purduewx80 Posted October 25, 2019 Share Posted October 25, 2019 8 hours ago, Ginx snewx said: SNE the heavy thundersnow capital of the country Nice find. There are a lot more ASOS in the NE than most other areas of the country. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 25, 2019 Share Posted October 25, 2019 1 hour ago, Snow88 said: Not even putting out a forecast ? We also have been burned by the Euro in the past. The GFS has been pretty meh in the medium-to-long range. It's become pretty obvious the GFS would cave into the Euro and with each successive run the GFS has been doing so. Every year when we get to this point in the fall the GFS becomes way too quick with these major pattern changes and significant (long lasting) cold shots. Sure they have happened before and eventually they will, but there just doesn't seem to be significant support across all suites for this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted October 25, 2019 Share Posted October 25, 2019 yeah, halloween does not look frigid on the euro.. but maybe rainy.. which sucks for the kids. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 25, 2019 Share Posted October 25, 2019 2 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said: yeah, halloween does not look frigid on the euro.. but maybe rainy.. which sucks for the kids. I remember going out one year and it poured...it was miserable. My brothers and I all went as Barney and our costumes were all ripped Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted October 25, 2019 Share Posted October 25, 2019 1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said: Cold records are the Baltimore Orioles, Miami Dolphins of the media. As a Dolphins fan, this hurts. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted October 25, 2019 Share Posted October 25, 2019 13 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: I remember going out one year and it poured...it was miserable. My brothers and I all went as Barney and our costumes were all ripped I think we've been lucky with our kids, have had mostly good weather except for Sandy and the snow cancelled one a few years ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted October 25, 2019 Share Posted October 25, 2019 2 hours ago, weatherwiz said: CA is just a disaster. Couldn't pay me enough to live there. My sister in law lives in Santa Clarita and was evacuated last night. They just dealt with an earthquake a couple months ago...I'm not sure what the allure is to live there! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 25, 2019 Share Posted October 25, 2019 3 minutes ago, Spanks45 said: My sister in law lives in Santa Clarita and was evacuated last night. They just dealt with an earthquake a couple months ago...I'm not sure what the allure is to live there! Oh man...sorry to hear that. Hope she was able to get out alright. The videos/pictures are beyond a worst nightmare. Probably the nice beaches lol...but seriously I don't see it either. Incredibly expensive, horrific air quality, non-stop traffic, mudslides, fires, earthquakes (I know its like like this everywhere...especially with traffic but) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 25, 2019 Share Posted October 25, 2019 25 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Oh man...sorry to hear that. Hope she was able to get out alright. The videos/pictures are beyond a worst nightmare. Probably the nice beaches lol...but seriously I don't see it either. Incredibly expensive, horrific air quality, non-stop traffic, mudslides, fires, earthquakes (I know its like like this everywhere...especially with traffic but) Highest and lowest point in the continental US within 150 miles of each other. The Central Valley is capable of feeding the entire nation. Spectacular geography. Yes LA and San Francisco are ridiculously traffic laden. That said, San Francisco is among earths most beautiful cities. Nevertheless, I’m perfectly happy in New England having spent 15 years in California. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 25, 2019 Share Posted October 25, 2019 13 minutes ago, weathafella said: Highest and lowest point in the continental US within 150 miles of each other. The Central Valley is capable of feeding the entire nation. Spectacular geography. Yes LA and San Francisco are ridiculously traffic laden. That said, San Francisco is among earths most beautiful cities. Nevertheless, I’m perfectly happy in New England having spent 15 years in California. I did not know that...that's pretty cool (although if asked that on trivia would have probably just guessed CA ) I am sure the views are breathtaking...especially from what I've seen with photos...but not sure if that would be enough to make me live there haha. I'll take New England anyday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 25, 2019 Share Posted October 25, 2019 My fingers are temped to start a low topped convective thread for end of next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 25, 2019 Share Posted October 25, 2019 1 hour ago, mreaves said: As a Dolphins fan, this hurts. You must be in constant pain on a yearly basis. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 25, 2019 Share Posted October 25, 2019 2 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Well a big part of that, is the area. Nobody will react to Bison covered in snow in late October. Denver Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 25, 2019 Share Posted October 25, 2019 7 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Denver Am I allowed to post graphics from Ryan Mau'es site (using the pay version)? Anyways...NWS blend of models has high temperatures 30 to 40°F....30 to 40°F below-average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 25, 2019 Share Posted October 25, 2019 No one is supposed to post the protected euro data. I think Ryan allows the other graphics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 25, 2019 Share Posted October 25, 2019 24 minutes ago, dendrite said: No one is supposed to post the protected euro data. I think Ryan allows the other graphics. This isn't Euro so hope it's ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted October 25, 2019 Share Posted October 25, 2019 1 hour ago, weatherwiz said: Oh man...sorry to hear that. Hope she was able to get out alright. The videos/pictures are beyond a worst nightmare. Probably the nice beaches lol...but seriously I don't see it either. Incredibly expensive, horrific air quality, non-stop traffic, mudslides, fires, earthquakes (I know its like like this everywhere...especially with traffic but) Much prefer the NNE mix: Little hurricanes, little tornados, little earthquakes, big snowstorms. Edit: Add to the above the "asbestos forest". 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 25, 2019 Share Posted October 25, 2019 8 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: This isn't Euro so hope it's ok. lol...you can't direct link from his site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 25, 2019 Share Posted October 25, 2019 4 minutes ago, dendrite said: lol...you can't direct link from his site. