Fall 2019 New England Banter and Disco

[Ginx snewx]

26 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

The more interesting question is at what point do individuals start to care.  

50 years, 80 years, 200 years, 500 years?  How selfish are we going to be?  If it won’t impact my lifetime, how much do I care?

Humans by nature are very selfish but that’s also a survival technique.  I need to gather as many resources as possible and I will not share anything with those other humans who are just sitting around the campfire while I bust my ass hunting sabertooth tigers.  

That selfish self-preservation continues to this day despite most having all the resources they need to live comfortably.  But you can always live more comfortably, right?  

I would love to see all the celebrities and hypocrite do gooders lead the way by selling their 20k ft mansions, yachts and jets. Refrain from traveling by airplane as much as possible.  Talking a big game seems to be the real answer.  The rest of us everyday do our part. One hypocrit does more damage in 1 day than 10000 of us mere mortals. Tired of being preached to by elites. You really care pony the f up

[Typhoon Tip]

57 minutes ago, weathafella said:

It’s ironic that bears, big cats, bulls, and other big animals scare people a lot more world wide vs tiny mosquitoes which can cause malaria and other diseases...

Not that you asked ... but that smacks as "primal" more so than "ironic" to me  - but I think I get what meant in your context there. 

It is probable that human beings walk along with more in the way of instincts whether the conceit of modernism and/or species-centric egoism allow us to know or perceive we do.  That, and...we're 'in-the-weeds,' so we may not be inclined to think of it that way.  

But, "monsters in the closet" or "under the bed"  ?  These are in-born in the nature of human beings.  Fearing the dark cave, keeps individuals from going near the dark cave, and they don't suffer the consequence bear or big cat ... although I'm not sure what to do with "bulls" in this but I guess.  Anyway, so, they pass that trait on and neither do their kids... or their kid's kids...and on and so on. And there we have it. Instinct. And as children are closer to the primal mid brain ... we've gone and built bedrooms with built-in dark caves.. Ha!  ..kinda funny when you think about it ... 

 

[Whineminster]

Climate Change isn't our problem, it's the next generations. Let them figure it out. We had to figure out all the mistakes from our forefathers.....dumping chemicals and heavy metals in waterways, smog, CFCs, colonialism, the terrible treatment of Indians that we're still trying to correct.   

At some point the free market will dictate that alternative energy will take over. 

[tamarack]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yep, there's a ton of variables...including the birds themselves like I mentioned. You can't get it unless a mosquito bites an infected bird first and then bites you (hence why the chances are astronomically low to begin with)....but all that stuff from land use, to how CC affects precip on a regional scale, to how it affects birds all plays a role.

It's why there should always be caution in attribution studies that have 2nd and 3rd order layered impacts. Something like straight temperature/heat waves is easy, but other stuff like EEE is really complicated. Hell, even actual weather like hurricanes is very complicated too. Can you imagine the fever pitch of articles and media talking about attribution if we got another 1938-1955 period for tropical cyclones on the east coast?

Couple weeks ago there were big headlines of "30 Billion Fewer Birds", I think as compared to 30 years ago.  Unfortunately, but typical of MSM, there was no further context.  Was it 30 billion fewer than 100 billion birds?  A trillion?  Given the vagaries of wildlife populations, a 3% decrease is a statistical blip that could result from a single nest-wrecking spring gale running through where the neotropical migrant species breed, but a 30% drop warrants serious investigating.  (IMO, the biggest factor for those species is land use in there winter ranges.)

[Typhoon Tip]

There seemed to be some disbelief or discrediting attempts in that other thread before it got evacuated of the triple e stuff, as to how/why it relates to CC and insect -related pathology. 

Yes, there is a causal link being presently scienced. It was report in the Fourth IPCC ..which I won't get into politicizing and fear mongering/paranoid "GRETA" this and whatever people need to do that - I don't care what you do beyond, I'm just exposing the information is there. 

