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October 2019 Weather Discussion


HoarfrostHubb
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9 hours ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Yeah, we were on that train for a long time but when the old girl died from lymph tumors in Sept I pulled the Seresto off the young male dog.   Maybe I go back to it next year but he’s yellow/blonde and they are easy to spot with a good check after walks.  May and Oct are the worst, he just needs to get over not being in our bed those months! 

Stay away from applying chemicals on the pups. I work in the chemical industry, trust me...don’t do it if you don’t have to. Cedar oil and other essential oils do the job. My wife makes a blend, PM me and I’ll give you the ingredients.

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17 hours ago, OceanStWx said:

Well they are both going away in the near future, so I wouldn't expect any significant changes to MOS. Any the NAM is on its last legs, as the future will be the FV3 and HRRR. 

The HRRR seems to have tremendous potential. the extended runs of the HRRR have seemed to do a pretty decent job...though that's just observation...could be completely wrong and quickly shot down via the scores.

 

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Here's a question...this is EPS 6-10 day mean.

See how that ridge is oriented in the GoA...how it extends into AK from like a SSW to a NNE orientation?

(Excuse my drawing, but if that ridge was configured more south to north and positioned slightly differently, would the result of the central US trough be farther east with the east ridging now into the Atlantic...but how would that pool of below-average heights (assuming that's the Azores high_ behave?

Also, does this Azores high play any significance to how the pattern is configured across the east? When the NAO is positive this feature is always going to be weaker than average (showing up as below-average heights)...I feel like anytime you have a trough centered in the central U.S. and you have these below-average heights with the Azores high, the response in the middle has to be a ridge.

image.thumb.png.2fd7de0ba794a21c65afe14a610bb162.png

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37 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Here's a question...this is EPS 6-10 day mean.

See how that ridge is oriented in the GoA...how it extends into AK from like a SSW to a NNE orientation?

(Excuse my drawing, but if that ridge was configured more south to north and positioned slightly differently, would the result of the central US trough be farther east with the east ridging now into the Atlantic...but how would that pool of below-average heights (assuming that's the Azores high_ behave?

Also, does this Azores high play any significance to how the pattern is configured across the east? When the NAO is positive this feature is always going to be weaker than average (showing up as below-average heights)...I feel like anytime you have a trough centered in the central U.S. and you have these below-average heights with the Azores high, the response in the middle has to be a ridge.

image.thumb.png.2fd7de0ba794a21c65afe14a610bb162.png

Keep in mind that's the entire NHEM so your hypothetical ridge is significantly negatively tilted.

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1 hour ago, weatherwiz said:

Here's a question...this is EPS 6-10 day mean.

See how that ridge is oriented in the GoA...how it extends into AK from like a SSW to a NNE orientation?

(Excuse my drawing, but if that ridge was configured more south to north and positioned slightly differently, would the result of the central US trough be farther east with the east ridging now into the Atlantic...but how would that pool of below-average heights (assuming that's the Azores high_ behave?

Also, does this Azores high play any significance to how the pattern is configured across the east? When the NAO is positive this feature is always going to be weaker than average (showing up as below-average heights)...I feel like anytime you have a trough centered in the central U.S. and you have these below-average heights with the Azores high, the response in the middle has to be a ridge.

 

Would be a sweet look 30+ days from now with longer wavelengths. 

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