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October 2019 Weather Discussion


HoarfrostHubb
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1 hour ago, weatherwiz said:

I've always taken extreme caution with correlations relating to precipitation (in this case snowfall and potential snowfall totals). Sure you can derive a general likelihood of what to expect based on pattern recognition, but at the end of the day (I think anyways) something like snowfall is tied more into how all pieces involved interact. We've had some damn good patterns fail to produce and we've had horrific patterns produce. 

I think at the end of the day it's embedded disturbances within the overall pattern which dictate the end result moreso than the overall pattern configuration. 

I believe it’s important to ponder that seasonal snowfall forecasting may never ever be decently accurate on a semi consistent basis . But ahhh the challenge and / or the notoriety if one can are enticing .

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1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

I believe it’s important to ponder that seasonal snowfall forecasting may never ever be decently accurate on a semi consistent basis . But ahhh the challenge and / or the notoriety if one can are enticing .

This is just my own opinion, but I don't think there is really any merit to seasonal snowfall forecasting (and the same goes with tornadoes)...now you can certainly do something along the lines of a probabilistic standpoint indicating likelihood of above-average, around average, and below-average...but doing so by a range of totals...I don't think there is any skill or merit to it. There are way too many factors involved which you simply can't forecast (outside of short-term) and can't correlate to a specific pattern...one of them being how much snow a system can potentially produce. 

 

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1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

I get super depressed scrolling through the instability maps through the duration of the run...this is sad. This isn't good...like I want spring and summer now. It's only October and way too early to start the May 1st countdown. This is going to be tough 

Paul, Get some help, Or hope the B's continue winning.

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Euro whiffed on the phase next week so it's actually pretty chilly on Halloween with high pressure over N maine. That's prob a good scenario...avoid the rain for trick or treating but also avoid the nasty CAA winds that GFS would have. 

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Yeah.. .we covered that ... how, even with just vestigial tendency to still lag wave mechanics too far SW ( and vastly improved over 20 years ago in this particular guidance ) it still does that; but in this scenario, that meridional bias might entice physical wave-space sharing too prodigiously ?

I don't so much think really it's "leaving" so much as "digging" too much to begin with?  As in, it tends to curved flow too liberally beyond D6 ... 7.  It's why it has the D8 bomb on Cape cod as a seemingly permanent D8-10 model feature from T.G. to St Paddy's day..

As an aside I don't think curved flow is inherently favored in a gradient rich total circulation ambiance - which is the result of the expanded HC encroaching on the lower FC latitudes. That interface doesn't need 12 isopleths to get the job done, and that seems to be the new f norm every winter because of the former.  Anyway, that doesn't lend there. 

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Just now, CoastalWx said:

Some of those temps out west has to be near or at record levels. You're talking possibly U10s for highs and below 0 at night in late October. And not just some elevated valley at 10,000ft either. 

Cold records are the Baltimore Orioles, Miami Dolphins of the media.

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