 

Table 1  ( c/o NCBI )

Emerging and forecasted effects of climate change/global warming on infectious diseases and other human health conditions in the world

Direct effect on other health conditions

Heat waves: Short-term increase in mortality, especially among those with cardiovascular and/or respiratory diseases, and increase in heat shock patients

Co-effect with air pollution: Increase in asthma and allergy patients

Storms and floods: Increase in morbidity and accidental death

Indirect effect on infectious diseases

Expansion of mosquito- and tick-infested areas, and increase in mosquito activity: Increase in the number of patients with mosquito-borne infectious diseases (i.e. dengue and malaria) and expansion of epidemic areas  preetty sure 'EEE' falls into this category ...  But again, this is not me - this is IPCC and is available in multiple formats/sources if one chooses to go and look

Contamination of water and foods with bacteria: Increase in the number of patients with water- and foodborne infectious diseases

Deterioration of environmental and social conditions: Increased risk of infectious diseases

[J.Spin]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

It's why there should always be caution in attribution studies that have 2nd and 3rd order layered impacts. Something like straight temperature/heat waves is easy, but other stuff like EEE is really complicated. Hell, even actual weather like hurricanes is very complicated too. Can you imagine the fever pitch of articles and media talking about attribution if we got another 1938-1955 period for tropical cyclones on the east coast?

What I find hilarious is how the climate change paranoia simply gets adapted to whatever slant people want.  Does your area have frequent drought issues?  Well, climate change is going to make it even drier.  Are floods a problem in your part of the country?  You’d better watch out, climate change will definitely make them worse.  Have a certain crop that you grow on your farm?  You’re screwed.  Climate change is going to ruin that by bringing more heat and moisture to the area.  You’ll get more rain and warmer temperatures to grow your crops, but don’t worry, they’ll grow worse than before because… reasons.  And don’t forget, despite the excess rainfall, your area is going to simultaneously be plagued with drought, so your crops won’t grow anyway.  Oh, and if there’s an organism that frequently plagues your favorite crop as a pest, you can be damned sure that whatever the climate changes into, that pest is going to go absolutely gangbusters and eat whatever crop you put it.  And you know, since it’s climate change, the modeling indicates that the pest is going to eat your house as well for good measure.

Unfortunately, climate change prediction science is a field that can easily be filled with tons of model-based hypotheses that can’t be proven or refuted on a convenient time scale.  In most fields, you make a hypothesis, run your experiment, then adjust your model accordingly and run the next experiment.  When dealing with climate change it feels like you put together a model (which of course is done with the best knowledge available, but still can’t take into account everything we don’t know about), and then the planet’s population has to sit around for 50 years, discuss the possibilities and potentially prepare for the worst, while we wait to see how accurate the modeling actually was.

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

There seemed to be some disbelief or discrediting attempts in that other thread before it got evacuated of the triple e stuff, as to how/why it relates to CC and insect -related pathology. 

Yes, there is a causal link being presently scienced. It was report in the Fourth IPCC ..which I won't get into politicizing and fear mongering/paranoid "GRETA" this and whatever people need to do that - I don't care what you do beyond, I'm just exposing the information is there. 

 

Table 1

Emerging and forecasted effects of climate change/global warming on infectious diseases and other human health conditions in the world

Direct effect on other health conditions

Heat waves: Short-term increase in mortality, especially among those with cardiovascular and/or respiratory diseases, and increase in heat shock patients

Co-effect with air pollution: Increase in asthma and allergy patients

Storms and floods: Increase in morbidity and accidental death

Indirect effect on infectious diseases

Expansion of mosquito- and tick-infested areas, and increase in mosquito activity: Increase in the number of patients with mosquito-borne infectious diseases (i.e. dengue and malaria) and expansion of epidemic areas  preetty sure 'EEE' falls into this category ...  But again, this is not me - this is IPCC and is available in multiple formats/sources if one chooses to go and look

Contamination of water and foods with bacteria: Increase in the number of patients with water- and foodborne infectious diseases

Deterioration of environmental and social conditions: Increased risk of infectious diseases

EEE is a little more complicated than something like malaria because a mosquito has to bite an infected bird first and the disease is not transmitted from person to person after infection like Zika or malaria is. So the sole method of the virus spreading is dependent on an additional non-human carrier which is more likely to be affected by CC than humans themselves are.

