alex Posted October 25, 2019 Share Posted October 25, 2019 55 minutes ago, ice1972 said: How does it go? “The pattern in November the winter will remember?” It’s not exact obviously but I swear it seems to happen to some degree more times than not.....just my impression....no data to support that If the winter had remembered the pattern from November I’d still have snow from last winter on the ground. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 25, 2019 Share Posted October 25, 2019 1 hour ago, weathafella said: Pretty common actually to have snow and cold September onwards. Heck, the coldest temperatures I experienced in the 2014-15 winter were in Denver around Veterans Day. True on the arctic outbreaks in Denver during fall....but that 2014 cold outbreak was epic and nothing really normal about it. That tied Denver's 2nd coldest November temperature on record....and it occurred on 11/13!!! The only colder temp in the month of November on record there was Nov 29, 1877. Probably froze some Rockey Mountain locusts and oxen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 25, 2019 Share Posted October 25, 2019 Why can’t we get that? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted October 25, 2019 Share Posted October 25, 2019 Quick question for you guys since we are talking cold and snow. In general what is the best parameter to look at for snow vs rain? 540 thickness or the 850mb temperature? I know a lot more goes into snow forecasting than this but when I quickly look ahead in incoming weather events I'm not sure what is better to use. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 25, 2019 Share Posted October 25, 2019 5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Why can’t we get that? We don’t have a direct unimpeded pipeline. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 25, 2019 Share Posted October 25, 2019 1 minute ago, wxeyeNH said: Quick question for you guys since we are talking cold and snow. In general what is the best parameter to look at for snow vs rain? 540 thickness or the 850mb temperature? I know a lot more goes into snow forecasting than this but when I quickly look ahead in incoming weather events I'm not sure what is better to use. Thanks 1000-850 thickness and 850-700 are probably more accurate vs 1000-500. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 25, 2019 Share Posted October 25, 2019 Just now, wxeyeNH said: Quick question for you guys since we are talking cold and snow. In general what is the best parameter to look at for snow vs rain? 540 thickness or the 850mb temperature? I know a lot more goes into snow forecasting than this but when I quickly look ahead in incoming weather events I'm not sure what is better to use. Thanks That's a tough one...it really depends on the type of airmass. If it's near isothermal then you would prefer 850 but in situations where the cold is shallow, then 540 would be more accurate. Obviously the best case is to just look at soundings but I get wanting to make a quick judgement based on a map and not finding a sounding. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 25, 2019 Share Posted October 25, 2019 Just now, weathafella said: 1000-850 thickness and 850-700 are probably more accurate vs 1000-500. This is true but these parameters are also not found on most sites. I'm assuming he's asking for a quick judgment call based on the more common 850 temps and 540 thickness line that shows up on the surface precip maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 25, 2019 Share Posted October 25, 2019 10 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Why can’t we get that? We do once in while... granted, it's been awhile, but 1989 we had the sea level variation on that. I remember full sun, 11 F with trees bending in the wind in November that year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 25, 2019 Share Posted October 25, 2019 The black and white rgem maps have the more uncommon 1000-700 thickness line (and I think the regional NAM map too on ewall)...which is actually better than both 850 temps and the 540 line on 1000-500 thickness maps. You want the 2840m line on the 1000-700 thickness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 25, 2019 Share Posted October 25, 2019 1 hour ago, ice1972 said: How does it go? “The pattern in November the winter will remember?” It’s not exact obviously but I swear it seems to happen to some degree more times than not.....just my impression....no data to support that Last November was below normal temps, above normal snow.... and the winter followed with that same designation. Hey it worked at least one year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 25, 2019 Share Posted October 25, 2019 Not a bad looking couplet there...also had a pretty decent increase in lightning as it tightened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 25, 2019 Share Posted October 25, 2019 18 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Why can’t we get that? We’ve had some good November cold shots before, but not like that. But a few years ago I remember being below 0F on a November morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LSC97wxnut Posted October 25, 2019 Share Posted October 25, 2019 51 minutes ago, scoob40 said: Maybe J. Flacco will snap out of it. Heh... Isn't Denver weather prone to wild swings like that though? I feel as though I remember the year Payton beat the Pats to go to the Super Bowl in NYC it was 65* and sunny on the day of the game, but it had snowed like two days before and again the day after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 25, 2019 Share Posted October 25, 2019 Was looking back, We had 0.5"snow on 10/27 last year here and then received 19" in November, I don't see that happening this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 25, 2019 Share Posted October 25, 2019 Last year was frigid in November. Had a morning of -10F...not bad for before Thanksgiving. Also on Nov 22nd last year MVL ASOS had a maximum temperature of 11F with a minimum temp of 2F. High temp of 11F before Thanksgiving is almost more impressive than -10F morning. 