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October 2019 Weather Discussion


HoarfrostHubb
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6 hours ago, powderfreak said:

And up north, those winds brought snow to the picnic tables.

What an absolutely stunning day of blue skies and a high of 50F at MVL. 

Snow didn't melt above 3,000ft and I will say, looking up from town at a snow capped Mansfield certainly gets one in the mood for winter.

Already down to 36F here at 8pm.  Going to be a cold night.

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Any Live Cams for this mountain like Stratton does?

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1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

ORH -0.5, PVD, 0.5, BDL 1.3, BOS 1.8. 

Haven’t looked at any COOPs but ORH and BOS stand out. We know BOS issues, but anything supporting ORH?

ORH temps seem to follow mine pretty closely, maybe a degree or two warmer some days.   Similar elevation.     I know they don’t radiate well though so maybe their lows on rad days are too low?

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1 hour ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

ORH temps seem to follow mine pretty closely, maybe a degree or two warmer some days.   Similar elevation.     I know they don’t radiate well though so maybe their lows on rad days are too low?

Also spitballing but it seems like the BN temps this month occurred mainly in cool overcast/rainy days and in weak CAA in the wake of departing systems with breezes up.  Makes sense they'd overperform in that case compared to if we had a bunch of calm radiating nights with big fake cold anomalies.  Up until yesterday morning we hadn't had a frost at my house, which is a bit later than normal.  But it's not like it's been torchy for the most part either.

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Hmm.. not seeing 'boring,' tho ..that is a subjective term.  If we mean some sort of historic bomb unheralded in terror dimensions transcending corporeal sight and sound ..i.e, twilight zone hysteria for storm junkies, than perhaps.. But from for a Meteorologist - a citation that appears to apply to too few including my self  - there are aspects that are intriguing at least.

Namely, this:

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That A   ... is a huge modality in the PNA going from boring - ironically - to ...not boring; and B, one so amplified that it is actually weighting the EPO negative; which means that there is a multi-spatial domain ridge going on in the east Pacific.  ( A + B )/2 = a loud, implicit counter-balancing lowering heights downstream over north America. 

Now... yes, the -EPO onset can imply what the Euro operational version has been beady-eyed obsessing over, which is an "inside slider" tucking into the SW and throwing Venus down stream but... enters the NAO above.  Not so fast Euro.  Let's call that C ...as in "COLD"  ...that is a cold/suppression of heights over middle latitudes of eastern North America/implication there, and one that is not exactly poorly supported by the CDC's sister org/agency (Climate Prediction Center).  It's mop ended a bit heading into week two granted.   The most important aspect about C though is that it suppresses heights over eastern N/A; particularly when the index mass-balancing is situated over the western limb...which this appears to be.  That means, that the Euro operational runs throwing heights up down stream ...may actually be in confluence, and thus, high sprawl and colder thickness wedging under the height heights ...and we see that exact same thing synoptically depicted... 

There are other aspect too...such as the EPS is not nearly as "tucked" as the Euro, and may in fact be a better/safer course of lesser regret over a -4 SD height core over southern California!   The EPS is a straight up prelude to an ice-storm from the lakes/Ov to Ne regios... if it were not for that unfortunate(fortunate) aspect of it being Oct 29 through ~Nov 5.

I don't know... there may not be something to arouse excitement by tomorrow... but it is as though the the nearer horizon is set aglow in eerie light at 3 am signifying something may have happened, and we're awaiting the arrival of the p-wave's report. I'm not forecasting a winter storm here, but that's a risky look if one is planning on quiescence.

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