HIPPYVALLEY Posted October 24, 2019 Share Posted October 24, 2019 9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Get those vehicles washed, waxed, tires and rims shined up, vacuum insides, wipe off seats and dashboards Instead of smoking cannabis and chuckin’ frisbees? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 24, 2019 Share Posted October 24, 2019 6 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Instead of smoking cannabis and chuckin’ frisbees? All work no play 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted October 24, 2019 Share Posted October 24, 2019 2 hours ago, tamarack said: There's Fixer-Upper, Homestead Rescue, Maine Cabin Masters - why not Lawn Rescue, and we know where the pilot should be filmed. I like MCM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 24, 2019 Share Posted October 24, 2019 1 hour ago, dendrite said: GFS is conveniently caving next week a little bit every run rather than a wholesale cave. It's almost like it hopes no one notices. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 24, 2019 Share Posted October 24, 2019 The pictures out of the Geyserville, CA area are scary. I can't even imagine the fear those people are going through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted October 24, 2019 Share Posted October 24, 2019 1 hour ago, weatherwiz said: I've always taken extreme caution with correlations relating to precipitation (in this case snowfall and potential snowfall totals). Sure you can derive a general likelihood of what to expect based on pattern recognition, but at the end of the day (I think anyways) something like snowfall is tied more into how all pieces involved interact. We've had some damn good patterns fail to produce and we've had horrific patterns produce. I think at the end of the day it's embedded disturbances within the overall pattern which dictate the end result moreso than the overall pattern configuration. I believe it’s important to ponder that seasonal snowfall forecasting may never ever be decently accurate on a semi consistent basis . But ahhh the challenge and / or the notoriety if one can are enticing . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 24, 2019 Share Posted October 24, 2019 1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: I believe it’s important to ponder that seasonal snowfall forecasting may never ever be decently accurate on a semi consistent basis . But ahhh the challenge and / or the notoriety if one can are enticing . This is just my own opinion, but I don't think there is really any merit to seasonal snowfall forecasting (and the same goes with tornadoes)...now you can certainly do something along the lines of a probabilistic standpoint indicating likelihood of above-average, around average, and below-average...but doing so by a range of totals...I don't think there is any skill or merit to it. There are way too many factors involved which you simply can't forecast (outside of short-term) and can't correlate to a specific pattern...one of them being how much snow a system can potentially produce. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 24, 2019 Share Posted October 24, 2019 I get super depressed scrolling through the instability maps through the duration of the run...this is sad. This isn't good...like I want spring and summer now. It's only October and way too early to start the May 1st countdown. This is going to be tough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 24, 2019 Share Posted October 24, 2019 1 minute ago, weatherwiz said: I get super depressed scrolling through the instability maps through the duration of the run...this is sad. This isn't good...like I want spring and summer now. It's only October and way too early to start the May 1st countdown. This is going to be tough Paul, Get some help, Or hope the B's continue winning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted October 24, 2019 Share Posted October 24, 2019 63? short days until sun angle goes up up up. Really looking forward to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 24, 2019 Share Posted October 24, 2019 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 24, 2019 Share Posted October 24, 2019 Hang in there Wizzy: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted October 24, 2019 Share Posted October 24, 2019 11 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Hang in there Wizzy: At least he’ll have, in the upper right, Meteorologies most reliable and accurate instrument. As always ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 24, 2019 Share Posted October 24, 2019 TSSN at AMA. Why can't we get that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 24, 2019 Share Posted October 24, 2019 Euro whiffed on the phase next week so it's actually pretty chilly on Halloween with high pressure over N maine. That's prob a good scenario...avoid the rain for trick or treating but also avoid the nasty CAA winds that GFS would have. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 24, 2019 Share Posted October 24, 2019 Yeah.. .we covered that ... how, even with just vestigial tendency to still lag wave mechanics too far SW ( and vastly improved over 20 years ago in this particular guidance ) it still does that; but in this scenario, that meridional bias might entice physical wave-space sharing too prodigiously ? I don't so much think really it's "leaving" so much as "digging" too much to begin with? As in, it tends to curved flow too liberally beyond D6 ... 7. It's why it has the D8 bomb on Cape cod as a seemingly permanent D8-10 model feature from T.G. to St Paddy's day.. As an aside I don't think curved flow is inherently favored in a gradient rich total circulation ambiance - which is the result of the expanded HC encroaching on the lower FC latitudes. That interface doesn't need 12 isopleths to get the job done, and that seems to be the new f norm every winter because of the former. Anyway, that doesn't lend there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 25, 2019 Share Posted October 25, 2019 SNE the heavy thundersnow capital of the country 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 25, 2019 Share Posted October 25, 2019 Automated stations excluded...so there ya go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 25, 2019 Share Posted October 25, 2019 CA is just a disaster. Couldn't pay me enough to live there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2019 Share Posted October 25, 2019 Rain for Halloween. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 25, 2019 Share Posted October 25, 2019 7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Rain for Halloween. Flakes around November 3rd? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2019 Share Posted October 25, 2019 6 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: Flakes around November 3rd? I don't even look at the GFS. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 25, 2019 Share Posted October 25, 2019 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: I don't even look at the GFS. Not even putting out a forecast ? We also have been burned by the Euro in the past. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 25, 2019 Share Posted October 25, 2019 25 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Rain for Halloween. A frigid soaking Helloween Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2019 Share Posted October 25, 2019 8 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Not even putting out a forecast ? We also have been burned by the Euro in the past. Perhaps if I am looking at storm potential or trends, but overall your forecast skill will go down if you blend in the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2019 Share Posted October 25, 2019 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: A frigid soaking Helloween Looks mild. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2019 Share Posted October 25, 2019 Some of those temps out west has to be near or at record levels. You're talking possibly U10s for highs and below 0 at night in late October. And not just some elevated valley at 10,000ft either. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 25, 2019 Share Posted October 25, 2019 Just now, CoastalWx said: Some of those temps out west has to be near or at record levels. You're talking possibly U10s for highs and below 0 at night in late October. And not just some elevated valley at 10,000ft either. Cold records are the Baltimore Orioles, Miami Dolphins of the media. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 25, 2019 Share Posted October 25, 2019 Temp swing much Denver? Shorts and jorts to Parkas and mittens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2019 Share Posted October 25, 2019 4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Cold records are the Baltimore Orioles, Miami Dolphins of the media. Well a big part of that, is the area. Nobody will react to Bison covered in snow in late October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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