5 days last November had departures of -20 or lower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 25, 2019 Share Posted October 25, 2019 1 minute ago, powderfreak said: We’ve had some good November cold shots before, but not like that. But a few years ago I remember being below 0F on a November morning. We were below zero on Thanksgiving here last year, I went out hunting in the afternoon after thanksgiving dinner and was in a cedar swamp wondering WTF were you thinking. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 25, 2019 Share Posted October 25, 2019 13 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Last November was below normal temps, above normal snow.... and the winter followed with that same designation. Hey it worked at least one year. Lol ... it's like, "who's with me!" yeah...as I seemed to have started this sub-stream, I just wanna clarify ... the word "tendency" was used liberally for a reason in that. In 1989, we had a cryo-November and then putrid Jan and Feb ... I just see it over the long haul, there are more examples where success/failure tendencies during spring(autumn) will parlay into the ensuing summer(winter). Seems is bit different than reality at times tho - it may be that the mind just recalls... I dunno Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 25, 2019 Share Posted October 25, 2019 1 minute ago, dryslot said: We were below zero on Thanksgiving here last year, I went out hunting in the afternoon after thanksgiving dinner and was in a cedar swamp wondering WTF were you thinking. Yeah looking at last year is nuts. Absolutely insane cold for November. A whole bunch of single digit mins and even below zero. Lots of highs in the 20s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 25, 2019 Share Posted October 25, 2019 ORH had their coldest November day on record last year and it occurred on Tday which was 8 days before the end of the month. Their high of 16F obliterated the old record low max for the month which had previously been 20F on 11/30/58 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 25, 2019 Share Posted October 25, 2019 That D7 Euro reminds me of a slightly scaled up version ( size ) of the Dec 2005 event, only over the Lakes. That's gotta have stinger for ORD! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted October 25, 2019 Share Posted October 25, 2019 33 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: This is true but these parameters are also not found on most sites. I'm assuming he's asking for a quick judgment call based on the more common 850 temps and 540 thickness line that shows up on the surface precip maps. Thanks Will and Jerry. Yeah, just the quick parameter found on most sites. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 25, 2019 Share Posted October 25, 2019 17 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: ORH had their coldest November day on record last year and it occurred on Tday which was 8 days before the end of the month. Their high of 16F obliterated the old record low max for the month which had previously been 20F on 11/30/58 Yeah that’s the air mass. Cold! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 25, 2019 Share Posted October 25, 2019 We look according to modeling to start Nov on the colder side at least that first week. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 25, 2019 Share Posted October 25, 2019 1 hour ago, LSC97wxnut said: Heh... Isn't Denver weather prone to wild swings like that though? I feel as though I remember the year Payton beat the Pats to go to the Super Bowl in NYC it was 65* and sunny on the day of the game, but it had snowed like two days before and again the day after. ah yup.. This is particularly true in autumns and springs at that location. Keep in mind ... Denver is referred to as the "mile high city" .. by and large having elevations ranging between 5,100 and 5,700 feet.. That's like most of the way up Mt Washington if it helps put it in perspective. Warmth at that elevation(s) is gossamer particularly in autumn and spring. It can be wiped out immediately.. Just over that elevation ...say 7,500 feet it's cold regardless, in July. So, any kind of turbulent mixing that moves into that region is going to crumble the air closer to the free air lapse right at height 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted October 25, 2019 Share Posted October 25, 2019 rough pattern for winter hounds on the longer range modeling. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 25, 2019 Share Posted October 25, 2019 Wish @weathafella was there. Epic Oct week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 25, 2019 Share Posted October 25, 2019 I would love some early season love..off from work until 12/9 starting tonight. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 25, 2019 Share Posted October 25, 2019 26 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Wish @weathafella was there. Epic Oct week That’s the dream right there. It’s either 60s or 70s, or mid-winter. Nothing in between. Highs in 70s and teens, all in a 5 day stretch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted October 25, 2019 Share Posted October 25, 2019 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I would love some early season love..off from work until 12/9 starting tonight. Baby? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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