October 2019 Weather Discussion

[CoastalWx]

9 minutes ago, Whineminster said:

Exactly.

I get it...its fall and this is the weather we can expect, but it's just frustrating when a few hundred miles to the south is tanning on bow riders while sipping white claws enjoying the last throes of summer.  

Then maybe 1100' is not for you?

[Brian5671]

58 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Scary stuff with EEE related deaths in Westchester county and one in South Windsor CT. Drive down the highway and signs flashing advising to stay indoors dusk to dawn. What the hell is goings on around here.

a bit of hysteria.   You have more of a chance dying on the car ride to the store to buy bug spray that from EEE itself.

[Typhoon Tip]

I mentioned earlier in this thread ..even threw up a chart to demo, just how spring-like this is. It still is... 

That looks like an early May warm intrusion attempt where the models fail to ignite the overrunning convection that cuts southeast and basically erodes the heat back and busts the models too warm ..  Late April thru early June of the like -

Plus, the rad motion is plumb SE...It's not E ...which means the mid level steering isn't in any hurry to move the warm front thru - that's either an emerged permutation/correction that the models wouldn't have seen coming, or the models were just bad.   

In any case, we are not heading for 80 F with plumes of overrunning gunk shearing off warm intrusion in the low levels.  It's not like late May, when the sun sets after 8 pm so we have lots of solar time to make up for it, either.  

But we'll see...  if the warm front some how does get east of that axis of showery rains -

[dryslot]

38 minutes ago, Dr. Dews said:

No one really wants 45 and rain

 

35 minutes ago, Whineminster said:

Exactly.

I get it...its fall and this is the weather we can expect, but it's just frustrating when a few hundred miles to the south is tanning on bow riders while sipping white claws enjoying the last throes of summer.  

Actually its sounds like you don't, We all want it, That's what precedes us heading into winter, We don't go from HHH to Arctic cold...................

[Typhoon Tip]

I suppose a bit of quiescence is a good thing ... Sorry, but folks'll have to wait it out if they're dystopian-dopamine circuitry has become reliant upon the daily suggestion and/or specters of the modeling.  It's fascinating how those 'tools,' no different really than hammers and ratchets weighting down a tool chest, are used as cinema to trigger that.  

Which, let's face it... it's an aberrent behavior that's an emergent process of the Internet's transformative power of Humanity; probably in some ways one can logically analog and or outright couch it in with this iPhone/Android tech-related addiction stuff recently covered by 60-Mintues.  Fascinating topic about the e-zombieism of it.   

Anyway, there's a geo-political storm going on both home and abroad like we have not seen ... probably since the Berlin Wall was toppled - it's almost equal in magnitude ( but more apropos, this is another Nixon thing). In fact, much of what we are going through has roots to that fateful event.  Putin was internal intelligentcia in that era, and after the Soviet collapse... it is documented that his hatred and ultimately, 'blame,' has no bounds of sense of either righteousness, or the vengeance that grows from those soils.  It'll be fascinating reading for 3034 ...long after WWIII's dust has settled and safe zones from escaping the nuclear fallout have begun to finally stabilize anew.  

Anyway, this series of runs overnight is about as uninspired seasonality as the Terran atmosphere is capable of nailing down for early October.  Once we rid the continent of this immediate warm dome that the atmosphere threw least excuse imagined at for the sole intent of preventing warm air from getting east of the Hudson' ... the recent runs are offering days that are a completely normal, transitory apple picking weather.   Boring really is the best word for it.   I suppose it is a good thing that is the case, because now would not be a good time for Yellowstone to unlid its self with all this Global-duress going on ... to mention, the climate storm - that's not going away in the fairest of times.  

 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

43 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

a bit of hysteria.   You have more of a chance dying on the car ride to the store to buy bug spray that from EEE itself.

