weatherwiz Posted October 18, 2019 Share Posted October 18, 2019 12 minutes ago, Dr. Dews said: Late 70's aerosmith couldn't be that strung out looking. There's no defined low level center at all that I see. That is certainly lacking. It was more just in jest how this season there have been a few others named which were complete garbage looking. Remember the one that was named and like 3 hours later dissipated LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted October 18, 2019 Share Posted October 18, 2019 5 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: That is certainly lacking. It was more just in jest how this season there have been a few others named which were complete garbage looking. Remember the one that was named and like 3 hours later dissipated LOL Yeah. If I just take a glance of the IR, it's better than at least 30% of the named naked swirls we see. The cpnvection is very deep and sustained. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 18, 2019 Share Posted October 18, 2019 Birthday flakes for Kev on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 18, 2019 Share Posted October 18, 2019 Just now, CoastalWx said: Birthday flakes for Kev on the GFS. dandruff? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 18, 2019 Share Posted October 18, 2019 mm... I'm not really moved by insidious black IR blotches ... I recall one of those in the 1990s that trekked into the eastern Caribbean that was like blowing a hole so deep into the tropopause with cloud tops pegged so far beyond the cold part of the scale that it ceased to exist - over a large area, too and persisted for two days. TPC has a 60 mph tropical storm nearing cane status ... until, a RECON finally gets in there and whaaaa.. They couldn't even close off a circulation. They report was like ...sorry man... this is an open wave. Ever since then a little voice in the internal monologue questions the vitality of a 'cyclone' when I'm basing it purely upon satellite inference. Ever notice also ...sometimes when there a dark convective blotches bombin' away on a loop for several hours, if/when it up and decays all at once...it seems to fold into its self in a cyclonic fashion? Yet, there may not actually be any air moving into much of anything in a cyclonic fashion... It just sort of implodes cyclonically signifying nothing - I've always thought that was interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 18, 2019 Share Posted October 18, 2019 This is the third day running that the teleconnectors based off the GFS ensembles have been signaling an early winter.. Heh.. yeah, subtle hyperbole there - sue me. But, the PNA is very robust in CDC and has been for a few days. That's a whopper mode change... -2 to +2 is a total of 4 SD and considering the spatial layout of the PNA domain, that's an awful lot of atmospheric mass change to thing that won't show up in the pattern somehow. But warm going to a cool one. The EPO is positive but neutralizes in tandem... I think that is because the PNA is so robust that it is overlapping the EPO a bit and weighting it down some. That's okay too - I've noticed plenty of times in the past, that these two indices seem to precede one another. A strong +PNA may become a -EPO and the PNA neutralizes... say. OR, the -EPO neutralizes, and the PNA rises... ( it's obvious why that behavior unfolds but it's too much for a phone screen) Meanwhile, the AO is going negative through the next two weeks. ...hmm, not sure, but... -AO/+PNA ain't zactly forcin' any sweaters off in late October/Novie 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 18, 2019 Share Posted October 18, 2019 27 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Birthday flakes for Kev on the GFS. It’s coming. Looks like 1-3” on that run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 18, 2019 Share Posted October 18, 2019 3 hours ago, dryslot said: After a smoking hot +3.2 July up here, The last 2 mos have been dead nuts normal and so is the first 18 days of Oct. I've been getting that vibe down this way, too ... particularly in the latter sense with October, without having looked at the means to date. This just has the look and feel of prototypical October. It is interesting to be now staring down the barrel of the American tele's all signaling a chance of a some decent colder departure in the last 10 days into Novie, because that would sort of buck that trend. But you know ...there's another school of thought there. May we have already been in a cooler than normal pattern - it's just a matter of relativity? Like, it took something to get us normal over the last 40 days or whatever it has been, something of an offset or compensating pattern to global warming warming warming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted October 18, 2019 Share Posted October 18, 2019 26 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: It’s coming. Looks like 1-3” on that run 1-3 flakes maybe.... wasn’t anything to write home about, rain or snow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 18, 2019 Share Posted October 18, 2019 Already in mid season form, Brett. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 18, 2019 Share Posted October 18, 2019 7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: I've been getting that vibe down this way, too ... particularly in the latter sense with October, without having looked at the means to date. This just has the look and feel of prototypical October. It is interesting to be now staring down the barrel of the American tele's all signaling a chance of a some decent colder departure in the last 10 days into Novie, because that would sort of buck that trend. But you know ...there's another school of thought there. May we have already been in a cooler than normal pattern - it's just a matter of relativity? Like, it took something to get us normal over the last 40 days or whatever it has been, something of an offset or compensating pattern to global warming warming warming I know up here is has been cooler overall outside of July, But down into SNE it looks like for the most part is has stayed above normal so there has been a temp gradient of sorts between NNE and SNE, Its interesting but don't know if that holds going forward as we start getting into a longer wave pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 18, 2019 Share Posted October 18, 2019 59 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Birthday flakes for Kev on the GFS. Ah ha, Now i know why he keeps mentioning 11/2, I hope it does on that day as well but not for that reason............... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted October 18, 2019 Share Posted October 18, 2019 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: Birthday flakes for Kev on the GFS. you know when Kev's bday is? