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October 2019 Weather Discussion


HoarfrostHubb
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1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Week 5 and 6 are downright voodoo. I looked at H5 through week 4. Week 3 had a -EPO, weak East -NAO and a weak SE ridge. Week 4 has a massive cold pocket in Canada.  However, we all know how bad even week 3 and 4 can be.

Enjoy your cold November rain Axl, you said weeklies look decent without caveats. Only thing old age has slowed me in is beating your ass for that comment lol

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13 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Just saw the dew points on Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.... anyone re-installing in SE New England?

Nice little 8-hour shot of humidity for some.  Good time to save on heating bills though.

ecmwf-neng-dew2m_f-1824800.thumb.png.ec260ea43e78d7b11fa3eb294348870e.png

 

2 in every 5 octobers will have a south swash misty DP event that's warm ...usually ends with a ribbon echo squall sinuously wobbling it's way east out of NYS ..after which the wind goes light in a lag ... until the next morning diurnal mixing gets the CAA deeper/more involved.  It'd probably be 64/62 with gray streets .. periodic light showers before the squall arrives.  

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Something needs to be done with either the NAM, GFS, or both...particularly with the MOS outputs b/c this is absolutely ridiculous...every stupid freaking fall and spring there are always these large...very large major differences between the two with regards to high and low temperatures...I mean huge...in some cases like 10-15F differences...RIDICULOUS. Now I know there are other methods and means for forecasting highs and lows...that's not the point here...can't do that when you forecast for a large number of cities. SOMEONE NEEDS TO DO SOMETHING. Now I can understand when there is a frontal boundary and there are timing differences between the models, but in many cases THERE ARE NO FRONTS. What i derive is the NAM under-mixes and GFS over-mixes...FIX IT 

 

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16 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Something needs to be done with either the NAM, GFS, or both...particularly with the MOS outputs b/c this is absolutely ridiculous...every stupid freaking fall and spring there are always these large...very large major differences between the two with regards to high and low temperatures...I mean huge...in some cases like 10-15F differences...RIDICULOUS. Now I know there are other methods and means for forecasting highs and lows...that's not the point here...can't do that when you forecast for a large number of cities. SOMEONE NEEDS TO DO SOMETHING. Now I can understand when there is a frontal boundary and there are timing differences between the models, but in many cases THERE ARE NO FRONTS. What i derive is the NAM under-mixes and GFS over-mixes...FIX IT 

 

I completely agree. The issue also exists during the summer and winter. And it should have been fixed prior to the "new and improved" GFS being released. 

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6 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

Something needs to be done with either the NAM, GFS, or both...particularly with the MOS outputs b/c this is absolutely ridiculous...every stupid freaking fall and spring there are always these large...very large major differences between the two with regards to high and low temperatures...I mean huge...in some cases like 10-15F differences...RIDICULOUS. Now I know there are other methods and means for forecasting highs and lows...that's not the point here...can't do that when you forecast for a large number of cities. SOMEONE NEEDS TO DO SOMETHING. Now I can understand when there is a frontal boundary and there are timing differences between the models, but in many cases THERE ARE NO FRONTS. What i derive is the NAM under-mixes and GFS over-mixes...FIX IT 

Well they are both going away in the near future, so I wouldn't expect any significant changes to MOS. Any the NAM is on its last legs, as the future will be the FV3 and HRRR. 

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2 hours ago, dryslot said:

So all the way to Dec 1st and beyond, Got it.

Can not for the life of me wrap my mind around why some folks get so worked up over sensible fall weather and perceived implications with regard to winter.

I'm not there yet....oh, no....its 60 and sunny, as opposed to 48 and rainy...yikes!

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1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Can not for the life of me wrap my mind around why some folks get so worked up over sensible fall weather and perceived implications with regard to winter.

I'm not there yet....oh, no....its 60 and sunny, as opposed to 48 and rainy...yikes!

And the Cutters mind you, The cutters in October!!!

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Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

100 shades of boring....paths to engagement are scarce for me for another month or so..

My interest starts to peak as soon as hunting season starts for winter, Its 11/2 this year and the 12z EPS does not look that warm the first week of Nov.

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