[powderfreak]

18 minutes ago, Whineminster said:

Climate Change isn't our problem, it's the next generations. Let them figure it out. We had to figure out all the mistakes from our forefathers.....dumping chemicals and heavy metals in waterways, smog, CFCs, colonialism, the terrible treatment of Indians that we're still trying to correct.   

lol that’s one way to look at it.  Not my problem.  Let my kids fix my f*ck ups.

[Spanks45]

Not familiar with the area so looking for any suggestions.... We ditched our family trip to the OBX next week and are planning on heading north next week, a couple days to Great Wolf lodge to keep the kids happy, but hoping to explore NH/Southern Maine. Weather looks chilly but nice Wednesday/Friday and will just Airbnb something once we set a destination. Kids are younger, but love hiking....Thanks!

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

EEE is a little more complicated than something like malaria because a mosquito has to bite an infected bird first and the disease is not transmitted from person to person after infection like Zika or malaria is. So the sole method of the virus spreading is dependent on an additional non-human carrier which is more likely to be affected by CC than humans themselves are.

heh not sure folks should be dinkin' around with the socratic method in this particular interpretation/case..    

Warm weather means mosquitoes means EEE ... arithmetically that is clear.  That's pretty much it.  In general, CDC/ ... IPCC etc.. rely upon the larger pantheon of sciences, "..Increase in the number of patients with mosquito-borne infectious diseases.."  

I feel pretty confident that EEE is part of that concern. 

 -even though I get it that we're in free speculation format in here.  obviously but, maybe there's a darwin award in there... run around at dusk in 70/70 October mosquitoes because EEE isn't Dengue Fever haha

[Torch Tiger]

20 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

Not familiar with the area so looking for any suggestions.... We ditched our family trip to the OBX next week and are planning on heading north next week, a couple days to Great Wolf lodge to keep the kids happy, but hoping to explore NH/Southern Maine. Weather looks chilly but nice Wednesday/Friday and will just Airbnb something once we set a destination. Kids are younger, but love hiking....Thanks!

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Hampshire_Route_112

You want to do this once during fall foliage season. May even see some snow  

[ORH_wxman]

13 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

heh not sure folks should be dinkin' around with the socratic method in this particular interpretation/case..    

Warm weather means mosquitoes means EEE ... arithmetically that is clear.  That's pretty much it.  In general, CDC/ ... IPCC etc.. rely upon the larger pantheon of sciences, "..Increase in the number of patients with mosquito-borne infectious diseases.."  

I feel pretty confident that EEE is part of that concern. 

 -even though I get it that we're in free speculation format in here.  obviously but, maybe there's a darwin award in there... run around at dusk in 70/70 October mosquitoes because EEE isn't Dengue Fever haha

Well like i said, since EEE is a little more complicated than malaria and Zika, I'm pointing out why EEE might not be as simple as more mosquitoes = more EEE cases...not that it's a huge distinction when there's the aforementioned Zika/Malaria to worry about too.

I think most see more mosquitoes as a bad thing anyway. Nobody likes them.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

8 minutes ago, Dr. Dews said:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Hampshire_Route_112

You want to do this once during fall foliage season. May even see some snow  

That could work . The great north woods is another option but they are prolly past peak next week. But plenty of moose ! 

[Ginx snewx]

Very very interesting read.

 

[ORH_wxman]

18 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Very very interesting read.

 

Interesting discussion there....and a good one. Tom was the same class as Chris (OceanStateWx) at Cornell.

[Baroclinic Zone]

2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

What a mess 

I agree.  Richmond is a hot mess.