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted October 18, 2019 Share Posted October 18, 2019 Quick mover with some cold involvement on euro days 8-9. Moving at ludicrous speed due to the Tippian Gradient. -NAO and +SE ridge at the same time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 18, 2019 Share Posted October 18, 2019 Plenty of cold air in Canada at the end of that Euro run... it's got the PNA ridge - but displaced west. Others have discussed that -EPO off-loads tend to be situated west .. I concur - if for no other reason, wave lengths are still lengthening so shorter is doable in that sloppy sense of it. But, I also think it is possible that the entire D8-10 Euro construct ends up lengthened/and or east by a time zone's rough width anyway - if for no other reason, ridging in the east has been correcting flatter and or briefer in this particular guidance routinely since august. There's kind of like multiple bias moving parts going on. But the unassailable fact is that tele's are in a descending AO with rising PNA through that period, so the "correction vector" is blue. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted October 18, 2019 Share Posted October 18, 2019 4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Plenty of cold air in Canada at the end of that Euro run... it's got the PNA ridge - but displaced west. Others have discussed that -EPO off-loads tend to be situated west .. I concur - if for no other reason, wave lengths are still lengthening so shorter is doable in that sloppy sense of it. But, I also think it is possible that the entire D8-10 Euro construct ends up lengthened/and or east by a time zone's rough width anyway - if for no other reason, ridging in the east has been correcting flatter and or briefer in this particular guidance routinely since august. There's kind of like multiple bias moving parts going on. But the unassailable fact is that tele's are in a descending AO with rising PNA through that period, so the "correction vector" is blue. A-yup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted October 18, 2019 Share Posted October 18, 2019 55 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said: you know when Kev's bday is? 11-2 or 3 I believe. Quintessential Scorpio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 18, 2019 Share Posted October 18, 2019 1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said: Plenty of cold air in Canada at the end of that Euro run... it's got the PNA ridge - but displaced west. Others have discussed that -EPO off-loads tend to be situated west .. I concur - if for no other reason, wave lengths are still lengthening so shorter is doable in that sloppy sense of it. But, I also think it is possible that the entire D8-10 Euro construct ends up lengthened/and or east by a time zone's rough width anyway - if for no other reason, ridging in the east has been correcting flatter and or briefer in this particular guidance routinely since august. There's kind of like multiple bias moving parts going on. But the unassailable fact is that tele's are in a descending AO with rising PNA through that period, so the "correction vector" is blue. GFS has looked better than the Euro lately in terms of the overall pattern. Euro keeps popping these anomalous eastern ridges in the face of strong blocking, a forecast +PNA and a developing -EPO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 18, 2019 Share Posted October 18, 2019 1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said: GFS has looked better than the Euro lately in terms of the overall pattern. Euro keeps popping these anomalous eastern ridges in the face of strong blocking, a forecast +PNA and a developing -EPO. Keep in mind ... -EPO does not really automatically connote an eastern U.S. trough.. particularly earlier in the year when the wave lengths are still not extended(ing) quite as far. That said ...even in the winter proper, a newly arriving -EPO often does dump cold down the spine of the Can Rockies and front range, that will come down into the intermountain west first before then spreading E/S .. ( look for Blue Norther in Ok/Tx ...). But...no pattern change is identical - so to speak... A -EPO ridge can pop and load cold and immediately decay and collapse as the blocking node slips south and merges with a +PNA and then that west bias may not be obviously seen. We're just talking idealized model here. The PNA is on the other hand, yeah... the Euro seems that it wants to do like a "west-based +PNA" if there can be such a thing. In the Euro run it's self, it's hard to really even see if the EPO is very negative or if the PNA is just so positive that it's overlapping the EPO domain and flipping the sign bootleg neggie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted October 18, 2019 Share Posted October 18, 2019 1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said: GFS has looked better than the Euro lately in terms of the overall pattern. Euro keeps popping these anomalous eastern ridges in the face of strong blocking, a forecast +PNA and a developing -EPO. I was thinking this yesterday looking at D8-10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 19, 2019 Share Posted October 19, 2019 0Z NAM came north a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted October 19, 2019 Share Posted October 19, 2019 Keep that mess nestor where it came from, well S E. No one wants it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 19, 2019 Share Posted October 19, 2019 14 hours ago, Bostonseminole said: you know when Kev's bday is? I can't remember when my wife's birthday is..... 33* at the moment. Coldest morning of the fall so far. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 19, 2019 Share Posted October 19, 2019 This looks to be a classic -PNA pattern where models are too quick to bring in the cooler air. Could be pretty warm towards end of month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 19, 2019 Share Posted October 19, 2019 11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: This looks to be a classic -PNA pattern where models are too quick to bring in the cooler air. Could be pretty warm towards end of month. Good its too early to even think about snow, especially snow that melts in a couple of hours. COC day today., first day below 30, 29.7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 19, 2019 Share Posted October 19, 2019 3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Good its too early to even think about snow, especially snow that melts in a couple of hours. COC day today., first day below 30, 29.7 38. here. Gonna have to wait until Novie to get below 32. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 19, 2019 Share Posted October 19, 2019 20 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: This looks to be a classic -PNA pattern where models are too quick to bring in the cooler air. Could be pretty warm towards end of month. Looks like a Nina pattern, definite gradient type look as well. Wouldn't be surprised to see those heights get squished out east if the blocking is strong enough. Warmth may be confined from Mid-Atlantic south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 19, 2019 Share Posted October 19, 2019 30 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: This looks to be a classic -PNA pattern where models are too quick to bring in the cooler air. Could be pretty warm towards end of month. Are you torching Helloween now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 19, 2019 Author Share Posted October 19, 2019 32F here for my low. We got colder two weeks ago for two straight mornings. But good for the bugs I hate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 19, 2019 Share Posted October 19, 2019 bottomed out at 32*. we take Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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