Baroclinic Zone Posted October 21, 2019 Share Posted October 21, 2019 3 hours ago, dendrite said: A solid trace at BOS and TAN. Solid .02" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 21, 2019 Share Posted October 21, 2019 For shear love of all natural wonders this f'n thing should transcend any forlorn sense in "dystopiancentricity" ... It should be so awesome as to transfix the appreciator, regardless of where it occurs. Buut alas, something tells me the insanity of this pass-time/hobby/or pursuit, or whatever euphemism we use to image this as not being the utter lunacy it is, knows no bounds; there are those among us that would still grouse because we are not parking this society stymieing juggernaut on ISP ... If you are of this latter ilk ( which I am... ), just a soup con of conciliation in the notion that this is the Plain's version of the dreaded D8 monster - so in like fashion, they should end up 80 F when that extended time arrives ... and the sad trumpet heralds Maud's song: for all the saddest words of tongue or pen, there are none sadder than these ... 'what might have been!' ... Seriously though, this thing reminds me in the run-up charts as the "Cleveland Superbomb" Jan 25-27th 1978, only 2K kM west - 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 21, 2019 Share Posted October 21, 2019 If anyone is interested... the difference between the GFS and Euro operationals wrt to this GGEM solution above ... The GFS brings the uber potency of the N-stream ( no doubt, imparted south by the spatial-temporal presaging EPO ) on a more SE trajectory through western Canada, as opposed to the GGEM that plunged that almost due south .. such that phases ( with unlikely proficiency of course ...) with exquisite above 90th percentile mechanical efficiency ...almost zero entropy ( wow! ) What all model agree upon is that southern component quasi-cut-off SW vortex ... as is shown here in the Euro for the same time. However, additionally differing in this Euro depiction, the N-stream is yet even flatter than the GFS ...smearing out and almost inconsequential through southern Canada.... One thing that I want to stress ... as was the case yesterday and the day before ...etc, as this period of post -EPO forcing on N/A's pattern began to emerge ... this is not a warm pattern for our region, despite any focus that may be drawn to the impressive ridging over the SE and adjacent SW Atlantic Basin. The confluence in Canada is extreme ... as can clearly be seen in the Euro, but is also evidence in the other models... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 21, 2019 Share Posted October 21, 2019 22 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: For shear love of all natural wonders this f'n thing should transcend any forlorn sense in "dystopiancentricity" ... It should be so awesome as to transfix the appreciator, regardless of where it occurs. Buut alas, something tells me the insanity of this pass-time/hobby/or pursuit, or whatever euphemism we use to image this as not being the utter lunacy it is, knows no bounds; there are those among us that would still grouse because we are not parking this society stymieing juggernaut on ISP ... If you are of this latter ilk ( which I am... ), just a soup con of conciliation in the notion that this is the Plain's version of the dreaded D8 monster - so in like fashion, they should end up 80 F when that extended time arrives ... and the sad trumpet heralds Maud's song: for all the saddest words of tongue or pen, there are none sadder than these ... 'what might have been!' ... Seriously though, this thing reminds me in the run-up charts as the "Cleveland Superbomb" Jan 25-27th 1978, only 2K kM west - Looks grinch like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted October 21, 2019 Share Posted October 21, 2019 what a cutter, hope it holds. 966mb on the gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted October 21, 2019 Share Posted October 21, 2019 Jeezus that is horrid, hope it isn't a prelude to the winter pattern setting up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 21, 2019 Share Posted October 21, 2019 4 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Globals ftw. Like we said epic fail in the Mid Atlantic NJ NY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 21, 2019 Share Posted October 21, 2019 57 minutes ago, #NoPoles said: Jeezus that is horrid, hope it isn't a prelude to the winter pattern setting up the purpose of that run-down ( just in case .. .) has no bearing on that... There may be those out there that appreciate the model analysis. Truth be told, it is not physically impossible what we see there in that unlikely ( however so... ) GGEM solution. Personally? I'd be all for seeing that anywhere on the Earth... That's fantastic - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted October 21, 2019 Share Posted October 21, 2019 Just now, Typhoon Tip said: the purpose of that run-down ( just in case .. .) has no bearing on that... There may be those out there that appreciate the model analysis. Truth be told, it is not physically impossible what we see there in that unlikely ( however so... ) GGEM solution. Personally? I'd be all for seeing that anywhere on the Earth... That's fantastic - Oh, meteorologically speaking, If that unfolds, I can't wait to witness the evolution. Speaking as weenie, it better not keep cutting repeatedly throughout the winter... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 21, 2019 Share Posted October 21, 2019 2 minutes ago, #NoPoles said: Oh, meteorologically speaking, If that unfolds, I can't wait to witness the evolution. Speaking as weenie, it better not keep cutting repeatedly throughout the winter... Ha ha ...tru dhat! Yeah, as a winter enthusiast, one might be simultaneously share in frustration and amazement should such ordeals verify as repeating phenomenon. In 1995 ... there was a two to three week intermission before Act II commenced and added 1/3 - to date- over top to really bring the seasonal averages to historic levels. That intermission was brutal - despite all virtues of fairness. It almost made it worse that the fist 45 days of winter were so prolific perhaps. We had some 36 to 40" of multi-storm snow pack. I remember it having textural layers.. never had seen that impression before. Usually, there's mangled pattern correction melting in between successive events enough that previous snow fall all tend to blend into a sub-straight with the only the more recent snowfall identifiable on top? - if one can imagine what I'm saying... But by mid January 1996 that incredible season, the snow pack out 30 mi W of Boston as the crow flies ..there were like 6 or 7 layers from different snow types ...almost like looking at an avalanche survey/assessment team's cut-out profile. Then ... the cutters kicked in.. The pattern retrograde and/or progressed, either way, but it was pretty much diametrically opposite storm track, going form zero mid-continental cyclones to zero chance of coastals and 100% chance of MS-Lakes transits. It was that cut and dry... well, "wet" is more like it. We ended up with a couple of Lakes bombs that swatched 50 F DP to Caribou Maine... Man, I really...I was I think a Junior in college then...I remember thinking as we were entering that period of late Jan into Feb ( which was well modeled - in fact, ...that was interesting about that year. It was extraordinarily well-modeled with individual scoring exception regardless of either a particular model's preexisting skill, or just the primordial nature of the technology compared to today; a time in which - ironically - we can't seem to sacrifice enough virgins to find... ), how with a starting of nearly 40" on the level, we'd survive it as snow-pack enthusiast. Nope. All flat open fields and knolls ...basically, where there were no man-attributed snow banks, were frozen Earth with water running off when the last cutter skirted through Minnesota .. DPs were nearing 60... 60! With southerly winds gusting to 50 mph whirring white noise through the barren tree canopy. One more cutter like that and we'd a-been pushing up crokus shoots. As it were... the cold that came flooding across the country on the backside of that big system ...as well, the system its self probably contributing in the governing change, both heralded a refresh that was impressive. And it snowed a foot in ~ mid February... We never did attain the 36 to 40," ...but we did on a couple of occasions flirt with 18" before settling... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJOatleast7 Posted October 21, 2019 Share Posted October 21, 2019 1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said: Ha ha ...tru dhat! Yeah, as a winter enthusiast, one might be simultaneously share in frustration and amazement should such ordeals verify as repeating phenomenon. In 1995 ... there was a two to three week intermission before Act II commenced and added 1/3 - to date- over top to really bring the seasonal averages to historic levels. That intermission was brutal - despite all virtues of fairness. It almost made it worse that the fist 45 days of winter were so prolific perhaps. We had some 36 to 40" of multi-storm snow pack. I remember it having textural layers.. never had seen that impression before. Usually, there's mangled pattern correction melting in between successive events enough that previous snow fall all tend to blend into a sub-straight with the only the more recent snowfall identifiable on top? - if one can imagine what I'm saying... But by mid January 1996 that incredible season, the snow pack out 30 mi W of Boston as the crow flies ..there were like 6 or 7 layers from different snow types ...almost like looking at an avalanche survey/assessment team's cut-out profile. Then ... the cutters kicked in.. The pattern retrograde and/or progressed, either way, but it was pretty much diametrically opposite storm track, going form zero mid-continental cyclones to zero chance of coastals and 100% chance of MS-Lakes transits. It was that cut and dry... well, "wet" is more like it. We ended up with a couple of Lakes bombs that swatched 50 F DP to Caribou Maine... Man, I really...I was I think a Junior in college then...I remember thinking as we were entering that period of late Jan into Feb ( which was well modeled - in fact, ...that was interesting about that year. It was extraordinarily well-modeled with individual scoring exception regardless of either a particular model's preexisting skill, or just the primordial nature of the technology compared to today; a time in which - ironically - we can't seem to sacrifice enough virgins to find... ), how with a starting of nearly 40" on the level, we'd survive it as snow-pack enthusiast. Nope. All flat open fields and knolls ...basically, where there were no man-attributed snow banks, were frozen Earth with water running off when the last cutter skirted through Minnesota .. DPs were nearing 60... 