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October 2019 Weather Discussion


HoarfrostHubb
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Just now, HoarfrostHubb said:

Ummmmm. what?

GFS is wet all afternoon/evening in SNE.  Canadian has it moving in between 2-8pm.  Euro is very wet Thursday morning into afternoon with a possible break to more showery QPF in the late afternoon and evening, before steady rain comes back overnight.  

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3 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

GFS is wet all afternoon/evening in SNE.  Canadian has it moving in between 2-8pm.  Euro is very wet Thursday morning into afternoon with a possible break to more showery QPF in the late afternoon and evening, before steady rain comes back overnight.  

Yeah I think that's the hope for a dryish Halloweenie. Get the warm frontal precip through the area and try to shut the precip off or turn it showery before the heavier rain approaches with the cold fropa. There's a shitstreak s/w that passes north of us midweek that seems to sneak in a little cooler air into the low levels to give us the overrunning as the return flow cranks back up overhead.

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GYX may be bringing 'em up by Friday

The boundary may stall across the Gulf of Maine or just shy of
it  as a negatively tilting upper low moves out of the Midwest
and quickly swings northeast just north of the international
border by Friday morning. This will set us up for an intense
synoptic-scale forcing event which hopefully arrives overnight
after the trick-or-treating ends. Confidence in this scenario is
moderate and increasing as long term models continue to agree
on certain details. Friday will be a soaking for everyone as the
system lifts across the area. High PWATs, deep warm cloud
depths, and a drawn out rain event all point toward some river
flooding concerns. Ensemble forecasts are indicating that
several rivers may reach action stage.
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18 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Yeah I think that's the hope for a dryish Halloweenie. Get the warm frontal precip through the area and try to shut the precip off or turn it showery before the heavier rain approaches with the cold fropa. There's a shitstreak s/w that passes north of us midweek that seems to sneak in a little cooler air into the low levels to give us the overrunning as the return flow cranks back up overhead.

Yeah the EURO looked like the best solution for trick or treating from SNE up through the coastal plain of NNE, an 8-10 hour window of hit or miss showery weather in the warm sector. 

Going to be mild though with that warm front making it into southern Quebec.... looks like kids will be going door to door in shorts.  Going to be humid, with widespread dews in the 60s.

8pm Dew Points...maybe re-install in Tolland so the kids can cool off in a drier air mass after hiking around the neighborhood?ecmwf-neng-t2m_f-2566400.thumb.png.4767ca964aa18d3b16abfb525ce90237.png

 

 

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17 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah the EURO looked like the best solution for trick or treating from SNE up through the coastal plain of NNE, an 8-10 hour window of hit or miss showery weather in the warm sector. 

Going to be mild though with that warm front making it into southern Quebec.... looks like kids will be going door to door in shorts.  Going to be humid, with widespread dews in the 60s.

8pm Dew Points...maybe re-install in Tolland so the kids can cool off in a drier air mass after hiking around the neighborhood?

May want to just dress the kids in AC costumes.

image.png

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