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 25, 2019 Share Posted October 25, 2019 2 hours ago, Ginx snewx said: Denver Pretty common actually to have snow and cold September onwards. Heck, the coldest temperatures I experienced in the 2014-15 winter were in Denver around Veterans Day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 25, 2019 Share Posted October 25, 2019 Soaker on the gfs for halloween 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 25, 2019 Share Posted October 25, 2019 I'm a bit of a fan of 'seasonal precedence,' however. Establish a tendency for certain looks and appeals early on, and usually, per my own experience over the decades ..those tendencies will reemerge in more cases than not - usually with more amplitude when the ensuing season gets properly underway. Obviously by that I mean when cold patterns in autumn or warm patterns in spring. But, I don't mean the pattern structures, per se, I mean the advent - though obviously on some level those two are linked. So, a very warm March in 2012 went on to a historically hot summer for much of the U.S. In 1995, we started getting unusually deep rad cooled nights in late October. I remember that last week of October when I attended college at Lowell. On a couple of mornings the brilliant saffron and yellowed maples along University Ave were being stripped barren in no wind; one morning the Lab put down a 19 F for a low at dawn. The other observation, the typical small rivulets cascading down the aqueduct fascia that always faced north began to freeze in early November, forming fragile infant ice-falls, yet their fragility began to survive the afternoons. These are only observations a nerd might make ... but I remember "feeling" like these were good omens at the time. I mean I don't if there's anything to this but it seems like there is a 'hidden pattern' - really a tendency pattern. Some years it seems one could all but totally forget just how difficult it is to snow, or thunder. Other years the dearth of these coveted cinema types is down-right maddening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 25, 2019 Share Posted October 25, 2019 I am seeing lots of HC compression in the field though ... everywhere. These troughs are plumbing to their nadirs around Colorado's longitude ( or so ), then the southern arcs of them start slopping positively tilted as they are then kicked through the east and are force ( insufficiently ) to try and conserve their wind velocities against that compression velocity. That positive sloping back west is absorption really. This may be a cold blustery pattern for the NP-Lakes and occasional OV/NE regions, with less synoptic organization - a nice example in how velocity saturation is a partial destructive interference. Could be a good gin up for lake effect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted October 25, 2019 Share Posted October 25, 2019 How does it go? “The pattern in November the winter will remember?” It’s not exact obviously but I swear it seems to happen to some degree more times than not.....just my impression....no data to support that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 25, 2019 Share Posted October 25, 2019 22 minutes ago, ice1972 said: How does it go? “The pattern in November the winter will remember?” It’s not exact obviously but I swear it seems to happen to some degree more times than not.....just my impression....no data to support that December-obviously way wrong frequently of late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 25, 2019 Share Posted October 25, 2019 25 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: I am seeing lots of HC compression in the field though ... everywhere. These troughs are plumbing to their nadirs around Colorado's longitude ( or so ), then the southern arcs of them start slopping positively tilted as they are then kicked through the east and are force ( insufficiently ) to try and conserve their wind velocities against that compression velocity. That positive sloping back west is absorption really. This may be a cold blustery pattern for the NP-Lakes and occasional OV/NE regions, with less synoptic organization - a nice example in how velocity saturation is a partial destructive interference. Could be a good gin up for lake effect. These troughs have to be plummeting AAM...no wonder the atmosphere is in a Nina state. Be interesting to see how much longer this persists. This is also why I don't believe ENSO is going to be a strong contributor to the global pattern this winter....going to be too weak and it looks like there will be other factors which hold more weight...for example, AAM. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 25, 2019 Share Posted October 25, 2019 55 minutes ago, weathafella said: Pretty common actually to have snow and cold September onwards. Heck, the coldest temperatures I experienced in the 2014-15 winter were in Denver around Veterans Day. Maybe but the Euro has them near record Oct lows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 25, 2019 Share Posted October 25, 2019 10 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: These troughs have to be plummeting AAM...no wonder the atmosphere is in a Nina state. Be interesting to see how much longer this persists. This is also why I don't believe ENSO is going to be a strong contributor to the global pattern this winter....going to be too weak and it looks like there will be other factors which hold more weight...for example, AAM. I'm not sure where you're going with the angular momentum stuff but I tend to agree regarding the ENSO A weak forcing potential by a weak warm(cool) ENSO gets lost inside an HC that is enormous. That blocks the former's ability to modulate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 25, 2019 Share Posted October 25, 2019 7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: I'm not sure where you're going with the angular momentum stuff but I tend to agree regarding the ENSO A weak forcing potential by a weak warm(cool) ENSO gets lost inside an HC that is enormous. That blocks the former's ability to modulate. The state of AAM (at times) throughout the course of the winter may result in a hemispheric configuration which is opposite of what you would expect given the ENSO signal. Actually if we do want to talk ENSO...the weak EL Nino signal may be just enough to result in an expanded Hadley Cell which would not be good for CA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scoob40 Posted October 25, 2019 Share Posted October 25, 2019 13 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Maybe but the Euro has them near record Oct lows. Maybe J. Flacco will snap out of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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