along the Potomac. NAM nest has the gradient ever so slightly to the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prestige Worldwide Posted October 1, 2019 Share Posted October 1, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted October 1, 2019 Share Posted October 1, 2019 4 hours ago, Prestige Worldwide said: Seems that evolution would support snowfall over large portions of Canada. Here is the EPS for fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 1, 2019 Share Posted October 1, 2019 Yay for tomorrow... the CF can't come soon enough .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Surface high pressure will shift further southward on Wednesday as a cold moves southward from the eastern Great Lakes and New England. By the evening hours, the front will likely be positioned from Ohio eastward to Pennsylvania and to New Jersey coastline. Hot temperatures are expected across the area, especially with downsloping southwesterly to westerly flow. Daily record high temperatures are likely, with monthly October records possibly in jeopardy. 925mb temperatures are modeled to be around 26-27C, which supports widespread highs in the 90s, with low 90s west of the Blue Ridge, and mid to perhaps upper 90s east, especially in the Virginia piedmont. The front will move southward and likely reach into northeast Maryland Wednesday night. At the same time, an area of low pressure will move eastward out of the Ohio Valley with the main cold frontal push still hanging back in IN/IL. Mainly dry conditions are expected Wednesday night, although some light shower activity is possible along the frontal boundary near the PA border. Lows Wednesday night will range through the 60s to around 70F. Low pressure will push northeastward through OH and into PA/NY by late Thursday, with the main frontal boundary approaching the Appalachians late in the day. However, all eyes will be on the backdoor-esque front that will likely be bisecting the area during the day, having a large impact on temperature outcome. General model consensus places the front roughly from MRB-IAD- NYG, but its possible this will end up further southwest or further northeast. Highs will be in the 90s south/west of this boundary, with low-mid 70s north/east. Widespread clouds and some shower activity is possible on the cool side of the boundary, and some shower/thunderstorm activity is possible as the cold front moves towards the area in the evening. The cold front will clear the region Thursday night with significant cool and dry air advection. Lows by Friday morning will fall into the 50s/60s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 1, 2019 Share Posted October 1, 2019 Everybody should be breaking records easily tomorrow... possibly even the all time record... .CLIMATE... Significant record highs are possible on Wednesday. Here are the records for October 2nd and for the entire month. Site Oct 2 record All-time October record DCA 89 in 1986 96 on 10/5/1941 BWI 89 in 1986 97 on 10/5/1941 IAD 89 in 1986 94 on 10/9/2007 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted October 1, 2019 Share Posted October 1, 2019 Heat records tomorrow in this area are probably safe. Record for the date at Martinsburg is 98 from 1927; one of 3 consecutive high temp records from that year (92, 98, 92 on 10/1-3/1927). That 98 ties the hottest October reading at MRB with 10/6/1941, the first of 3 consecutive records from that year that still stand; 98, 93, 97 on 10/6-8/1941. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 1, 2019 Share Posted October 1, 2019 7 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Happy hour Gfs follows suit with a cutoff low and crushes many areas day 7 -8. Man if we could get this look under 100 hours . It will surely evaporate, like all the other chances for sig rain recently. Drought begets drought. Atmospheric memory. Or some shiit like that 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 1, 2019 Share Posted October 1, 2019 28 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Happy hour Gfs follows suit with a cutoff low and crushes many areas day 7 -8. Man if we could get this look under 100 hours . Lol 6”+ of rain!! I’ll take the under Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 1, 2019 Share Posted October 1, 2019 6 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Lol 6”+ of rain!! I’ll take the under I would happily take 0.6". I will expect something on the order of 0.06". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted October 1, 2019 Share Posted October 1, 2019 The big ones are sniffed out early... 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted October 2, 2019 Share Posted October 2, 2019 2 hours ago, WxUSAF said: Lol 6”+ of rain!! I’ll take the under Midnight high potentials on Thurs or Friday depending on where the backside stalls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 2, 2019 Share Posted October 2, 2019 9 hours ago, MN Transplant said: Midnight high potentials on Thurs or Friday depending on where the backside stalls. Might get a 2-fer! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted October 2, 2019 Share Posted October 2, 2019 14 hours ago, losetoa6 said: Happy hour Gfs follows suit with a cutoff low and crushes many areas day 7 -8. Man if we could get this look 2-3 months from now . Fixed it for you. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted October 2, 2019 Share Posted October 2, 2019 Here's the daily and monthly records at the airports- all are in play today. BWI: Daily 89; Monthly 97 DCA: Daily 89; Monthly 96 IAD: Daily 89; Monthly 94 RIC: Daily 91; Monthly 99 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 2, 2019 Share Posted October 2, 2019 IAD and BWI already broke their records. DCA probably will struggle because of the asinine ASOS placement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted October 2, 2019 Share Posted October 2, 2019 89.9 at home. IAD at 91 already is mind-boggling. As EJ says, stupid river. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted October 2, 2019 Share Posted October 2, 2019 LOL DCA is only 83 while BWI is 92 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 2, 2019 Share Posted October 2, 2019 There goes the flip to the west winds at DCA and suddenly the record is smashed. Lets juts go for 100 while we're at it..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted October 2, 2019 Share Posted October 2, 2019 18 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: 12:55 obs 93 Dca 95 Bwi I have 96 for DCA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted October 2, 2019 Share Posted October 2, 2019 2 minutes ago, PrinceFrederickWx said: I have 96 for DCA. 97 showing up on the latest 5 min observation - good enough for a new October high temp record. 96 ties the previous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted October 2, 2019 Share Posted October 2, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted October 2, 2019 Share Posted October 2, 2019 10 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: I just looked again and yep...96. Correct that^.97 lol. I used to have the 5 min obs link but cant find it I didn't know there was a 5 minute obs link- if anyone has that can you send it to me? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 2, 2019 Share Posted October 2, 2019 31 minutes ago, wawarriors4 said: And there's still a few more hours of heating to go... but the clouds may deny much more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 2, 2019 Share Posted October 2, 2019 19 minutes ago, PrinceFrederickWx said: I didn't know there was a 5 minute obs link- if anyone has that can you send it to me? I don't know if KDCA or KBWI have that... but I know KIAD does Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted October 2, 2019 Share Posted October 2, 2019 Only 90 I feel robbed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted October 2, 2019 Share Posted October 2, 2019 36 minutes ago, PrinceFrederickWx said: I didn't know there was a 5 minute obs link- if anyone has that can you send it to me? https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/timeseries.php?sid=KDCA&num=72&banner=NONE&hfmetars=1 just change the 4-letter identifier for other sites 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 2, 2019 Share Posted October 2, 2019 Just now, purduewx80 said: https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/timeseries.php?sid=KDCA&num=72&banner=NONE&hfmetars=1 just change the 4-letter identifier for other sites Thanks for the link... for some reason I only thought KIAD did that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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