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October 2019 Weather Discussion


HoarfrostHubb
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1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

Just for reference.  The average high today in Boston is 57F and the average high at BDL is 58F.  

The record high temperature at BDL for the 30th is 83F, so I’m sure 65-70F has happened before.

Pretty much the entire month has average maxes in the 60s except this final week.  

Like we talked about yesterday, folks seem to think climo is winter now...when a normal Halloween is highs 55-60F.

For years....we tried to tell them. 

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9 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

The high temp today is just as likely to be 65F at BDL and BOS as it is 50F.  

It’s really crazy how skewed the climo perception is right now. 

I think he meant the consistency of the 50s and 60s. Usually we have at least a few days in the 40s mixed in but we haven't really had that. Even the 70s have been pretty rare. It's been really steady slightly above average. ORH has had exactly one day with highs in the 40s (47 this past Sunday). That's not really typical. We haven't had that signature cold shot that gives many their first freeze. Mostly just the rad spots got freezes. 

I wouldn't say its overly rare though. I remember 1994 and 1998 being quite mild. Obviously we remember the super torch of 2017 but that was different than this month which was really steady. 

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2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I think he meant the consistency of the 50s and 60s. Usually we have at least a few days in the 40s mixed in but we haven't really had that. Even the 70s have been pretty rare. It's been really steady slightly above average. ORH has had exactly one day with highs in the 40s (47 this past Sunday). That's not really typical. We haven't had that signature cold shot that gives many their first freeze. Mostly just the rad spots got freezes. 

I wouldn't say its overly rare though. I remember 1994 and 1998 being quite mild. Obviously we remember the super torch of 2017 but that was different than this month which was really steady. 

Yeah but given climo it still seems like the expectation is cooler.  

Record highs are still in summer temp range and record lows are barely below freezing in upper 20s.  

BDL yesterday had record high of 83F and low of 28F.  Sure a colder shot is expected but it could be 80F, or 28F.

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10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I think he meant the consistency of the 50s and 60s. Usually we have at least a few days in the 40s mixed in but we haven't really had that. Even the 70s have been pretty rare. It's been really steady slightly above average. ORH has had exactly one day with highs in the 40s (47 this past Sunday). That's not really typical. We haven't had that signature cold shot that gives many their first freeze. Mostly just the rad spots got freezes. 

I wouldn't say its overly rare though. I remember 1994 and 1998 being quite mild. Obviously we remember the super torch of 2017 but that was different than this month which was really steady. 

Yeah, consistently mild and we haven't had a freeze going into November, here. Not saying a torch month but unusually consistent with the mild.

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55 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

The high temp today is just as likely to be 65F at BDL and BOS as it is 50F.  

It’s really crazy how skewed the climo perception is right now. 

What’s picnic tables climo 

everyone does rush winter , and this year it’s probably more do to several places seeing early snows in the Amarillo area as well as Denver hitting 3f ..meanwhile dentrite is still dealing with EEE. People want the trough pendulum to swing east and bring something unseasonable here. It’s not likely at all but it’s  Human nature I suppose when u see other areas cashing in early 

if I was in NNE currently at elevation near upslope areas (where snow climo begins now) I would not be happy with this pattern but obviously plenty hopeful for December. I would guess climate wise ...picnic tables are 6-7 weeks ahead of SNE

 

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59 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

What’s picnic tables climo 

everyone does rush winter , and this year it’s probably more do to several places seeing early snows in the Amarillo area as well as Denver hitting 3f ..meanwhile dentrite is still dealing with EEE. People want the trough pendulum to swing east and bring something unseasonable here. It’s not likely at all but it’s  Human nature I suppose when u see other areas cashing in early 

if I was in NNE currently at elevation near upslope areas (where snow climo begins now) I would not be happy with this pattern but obviously plenty hopeful for December. I would guess climate wise ...picnic tables are 6-7 weeks ahead of SNE

 

If NOWdata was available I could tell you, but average highs in town per MVL are still in the low 50s.  

Picnic tables are probably like 41/28 or something?

Honestly the highs have been pretty much spot on normal if not even below normal. The mins have been warm.  

October at MVL will be around +1 up here... probably within 1 SD of normal?.

 

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1 hour ago, Dr. Dews said:

70F with 60's dews and a squall line later... not climo. Lol

And not all that unusual either.  It’s October..it gets warm still in SNE at this time of the year.  And sometimes it can thunder/and gusty rain.  Sometimes it doesn’t...but sometimes it does.  That’s “Weather” for ya.    
 

Stop trying to push the warm biased/not climo narrative...it’s getting old.  

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1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

If NOWdata was available I could tell you, but average highs in town per MVL are still in the low 50s.  

Honestly the highs have been pretty much spot on normal if not even below normal. The mins have been warm.  

October at MVL will be around +1 up here... nothing to be worried about.

especially when we snow as DEN chinooks at 70F on Feb 1st.

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17 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

If NOWdata was available I could tell you, but average highs in town per MVL are still in the low 50s.  

Picnic tables are probably like 41/28 or something?

Honestly the highs have been pretty much spot on normal if not even below normal. The mins have been warm.  

October at MVL will be around +1 up here... probably within 1 SD of normal?.

 

http://scacis.rcc-acis.org/

This should have all that same data available publicly.

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2 hours ago, Dr. Dews said:

70F with 60's dews and a squall line later... not climo. Lol

Sounds like a relatively normal fall sou’easter to be honest.  Big Lakes low and warm sector with a fine convective line....seems to happen 1-2 times a fall, no?

You get ups and downs... but honestly it seems like you are just trying to get folks riled up.  You get a day of 70F and then a day of 50F....that’s fall.  

Regardless, average highs are still up there, it’s not like it should be 45F for maxes.  That’s closer to Thanksgiving.

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1 hour ago, WinterWolf said:

And not all that unusual either.  It’s October..it gets warm still in SNE at this time of the year.  And sometimes it can thunder/and gusty rain.  Sometimes it doesn’t...but sometimes it does.  That’s “Weather” for ya.    
 

Stop trying to push the warm biased/not climo narrative...it’s getting old.  

Well down here getting 70s with near 70 dews under cloudy skies on October 31st is very unusual, in fact it's record breaking for dews this late in the season. 

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