We should have a 0% chance dying by a damn mosquito (are in a 3rd world country?) but, that’s not the case. The climate is changing and we are seeing these small incremental problems increase and show up from time to time. As we are a re-active society, eventually simultaneous crap will hit the fan and cause big problems.

[Ginx snewx]

1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

The longer you roast the more dangerous these bug/mosquito migrations will get. 

There are consequences to this kind of atypical weather. It's not supposed to be south Florida at 42N in October.

Lol we had triple E when I was in my teens way back in the early 70s

[Ginx snewx]

6 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

We should have a 0% chance dying by a damn mosquito (are in a 3rd world country?) but, that’s not the case. The climate is changing and we are seeing these small incremental problems increase and show up from time to time. As we are a re-active society, eventually simultaneous crap will hit the fan and cause big problems.

Lol you do realize that EEE has been around for a very very long time. In fact it really is a New England thing 

Eastern equine encephalitis virus (EEEV) is a zoonotic alphavirus and arbovirus, and was first recognized in horses in 1831 in Massachusetts. The first confirmed human cases were identified in New England in 1938

[MaineJayhawk]

Climate change hype

[BrianW]

2 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

Imagine being in HHH for months on end with no ocean or cool clean lakes nearby. Dropping buckets of ice in your pool to keep it below 95 degrees. AC to AC all day all the time. Brutal summer and now fall for the interior SE. 

I have lived in many places including many years on the champlain islands in VT. I have been on the shoreline in Branford the last 6 years and love it. From an energy perspective the amount you save on heating and cooling  is insane. I am heating and cooling my entire house with 1 or 2 solar powered 12k btu mini splits while those in NNE are sucking down heating oil with 100k+ btu oil furnaces. 

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, MaineJayhawk said:

Climate change hype

There are obvious reason and examples to show how the climate is warming but using every little thing to put fear in the hearts is not helping the cause. I have to take the time to explain to my grandkids that no the world is not ending in 12 years but their are changes in our weather we need to adapt to. Scaring little kids pisses me off to no end.

[Ginx snewx]

2 minutes ago, BrianW said:

I have lived in many places including many years on the champlain islands in VT. I have been on the shoreline in Branford the last 6 years and love it. From an energy perspective the amount you save on heating and cooling  is insane. I am heating and cooling my entire house with 1 or 2 12k btu mini splits while those in NNE are sucking down heating oil with 100k+ btu oil furnaces. 

Nice,  now how much gas do you burn sitting in traffic 

[dryslot]

8 minutes ago, BrianW said:

I have lived in many places including many years on the champlain islands in VT. I have been on the shoreline in Branford the last 6 years and love it. From an energy perspective the amount you save on heating and cooling  is insane. I am heating and cooling my entire house with 1 or 2 solar powered 12k btu mini splits while those in NNE are sucking down heating oil with 100k+ btu oil furnaces. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Torch Today

[Typhoon Tip]

44 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Lol you do realize that EEE has been around for a very very long time. In fact it really is a New England thing 

Eastern equine encephalitis virus (EEEV) is a zoonotic alphavirus and arbovirus, and was first recognized in horses in 1831 in Massachusetts. The first confirmed human cases were identified in New England in 1938

Accept that this train of reasoning elides two critical points ( which are incontrovertible ...) 

...  exposure increases the probability of more infections

...  the warmer weather is particularly favorable for host species responsible for the the contagious vector of the disease, which leads inexorably to more exposure.

Neither of which were as problematic comparing 1831 "normalcy" of pathogenicity to today's climate, which is enhancing the latter.   

[tamarack]

1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

The longer you roast the more dangerous these bug/mosquito migrations will get. 

There are consequences to this kind of atypical weather. It's not supposed to be south Florida at 42N in October.

No doubt the climate is warming, but extremes are nothing new.  We had mid-upper 70s the 4th week of October at 47N in 1979.  (And missed the snowstorm 2 weeks earlier - too far north.)