60! With southerly winds gusting to 50 mph whirring white noise through the barren tree canopy. One more cutter like that and we'd a-been pushing up crokus shoots. As it were... the cold that came flooding across the country on the backside of that big system ...as well, the system its self probably contributing in the governing change, both heralded a refresh that was impressive. And it snowed a foot in ~ mid February... We never did attain the 36 to 40," ...but we did on a couple of occasions flirt with 18" before settling... It's one of the reasons we're not well acquainted with depth hoar...that kind of deep snowpack is never around long enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted October 21, 2019 Share Posted October 21, 2019 what a COC day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted October 21, 2019 Share Posted October 21, 2019 95-96 was the winter of whipsaw - great patterns followed by cutter sequences. 43" in Dec including 17.5" in the solstice storm (biggest snowfall of my 13 winters in Gardiner) followed by 10 days of AN temps and meh. Then 4 small-medium snows in early Jan (4" from the big blizz) bringing the pack to 28", followed by 3 cutters driving it down to just 5. Several Feb storms boosted depth to 20" followed by more cutters. March 7-8 saw a 15.8" dump, #3 for the Gardiner experience, but after mid-month the snow disappeared quickly. Next month brought 3 storms totaling 23.5", easily tops for April. Just under 140" for the winter, 30" above my 2nd snowiest there, but only 5th in SDDs. Much preferred 93-94 despite its having 50" less total snowfall. I like having significant pack (it's hereditary - my daughter once opined that the ground wasn't really snow-covered if the grass was still sticking up thru it) and 93-94 also featured more than twice the days with 10"+ as 95-96 and 3X the days with 20"+. Given recent winters, I anticipate more of the whipsaw than the consistent pack of 93-94 (or 86-87, 89-90.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted October 21, 2019 Share Posted October 21, 2019 14 minutes ago, Lava Rock said: what a COC day I’m leaving work early it’s so nice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 21, 2019 Share Posted October 21, 2019 Gfs has a wintry halloween Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 21, 2019 Share Posted October 21, 2019 3 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Gfs has a wintry halloween Meh.. few flakes maybe? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 21, 2019 Share Posted October 21, 2019 Just now, ineedsnow said: Meh.. few flakes maybe? A windy fropa to his fanny, very wintery like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 21, 2019 Share Posted October 21, 2019 And then Mowvember. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 21, 2019 Share Posted October 21, 2019 Both the GGEM and GFS abandoning the SW low ... vast continuity issues but we expect that given the time frames - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 21, 2019 Share Posted October 21, 2019 End result is an N-stream dominant pattern... dry and unseasonably cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 21, 2019 Share Posted October 21, 2019 48 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: And then Mowvember. I love that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 21, 2019 Share Posted October 21, 2019 11 minutes ago, powderfreak said: I love that one. I'll take Mowvember, Dewcember, Tanuary, Feverary and coast on into Morch and Napril. 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 21, 2019 Share Posted October 21, 2019 And that makes the Euro now too... It holds the trough spacing SW still more than others but not nearly as prodigiously, ejecting it prior to the extended range and actually ends up with a low amp +PNA with Lake cutter - The whole thing may be in flux though/pending future run cycles/trends, ...I'm not fully convinced we aren't just seeing transition season 'growing pains' in the models and to some lesser extent the weightier ensemble means. The EPS was always more progressive with that SW look - understandable in either facet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 21, 2019 Share Posted October 21, 2019 1 hour ago, powderfreak said: I love that one. Certainly was not one last year. Doesn't really look to start out that way either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 21, 2019 Share Posted October 21, 2019 That’s a massive tree in Dallas yikes 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BombsAway1288 Posted October 22, 2019 Share Posted October 22, 2019 15 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: That’s a massive tree in Dallas yikes Damage in Dallas was extensive but amazingly not deadly there. Think I saw it was an EF-3 which at night in a populated area, is a miracle nobody died there. Anybody have a radar shot or loop of it btw? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 22, 2019 Share Posted October 22, 2019 Kevin’s gonna melt down in Nov if weeklies have a clue. Slow start unlike last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 22, 2019 Share Posted October 22, 2019 Just saw the dew points on Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.... anyone re-installing in SE New England? Nice little 8-hour shot of humidity for some. Good time to save on heating bills though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted October 22, 2019 Share Posted October 22, 2019 6 hours ago, CoastalWx said: And then Mowvember. 3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Kevin’s gonna melt down in Nov if weeklies have a clue. Slow start unlike last year. You know it’s only going to take a few warm days before he says something like “It looks like Ginx and Scooter get exactly what they were wishing for. Winters shot. Brown and warm ally the way through!” 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 22, 2019 Share Posted October 22, 2019 Jeez I thought the weeklies were decent? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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