MaineJayhawk Posted October 22, 2019 Share Posted October 22, 2019 22 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Jeez I thought the weeklies were decent? AWATT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 22, 2019 Share Posted October 22, 2019 14 minutes ago, MaineJayhawk said: AWATT Maybe age getting to Steve? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 22, 2019 Share Posted October 22, 2019 Just now, CoastalWx said: Maybe age getting to Steve? I have no clue what you saw but I was looking at the time when it counts not early mid Nov when it’s 35 and rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 22, 2019 Share Posted October 22, 2019 November to December looks mighty toasty, pretty much a continuation of the -PNA pattern with cold west, warm east. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 22, 2019 Share Posted October 22, 2019 2 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: November to December looks mighty toasty, pretty much a continuation of the -PNA pattern with cold west, warm east. Looks zonal to me 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 22, 2019 Share Posted October 22, 2019 Week 5 and 6 are downright voodoo. I looked at H5 through week 4. Week 3 had a -EPO, weak East -NAO and a weak SE ridge. Week 4 has a massive cold pocket in Canada. However, we all know how bad even week 3 and 4 can be. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 22, 2019 Share Posted October 22, 2019 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: Week 5 and 6 are downright voodoo. I looked at H5 through week 4. Week 3 had a -EPO, weak East -NAO and a weak SE ridge. Week 4 has a massive cold pocket in Canada. However, we all know how bad even week 3 and 4 can be. Enjoy your cold November rain Axl, you said weeklies look decent without caveats. Only thing old age has slowed me in is beating your ass for that comment lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted October 22, 2019 Share Posted October 22, 2019 looks like a mild one for the extended. not a good start to winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 22, 2019 Share Posted October 22, 2019 3 hours ago, SnoSki14 said: November to December looks mighty toasty, pretty much a continuation of the -PNA pattern with cold west, warm east. Dude your trolling is getting old 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 22, 2019 Share Posted October 22, 2019 5 hours ago, Ginx snewx said: Enjoy your cold November rain Axl, you said weeklies look decent without caveats. Only thing old age has slowed me in is beating your ass for that comment lol They did look decent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted October 22, 2019 Share Posted October 22, 2019 Meanwhile, count on this: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 22, 2019 Share Posted October 22, 2019 Man I got to tell you I really like this app called Thermometer for Android. All models and layers. Just learning it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 22, 2019 Share Posted October 22, 2019 6 hours ago, Snow88 said: Dude your trolling is getting old But am I wrong though? Bc there's nothing to suggest the opposite right now. It might just be slightly AN instead of a full on torch. The -EPO will help with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted October 22, 2019 Share Posted October 22, 2019 7 hours ago, Snow88 said: Dude your trolling is getting old Take a look at the pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 22, 2019 Share Posted October 22, 2019 13 hours ago, powderfreak said: Just saw the dew points on Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.... anyone re-installing in SE New England? Nice little 8-hour shot of humidity for some. Good time to save on heating bills though. 2 in every 5 octobers will have a south swash misty DP event that's warm ...usually ends with a ribbon echo squall sinuously wobbling it's way east out of NYS ..after which the wind goes light in a lag ... until the next morning diurnal mixing gets the CAA deeper/more involved. It'd probably be 64/62 with gray streets .. periodic light showers before the squall arrives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 22, 2019 Share Posted October 22, 2019 Something needs to be done with either the NAM, GFS, or both...particularly with the MOS outputs b/c this is absolutely ridiculous...every stupid freaking fall and spring there are always these large...very large major differences between the two with regards to high and low temperatures...I mean huge...in some cases like 10-15F differences...RIDICULOUS. Now I know there are other methods and means for forecasting highs and lows...that's not the point here...can't do that when you forecast for a large number of cities. SOMEONE NEEDS TO DO SOMETHING. Now I can understand when there is a frontal boundary and there are timing differences between the models, but in many cases THERE ARE NO FRONTS. What i derive is the NAM under-mixes and GFS over-mixes...FIX IT 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted October 22, 2019 Share Posted October 22, 2019 Thursday looking like a play hooky from work day. Bluebird. