tamarack Posted October 22, 2019 Share Posted October 22, 2019 4 hours ago, dryslot said: Looks like a soaker up here the next two days, Looking at the end of Oct into the first part of Nov, It looks to be heading on the cooler side over the Northeast. October is our wettest month (5.62") on average, and we're just under 4" at present - looks like we'll be close to the mark. Had to challenge last Thursday's storm with the forest certification auditors, and tomorrow morning I need to be in Orono by about 8:20 - might keep me under the heaviest band all the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted October 22, 2019 Share Posted October 22, 2019 8 hours ago, weatherwiz said: Something needs to be done with either the NAM, GFS, or both...particularly with the MOS outputs b/c this is absolutely ridiculous...every stupid freaking fall and spring there are always these large...very large major differences between the two with regards to high and low temperatures...I mean huge...in some cases like 10-15F differences...RIDICULOUS. Now I know there are other methods and means for forecasting highs and lows...that's not the point here...can't do that when you forecast for a large number of cities. SOMEONE NEEDS TO DO SOMETHING. Now I can understand when there is a frontal boundary and there are timing differences between the models, but in many cases THERE ARE NO FRONTS. What i derive is the NAM under-mixes and GFS over-mixes...FIX IT You should be thankful model guidance isnt always perfect. Otherwise we wouldnt have jobs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted October 22, 2019 Share Posted October 22, 2019 1 hour ago, OceanStWx said: Well they are both going away in the near future, so I wouldn't expect any significant changes to MOS. Any the NAM is on its last legs, as the future will be the FV3 and HRRR. We will only have fv3 mos? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 22, 2019 Share Posted October 22, 2019 11 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: We will only have fv3 mos? Eventually not even that. I believe the plan is to transition to NBM MOS. There will be a short, long, and extended. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted October 22, 2019 Share Posted October 22, 2019 1 minute ago, OceanStWx said: Eventually not even that. I believe the plan is to transition to NBM MOS. There will be a short, long, and extended. Ahh thanks. I was trying to come up a with a whitty interpretation of NBM but failed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 22, 2019 Share Posted October 22, 2019 Just now, OSUmetstud said: Ahh thanks. I was trying to come up a with a whitty interpretation of NBM but failed. The NBM is pretty robust on temps, so eventually I think it would be strong guidance. The problem is that we would have very little experience with the NBM and its MOS. So hard to tease out the typically biases right away. Going to be some growing pains I'd imagine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 22, 2019 Share Posted October 22, 2019 Sounds like Ginx invented it. NBM...Not Boring MOS? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted October 22, 2019 Share Posted October 22, 2019 33 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: You should be thankful model guidance isnt always perfect. Otherwise we wouldnt have jobs. Sure you will, the Atmospheric Professionals will become MMOM’s: Model Maintenance Oversight Meteorologists. As always..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 22, 2019 Share Posted October 22, 2019 1 hour ago, tamarack said: October is our wettest month (5.62") on average, and we're just under 4" at present - looks like we'll be close to the mark. Had to challenge last Thursday's storm with the forest certification auditors, and tomorrow morning I need to be in Orono by about 8:20 - might keep me under the heaviest band all the way. Good chance you stay under that band Tom, 3.92" here so far this month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 22, 2019 Share Posted October 22, 2019 10 minutes ago, dryslot said: Good chance you stay under that band Tom, 3.92" here so far this month. The rain will certainly fall in Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 22, 2019 Share Posted October 22, 2019 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: The rain will certainly fall in Maine. Another 1-1.5" on the way for Maines. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 22, 2019 Share Posted October 22, 2019 7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: The rain will certainly fall in Maine. The rains in Maine fall on my open pit reserved for a patio to be built this weekend... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 22, 2019 Share Posted October 22, 2019 22 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: The rains in Maine fall on my open pit reserved for a patio to be built this weekend... Pool instead? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 22, 2019 Share Posted October 22, 2019 43 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: The rains in Maine fall on my open pit reserved for a patio to be built this weekend... Might as well keep it full and make it an outdoor rink. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 23, 2019 Share Posted October 23, 2019 Cold end Oct/early Nov but the flow is so screamin’ fast nothing can happen Perfect ! Zactly what everyone wants Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted October 23, 2019 Share Posted October 23, 2019 10 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Cold end Oct/early Nov but the flow is so screamin’ fast nothing can happen Perfect ! Zactly what everyone wants Well I hope your crystal ball sees the "flow" slowing down mid Novie for the rest of winter so we can get something to produce and accumulate! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 23, 2019 Share Posted October 23, 2019 17 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Cold end Oct/early Nov but the flow is so screamin’ fast nothing can happen Perfect ! Zactly what everyone wants I think we can pull off a Halloween storm.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted October 23, 2019 Share Posted October 23, 2019 1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said: Cold end Oct/early Nov but the flow is so screamin’ fast nothing can happen Perfect ! Zactly what everyone wants It seems like Groundhog Day as far as fast flow is concerned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted October 23, 2019 Share Posted October 23, 2019 Moderate rain the past hour and I know we need the precipitation but the dry pattern has been so nice. The dog had his first tick today since May! The disease spreading, parasitic insects, need moisture and when it is dry, they fail to thrive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 23, 2019 Share Posted October 23, 2019 Just now, HIPPYVALLEY said: Moderate rain the past hour and I know we need the precipitation but the dry pattern has been so nice. The dog had his first tick today since May! The disease spreading, parasitic insects, need moisture and when it is dry, they fail to thrive. Seresto collars Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 23, 2019 Share Posted October 23, 2019 1 hour ago, ineedsnow said: I think we can pull off a Halloween storm.. Me too right around there, EPO dump, Nao dropping, PNA rising Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted October 23, 2019 Share Posted October 23, 2019 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: Seresto collars Yeah, we were on that train for a long time but when the old girl died from lymph tumors in Sept I pulled the Seresto off the young male dog. Maybe I go back to it next year but he’s yellow/blonde and they are easy to spot with a good check after walks. May and Oct are the worst, he just needs to get over not being in our bed those months! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted October 23, 2019 Share Posted October 23, 2019 Overnight rain is the best rain. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted October 23, 2019 Share Posted October 23, 2019 9 hours ago, dryslot said: So all the way to Dec 1st and beyond, Got it. Winter started Oct. 16th 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted October 23, 2019 Share Posted October 23, 2019 9 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said: Cold end Oct/early Nov but the flow is so screamin’ fast nothing can happen Perfect ! Zactly what everyone wants At least our rain events will be progressive then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 23, 2019 Share Posted October 23, 2019 Nice torch on the euro. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted October 23, 2019 Share Posted October 23, 2019 18 minutes ago, dendrite said: Nice torch on the euro. Good 60’s sound grrrreat 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted October 23, 2019 Share Posted October 23, 2019 Pouring rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 23, 2019 Share Posted October 23, 2019 Given radar being down, I'm not sure if any more rain is en route. For now, .64". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 23, 2019 Share Posted October 23, 2019 1 hour ago, dendrite said: Nice torch on the euro. Very mild pattern presented, so much for the late October cool down. Not that it matters for winter prospects given we're still well over a month away from wintry threats. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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