October 2019 Weather Discussion

[Sugarloaf1989]

I see BDL got up to 48mph, but I didn't seem like it was much past 35mph here.

10/17/19 was far more impressive wind wise. My whole house shock.

Freakishly warm last night, up to 74F.

[dendrite]

Pretty meh here. Did wake up to the +RA and fropa around 330am, but I had the window open too. Down to 45F now after a high of 68.3F around 130am. Hit 28mph on the Davis, but that was before midnight with a stray warm gust. Looks like CON peaked around 38kt. Had 0.64" of rain.

[dendrite]

3 hours ago, MaineJayhawk said:

52F there currently, so it's a record tie

52.3F max at the 6z ob. I wonder if they tickled 53F before the fropa in between hourly obs. We'll see at 12z.

[dendrite]

Currently 67F at CAR and 37F in Pensacola. That's always fun.

[powderfreak]

This is nuts.  

Worst flooding since Irene, in fact might be worse in Stowe than Irene.  

Saw video from my wife’s coworker of RT 108 washed out at Topnotch.  You can’t get to the mountain from town.  

There is major flooding going on per BTV.  

[powderfreak]

Wettest October on record at BTV... beating the 101 year record from 1918 by almost 2”.  

CLIMATE... Several long-standing rainfall records have been broken. At Burlington, a new daily record rainfall for October 31st was set yesterday with 3.3" of rain, beating the old record of 1.16" on 10/31/1894. This is the second highest one day rainfall total at Burlington in the month of October (record is 4.19" 10/6/1932). We also observed the wettest October on record at Burlington, with 8.50" last month. The old October monthly rainfall record was 6.75" in 1918. &&

Will see widespread MODERATE category flooding, with localized major flooding forecast later today for the Missisquoi at East Berkshire and North Troy, as well as the Winooksi at Essex Jct. Significant street flooding will also take several hours to subside in downtown Burlington this AM. Owing to the rapidly changing nature of water levels over the next several hours, please refer to updated flood warnings/statements for the latest details.

 

[dryslot]

2 hours ago, dendrite said:

Pretty meh here. Did wake up to the +RA and fropa around 330am, but I had the window open too. Down to 45F now after a high of 68.3F around 130am. Hit 28mph on the Davis, but that was before midnight with a stray warm gust. Looks like CON peaked around 38kt. Had 0.64" of rain.

Some scattered outages here, 0.66" rainfall, We did gust to 41.2°F, Was 63/62 at 4 am pre fropa and now down to 50/35.

[dendrite]

Parents will be mad now that ToT will be in cold temps tomorrow night. 

[Hazey]

Wow at the temps. 67/62. Feels like spring. Won’t likely see these temperatures again til Christmas Eve/day

[wxeyeNH]

44.7 down from 67F   .75" rain total.  Peak wind so far 38mph from the south.  I'm sure there are 40plus gusts occuring but my oak's are doing a good job of keeping strongest NW winds away although Im having frequent 30-35mph NW winds

Edit  10am  Gust to 47mph NH

[tamarack]

Did not check the max-min, but I'm confident that it was milder at 5:30 this morning than the 62° max for all of October.  Was 61 at 9 last evening, and 10/31 was +13, only double digit AN of the month.  More October data:

Avg. max:  54.3   -0.9    Highest was 62 on the 13th; only 10/2009's max of 61 was more modest.  (My earlier post of 64 on 10/21 was erroneous.)  Low max was 39 on 10/27.
Avg. Min:  35.3   +0.7   Lowest was 23 on 10/20 and 3 other days touched 24.  Mildest min was 50 on the 7th.
Month mean was 44.8, Just 0.1 BN and the month closest to the 22-year average.

Precip:  7.76" That's 2.04" AN and boosts the month avg to 5.72",easily the wettest.   Nearly 3/4 came in the 2nd half.  Largest event was 2.23" on 10/23.

Observed some tiny snow grains at my 9 PM obs time on 10/25, despite temps 41-42.  No other traces.

[snowman21]

3 hours ago, dendrite said:

Currently 67F at CAR and 37F in Pensacola. That's always fun.