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted October 22, 2019 Share Posted October 22, 2019 16 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Something needs to be done with either the NAM, GFS, or both...particularly with the MOS outputs b/c this is absolutely ridiculous...every stupid freaking fall and spring there are always these large...very large major differences between the two with regards to high and low temperatures...I mean huge...in some cases like 10-15F differences...RIDICULOUS. Now I know there are other methods and means for forecasting highs and lows...that's not the point here...can't do that when you forecast for a large number of cities. SOMEONE NEEDS TO DO SOMETHING. Now I can understand when there is a frontal boundary and there are timing differences between the models, but in many cases THERE ARE NO FRONTS. What i derive is the NAM under-mixes and GFS over-mixes...FIX IT I completely agree. The issue also exists during the summer and winter. And it should have been fixed prior to the "new and improved" GFS being released. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 22, 2019 Share Posted October 22, 2019 Well ... the "what" needs to be done is textured. Like, for starters, either one doing it right. That would serve as a significant improvement. By virtue of the fact that they are closer to correct at all, they'll just end up similar - 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 22, 2019 Share Posted October 22, 2019 Lots of troughs in AK as we head into Novie but there is ridging off the western coastline so could be back and forth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 22, 2019 Share Posted October 22, 2019 Looks like a soaker up here the next two days, Looking at the end of Oct into the first part of Nov, It looks to be heading on the cooler side over the Northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 22, 2019 Share Posted October 22, 2019 13 hours ago, Dr. Dews said: looks like a mild one for the extended. not a good start to winter. So all the way to Dec 1st and beyond, Got it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted October 22, 2019 Share Posted October 22, 2019 I think there is a small window for some possible wintery action just after Halloween. Models have been tossing around that idea every odd run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 22, 2019 Share Posted October 22, 2019 6 hours ago, weatherwiz said: Something needs to be done with either the NAM, GFS, or both...particularly with the MOS outputs b/c this is absolutely ridiculous...every stupid freaking fall and spring there are always these large...very large major differences between the two with regards to high and low temperatures...I mean huge...in some cases like 10-15F differences...RIDICULOUS. Now I know there are other methods and means for forecasting highs and lows...that's not the point here...can't do that when you forecast for a large number of cities. SOMEONE NEEDS TO DO SOMETHING. Now I can understand when there is a frontal boundary and there are timing differences between the models, but in many cases THERE ARE NO FRONTS. What i derive is the NAM under-mixes and GFS over-mixes...FIX IT Well they are both going away in the near future, so I wouldn't expect any significant changes to MOS. Any the NAM is on its last legs, as the future will be the FV3 and HRRR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 22, 2019 Share Posted October 22, 2019 2 hours ago, dryslot said: So all the way to Dec 1st and beyond, Got it. Can not for the life of me wrap my mind around why some folks get so worked up over sensible fall weather and perceived implications with regard to winter. I'm not there yet....oh, no....its 60 and sunny, as opposed to 48 and rainy...yikes! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 22, 2019 Share Posted October 22, 2019 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Can not for the life of me wrap my mind around why some folks get so worked up over sensible fall weather and perceived implications with regard to winter. I'm not there yet....oh, no....its 60 and sunny, as opposed to 48 and rainy...yikes! And the Cutters mind you, The cutters in October!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 22, 2019 Share Posted October 22, 2019 Just now, dryslot said: And the Cutters mind you, The cutters in October!!! 100 shades of boring....paths to engagement are scarce for me for another month or so.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 22, 2019 Share Posted October 22, 2019 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: 100 shades of boring....paths to engagement are scarce for me for another month or so.. My interest starts to peak as soon as hunting season starts for winter, Its 11/2 this year and the 12z EPS does not look that warm the first week of Nov. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 22, 2019 Share Posted October 22, 2019 17 minutes ago, dryslot said: My interest starts to peak as soon as hunting season starts for winter, Its 11/2 this year and the 12z EPS does not look that warm the first week of Nov. That’s a colder run including nearly winter cold around d10. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 22, 2019 Share Posted October 22, 2019 34 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: 100 shades of boring....paths to engagement are scarce for me for another month or so.. I would rather 60 and sun until Tday. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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