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October 2019 Weather Discussion


HoarfrostHubb
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3 minutes ago, Dr. Dews said:

 1.6 - 2" pw's November 1st?  Dews approaching 70??  Not normal and again I can't recall this type of torch this late.  Not to say it's a record or never happens, but definitely not 1-2 times every year.

Impressive dews at PWATs for the date to be sure, but temperature wise it's not that anomalous. We hit seventy on Christmas day a few years back, and almost 80 in spots in February two years ago. Those were impressive torches.

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He's right...these are record PWATs. It's a deep layer torch though...not just a sneaky near surface tropical feed. The CON record high min for today is 52F...current low for the day is 55F. So that will easily be a new record.

Lots of ~63F dews in S NH right now. Here's your occurrences of 63F+ dews at CON for November. The last time they had any was 2008.

image.png

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12 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

She’s going to give you a run for your money!  Ha, it’s great to have another regular poster in the upslope zone.

Oh man, if she's going to be in the Alex/Bretton Woods area that's going to be an awesome addition to the upslope zone reports.  Actually, unless she's lived in some really special places before, it could be the snowiest place she’s ever lived.

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Just now, Hoth said:

Question: can the term "torch" refer to criteria other than temperature? I'm not sure if I've ever seen it applied to dew point. 

Just hype and nonsense period.   Sure it’s warm and humid out...and very wet here today.  But as far as it being a total torch and way outlandish for late October...it isn’t at all.  At least Not imo. 
 

It’s been a gorgeous Fall so far.  A degree or two above normal isn’t anything that shouts torch to me at all.  
 

I guess everybody looks at things differently...but I just don’t get what he’s saying? 

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3 hours ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

if I was in NNE currently at elevation near upslope areas (where snow climo begins now) I would not be happy with this pattern but obviously plenty hopeful for December. I would guess climate wise ...picnic tables are 6-7 weeks ahead of SNE.

Doesn’t the pattern look fairly zonal though?  That won’t necessarily get snow going in October, but once you get into November, a zonal flow is typically going to feature at least some snow at NNE high elevations.  There’s snow in the forecast for Mansfield for 3 out of the next 6 days, so it doesn’t really seem that unusual.  We’ve even got flakes in our valley forecast over the weekend.

Typically we have to have those obvious bouts of below average temperatures to get shots of snow in October, and temperatures have been fairly steady and around average, so we only had that one round of snow earlier in the month.  Overall it seems fairly routine for this time of year I guess.

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Def impressive dews....but I'd rather measure the torch aspect by temps. Nobody in winter is going to be pimping -30F dewpoints if the 2m temps stay comfortably above record values. Well maybe a few weenies like us on here but nobody else will care. 

Recod high mins are where we can measure it more directly. 

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When do we get -30F dews? And what are we talking? 50 degree dewpoint depressions with that? Otherwise 0/-30F is pretty damn cold.

I mean the record high mins are a result of the dews. The dews have an effect on us at this level well into the 60s. No one feels a difference between 15/5 and 20/-20.

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We damage 

AY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 60 mph
  expected.

* WHERE...In Connecticut, Hartford CT and Tolland CT Counties.
  In Massachusetts, Eastern Hampshire MA and Eastern Hampden MA
  Counties.

* WHEN...From 9 PM this evening to 4 AM EDT Friday.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines.
  Widespread power outages are expected. Travel will be
  difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.

 

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33 minutes ago, dendrite said:

It's a torch to me. We just had a night in the 50s and will pull off 60s overnight tonight until the front comes through toward sunrise.

BED is 72/66...that's like a rainy July day.

Yeah the dews are definitely the more anomalous aspect.  

Relative to temps though, low 70s at the low els in SNE is comparable to a high of like 45F on the cold side.  Pretty chilly but mid-40s on Halloween doesn’t seem that exotic.  

It is a torch for sure but I dunno, the temps just aren’t doing it for me when the record maxes are still in low-80s for like CT.   Our winter torches seem much more impressive relative to normal I guess...when the ave min is like 18F but it’s 47F and raining all night in January.

Standard deviation would be the way to really measure the temps against other torches.

 

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Different folks different strokes. It's a def torch to me. We'll rack up a big anomaly for today. Most records are around 80F this time of year and we've got sites into the low 70s now with more climbing to go.

Of course I consider a swampazz 85/77 to be a torch in July too, but 88/52 isn't too bad.

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17 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I was actually thinking about 2006.  I remember a crazy fine line of strong winds and heavy rain in December, that’s probably the event.

Yup...I even think parts of northern New england had snow showers on the backside of this system. 

CAA winds with this system were crazy too if I remember. 

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25 minutes ago, dendrite said:

When do we get -30F dews? And what are we talking? 50 degree dewpoint depressions with that? Otherwise 0/-30F is pretty damn cold.

I mean the record high mins are a result of the dews. The dews have an effect on us at this level well into the 60s. No one feels a difference between 15/5 and 20/-20.

Are people really feeling the difference between 65/63 and 59/56? 

Not arguing it's not a torch...but I think we can measure that with the temps. 

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7 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Different folks different strokes. It's a def torch to me. We'll rack up a big anomaly for today. Most records are around 80F this time of year and we've got sites into the low 70s now with more climbing to go.

Of course I consider a swampazz 85/77 to be a torch in July too, but 88/52 isn't too bad.

You’re right, I’m looking back at last year and the cold looked about as impressive as this warmth.  

High of 38F last year at MVL on a normal of 51F.... this year high is 62F so far.  About equal parts each way.  

I’m still biased because of the folks that seem to think the 38F should be the normal high this time of year.  It’s just as rare here as today’s 60s.... the dews are another story.

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32 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

We damage 


AY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 60 mph
  expected.

* WHERE...In Connecticut, Hartford CT and Tolland CT Counties.
  In Massachusetts, Eastern Hampshire MA and Eastern Hampden MA
  Counties.

* WHEN...From 9 PM this evening to 4 AM EDT Friday.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines.
  Widespread power outages are expected. Travel will be
  difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.

 

* WANT...now

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Just now, powderfreak said:

You’re right, I’m looking back at last year and the cold looked about as impressive as this warmth.  

High of 38F last year at MVL on a normal of 51F.... this year high is 62F so far.  About equal parts each way.  

I’m still biased because of the folks that seem to think the 38F should be the normal high this time of year.  It’s just as rare here as today’s 60s.... the dews are another story.

Seems like people forgot 2017 really quickly. :lol:

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3 minutes ago, Dr. Dews said:

Okay,  13 years ago. PF is claiming 1-2 times a year.

There was the February event in 2016 I think it was...widespread severe weather event. 

idk though...1-2 times a year bit not be that much of a stretch...although maybe dews in the 65-70 range maybe be...60-63 or so may not be

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1 hour ago, WinterWolf said:

Just hype and nonsense period.   Sure it’s warm and humid out...and very wet here today.  But as far as it being a total torch and way outlandish for late October...it isn’t at all.  At least Not imo. 
 

It’s been a gorgeous Fall so far.  A degree or two above normal isn’t anything that shouts torch to me at all.  
 

I guess everybody looks at things differently...but I just don’t get what he’s saying? 

It's because he has to drive his insatiable desire to be right post by post. 

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