First frost in Florida before Connecticut? First snow in Texas before Connecticut? What kind of crazy world are we living in?

[CoastalWx]

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

Parents will be mad now that ToT will be in cold temps tomorrow night. 

I said that yesterday to a co-worker. Better weather on the day they cancelled it.   

[Brian5671]

7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I said that yesterday to a co-worker. Better weather on the day they cancelled it.   

really dumb in the end-the threat was overnight not during the evening.  I wonder who advises these town managers/mayors?   We went out in shorts last night-it was close to 70 degrees and zero rain.    

[HIPPYVALLEY]

2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

really dumb in the end-the threat was overnight not during the evening.  I wonder who advises these town managers/mayors?   We went out in shorts last night-it was close to 70 degrees and zero rain.    

It was wet out this way but nothing with kids couldn’t have handled. Now the problem is even though the town tried to postpone trick-or-treating until tonight there were still people out last night and so homeowners now need to deal with people ringing  their doorbells tonight after they gave out candy last night. Dumb. 

[SnoSki14]

26 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I said that yesterday to a co-worker. Better weather on the day they cancelled it.   

Incredibly stupid decision all around, was it that hard to look at a weather map and a few models.

[CoastalWx]

25 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

really dumb in the end-the threat was overnight not during the evening.  I wonder who advises these town managers/mayors?   We went out in shorts last night-it was close to 70 degrees and zero rain.    

Here is what I think happened. Two day earlier it did look wet, especially nrn MA and western MA. However, and I know some discussed it here....many times these warm sectors get a little more cleaner as you approach T=0. There was nothing to really force rain well ahead of the front except maybe in the higher terrain. Going into the 30th it appeared to really dry out even in those areas. So, the pattern recognition of things trending a little drier was already occurring. I think a few rip 'n readers still kept pimping out rain shown on some guidance. And then the winds came into play...although that was supposed to be worst to the south and at night anyways. So they postponed on all that information, but I don't think the whole thing was communicated well to the decision makers.

[A Moonlit Sky]

21 hours ago, MetHerb said:

Weeks? 

https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KCTBROOK13/table/2019-10-31/2019-10-31/monthly

Prior to this morning it's been 8 days since I've had a low in the 50s.  Prior to that I have to go back to early October.

Are you on a hill top?

From a few pages back, but yeah. That's probably part of the issue. That and perception has a recency bias that I'm probably not overcoming.

[Brian5671]

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Here is what I think happened. Two day earlier it did look wet, especially nrn MA and western MA. However, and I know some discussed it here....many times these warm sectors get a little more cleaner as you approach T=0. There was nothing to really force rain well ahead of the front except maybe in the higher terrain. Going into the 30th it appeared to really dry out even in those areas. So, the pattern recognition of things trending a little drier was already occurring. I think a few rip 'n readers still kept pimping out rain shown on some guidance. And then the winds came into play...although that was supposed to be worst to the south and at night anyways. So they postponed on all that information, but I don't think the whole thing was communicated well to the decision makers.

that's an example of the machines being ahead of humans....had anyone really been watching models they would have seen it was no big deal-but of course we do that here, most of the general public and decision makers do not.

[ORH_wxman]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

I said that yesterday to a co-worker. Better weather on the day they cancelled it.   

We tried to tell them. 

[Torch Tiger]

On 10/27/2019 at 8:17 PM, Dr. Dews said:

GYX may be bringing 'em up by Friday

The boundary may stall across the Gulf of Maine or just shy of
it  as a negatively tilting upper low moves out of the Midwest
and quickly swings northeast just north of the international
border by Friday morning. This will set us up for an intense
synoptic-scale forcing event which hopefully arrives overnight
after the trick-or-treating ends. Confidence in this scenario is
moderate and increasing as long term models continue to agree
on certain details. Friday will be a soaking for everyone as the
system lifts across the area. High PWATs, deep warm cloud
depths, and a drawn out rain event all point toward some river
flooding concerns. Ensemble forecasts are indicating that
several rivers may reach action stage.

Up up up

[powderfreak]

3 hours ago, Dr. Dews said:

Up up up

Good call on the flooding threat... hitting some 50-year recurrence interval discharge flows in NW NNE.