[tamarack]

Data from CDC.  Looks like 2 "epicenters", FL/GA(VA) and MA/NY.  I wonder if neotropical migratory songbirds most commonly infected have seasonal concentrations in those 2 areas.  certainly doesn't point to a direct relationship between warming climate and EEE; one would think that a south-to-north gradient would be more logical.  Or as Will has noted, it's more complex than a simple insect/human interaction.  And although the disease nasty - has been about 40% fatal (30 of 72) in that data set, how panicky should we be over 7 cases/year?  (Top year in that data was 2010, with 15.)

Eastern equine encephalitis virus neuroinvasive disease cases reported by state of residence, 2009–2018

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, tamarack said:

Data from CDC.  Looks like 2 "epicenters", FL/GA(VA) and MA/NY.  I wonder if neotropical migratory songbirds most commonly infected have seasonal concentrations in those 2 areas.  certainly doesn't point to a direct relationship between warming climate and EEE; one would think that a south-to-north gradient would be more logical.  Or as Will has noted, it's more complex than a simple insect/human interaction.  And although the disease nasty - has been about 40% fatal (30 of 72) in that data set, how panicky should we be over 7 cases/year?  (Top year in that data was 2010, with 15.)

Eastern equine encephalitis virus neuroinvasive disease cases reported by state of residence, 2009–2018

 

I agree the hype surrounding it is obscene compared to the risk...and I haven't been immune. We've been putting bug spray on my son every time he goes outside. But this past weekend when I did it, the thought came to me how paranoid I must look if the pre-parent version of myself looked at this....or simply the analytical half of my mind rather than the parental/instinctive side. It is almost certainly more dangerous for me to take my son with me to the grocery store in my car, and yet I do it without hesitation.

[CapturedNature]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

I agree the hype surrounding it is obscene compared to the risk...and I haven't been immune. We've been putting bug spray on my son every time he goes outside. But this past weekend when I did it, the thought came to me how paranoid I must look if the pre-parent version of myself looked at this....or simply the analytical half of my mind rather than the parental/instinctive side. It is almost certainly more dangerous for me to take my son with me to the grocery store in my car, and yet I do it without hesitation.

I've had that same thought with my son going out into the woods.  I usually put on bug spray anyway because I find the buggers annoying, especially three cornered (deer) flies.  Growing up I never wore a seat belt but when I was 16 or 18 I was required to do so.  Now I don't even think about it.  I've never gotten in an accident and statistically most people would be fine without one.  However, I do like the extra insurance.  I kind of view bug spray the same way.  It's almost useless but then there's that .0000001% chance.  Do I want to take that chance when I have something that takes a couple of seconds that mitigates it?  It also helps against ticks and our woods are crawling with them so it's an added policy.

[Cold Miser]

20 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Nice layout...much cleaner and easier on the eyes.

Yeah. Overall it's nice, especially on the phone. The wraparound of the text for long names is a bit annoying though on the PC where I am most of the day. 

[Typhoon Tip]

3 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Well like i said, since EEE is a little more complicated than malaria and Zika, I'm pointing out why EEE might not be as simple as more mosquitoes = more EEE cases...not that it's a huge distinction when there's the aforementioned Zika/Malaria to worry about too.

I think most see more mosquitoes as a bad thing anyway. Nobody likes them.

Mosquitoes/EEE are the buzz right now ( heh..see what I did there.  nyuk nyui).   Anyway, it is actually a rare infectious disease, passed along by Mosquitoes.

It's not "more complicated" than Malaria though?  I'm not admittedly certain what you mean by that... I think you might mean rarer? If so, that's true.  At least via the reading available by NCBI and CDC, they don't illustrate a transmission cycle that is more complicated -

More mosquitoes along with the host avian species moving into regions due to species migration ... these are papered btw if anyone cares to read.  Anywho, these are carrying the virus and increased probability of infection in humans ... that's not a difficult logical leap.  We can call that uncertain but ...for some of us, we're safe using the information at hand and making protective assumptions.   That part of that specific part of that discussion we'll just disagree with I guess.

We need a freeze!

 

[snowman21]

6 hours ago, Whineminster said:

Climate Change isn't our problem, it's the next generations. Let them figure it out. We had to figure out all the mistakes from our forefathers.....dumping chemicals and heavy metals in waterways, smog, CFCs, colonialism, the terrible treatment of Indians that we're still trying to correct.   

At some point the free market will dictate that alternative energy will take over. 

What free market?

[tamarack]

14 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Mosquitoes/EEE are the buzz right now ( heh..see what I did there.  nyuk nyui).   Anyway, it is actually a rare infectious disease, passed along by Mosquitoes.

It's not "more complicated" than Malaria though?  I'm not admittedly certain what you mean by that... I think you might mean rarer? If so, that's true.  At least via the reading available by NCBI and CDC, they don't illustrate a transmission cycle that is more complicated -

More mosquitoes along with the host avian species moving into regions due to species migration ... these are papered btw if anyone cares to read.  Anywho, these are carrying the virus and increased probability of infection in humans ... that's not a difficult logical leap.  We can call that uncertain but ...for some of us, we're safe using the information at hand and making protective assumptions.   That part of that specific part of that discussion we'll just disagree with I guess.

We need a freeze!

Mosquitoes give malaria to mammals, mammals give malaria to mosquitoes, and back and forth it goes. 

From Will's description, the EEE cycle is longer (correct this if it's wrong):
Mosquitoes give EEE to humans, humans give EEE to mosquitoes, mosquitoes give EEE to birds, birds give EEE to mosquitoes, mosquitoes give EEE to humans, etc. etc.
It's the italicized steps that add the complexity.

Agree with the final sentence, as I've not seen one of the little buggers since our freeze on Sept. 19.

[Cold Miser]

19 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

I agree the hype surrounding it is obscene compared to the risk...and I haven't been immune. We've been putting bug spray on my son every time he goes outside. But this past weekend when I did it, the thought came to me how paranoid I must look if the pre-parent version of myself looked at this....or simply the analytical half of my mind rather than the parental/instinctive side. It is almost certainly more dangerous for me to take my son with me to the grocery store in my car, and yet I do it without hesitation.

I am not sure if this is happening in Mass, but there have been night time practices and games for kids that have been scheduled to end before dusk, or moved to, lets say a Saturday mid morning time frame. This should get interesting as the sun keeps setting earlier and earlier if there is not a hard freeze soon. 

The paranoia train runs every hour on the hour when it comes to stuff like this.  

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

19 hours ago, Cold Miser said:

Yeah. Overall it's nice, especially on the phone. The wraparound of the text for long names is a bit annoying though on the PC where I am most of the day. 

Oh, yea. Haven’t seen it on desktop yet, that is annoying. Maybe I should just shorten my SN then. 

[dryslot]

3 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Oh, yea. Haven’t seen it on desktop yet, that is annoying. Maybe I should just shorten my SN then. 

onewayiceburg?

[HoarfrostHubb]

5 hours ago, Cold Miser said:

I am not sure if this is happening in Mass, but there have been night time practices and games for kids that have been scheduled to end before dusk, or moved to, lets say a Saturday mid morning time frame. This should get interesting as the sun keeps setting earlier and earlier if there is not a hard freeze soon. 

The paranoia train runs every hour on the hour when it comes to stuff like this.  

They have done that here depending on the town.  Our town put out a notice that our one set of fields would be closed from dusk to dawn due to EEE. 

Of course, the posted hours for the fields are dusk to dawn anyway.  Lol 

[Sugarloaf1989]

Just saw this on the news.  B-17 crash at Bradley. Thoughts and prayers with those lost.

 

https://www.cnn.com/us/live-news/world-war-ii-plane-crash-connecticut/index.html

[radarman]

We're grateful for the warm weather   Please support your local farmers, we are very lucky to have them.  

[HIPPYVALLEY]

On 10/1/2019 at 3:03 PM, STILL N OF PIKE said:

That could work . The great north woods is another option but they are prolly past peak next week. But plenty of moose knuckles!