[West Point, NY]

50 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Lol we had triple E when I was in my teens way back in the early 70s

Don't bring up factual history. Greta psychosis needs to rule the day. 

[BrianW]

Looks like SE CT is the hotspot. Anyone have any thoughts why?

 

 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

60F 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

20 minutes ago, West Mtn NY said:

Don't bring up factual history. Greta psychosis needs to rule the day. 

 I think the entire point was there are just increased incidences of it this year for whatever reason and the warm weather isn’t helping. 

 Not much to read into there. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

30 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Accept that this train of reasoning elides two critical points ( which are incontrovertible ...) 

...  exposure increases the probability of more infections

...  the warmer weather is particularly favorable for host species responsible for the the contagious vector of the disease, which leads inexorably to more exposure.

Neither of which were as problematic comparing 1831 "normalcy" of pathogenicity to today's climate, which is enhancing the latter.   

Correct, thanks for clarifying.

[ORH_wxman]

1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

We should have a 0% chance dying by a damn mosquito (are in a 3rd world country?) but, that’s not the case. The climate is changing and we are seeing these small incremental problems increase and show up from time to time. As we are a re-active society, eventually simultaneous crap will hit the fan and cause big problems.

We had outbreaks of EEE in SNE in 1938, 1955/1956, 1970, 1989, and 1996...we just never heard as much about them back then. Even more recently, there were outbreaks in 2012 and 2004-2005.

It's not really clear how CC makes it worse if at all. If everything is held constant with the lone exception of lengthening the summer season, then it would give a higher chance of getting bitten by an infected mosquito. But of course, not everything is held constant when it comes to CC. It has to be transmitted through birds first before a mosquito can bite an infected bird, and say if birds decline because of CC, then that reduces the chances of a mosquito carrying the virus. That's just one example of all the layers one has to go through before automatically saying CC = more EEE.

[BrianW]

6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

We had outbreaks of EEE in SNE in 1938, 1955/1956, 1970, 1989, and 1996...we just never heard as much about them back then. Even more recently, there were outbreaks in 2012 and 2004-2005.

It's not really clear how CC makes it worse if at all. If everything is held constant with the lone exception of lengthening the summer season, then it would give a higher chance of getting bitten by an infected mosquito. But of course, not everything is held constant when it comes to CC. It has to be transmitted through birds first before a mosquito can bite an infected bird, and say if birds decline because of CC, then that reduces the chances of a mosquito carrying the virus. That's just one example of all the layers one has to go through before automatically saying CC = more EEE.

I also think all the manmade stuff that allows standing water has a huge impact. Think of all the flat commerical roofs with water on them, highway drainage ditches, all the stuff around homes, etc. I was at a friends house recently and there were mosquitos everywhere along with dozens of buckets, cups etc full of  swimming larvae. This person's yard was a breeding ground for probably thousands of mosquitoes.

[CoastalWx]

The CC argument is more for the actual chance of being bitten due to longer times between freezes. But yeah, there are a ton of variables. Not to mention, if CC is to make an area drier in the summer...well now you have less standing water for mosquitoes to breed. 

[moneypitmike]

37 minutes ago, BrianW said:

Looks like SE CT is the hotspot. Anyone have any thoughts why?

 

 

 

Because

 

...  exposure increases the probability of more infections

...  the warmer weather is particularly favorable for host species responsible for the the contagious vector of the disease, which leads inexorably to more exposure.

 

And that's incontrovertible.  So there.

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The CC argument is more for the actual chance of being bitten due to longer times between freezes. But yeah, there are a ton of variables. Not to mention, if CC is to make an area drier in the summer...well now you have less standing water for mosquitoes to breed. 

Yep, there's a ton of variables...including the birds themselves like I mentioned. You can't get it unless a mosquito bites an infected bird first and then bites you (hence why the chances are astronomically low to begin with)....but all that stuff from land use, to how CC affects precip on a regional scale, to how it affects birds all plays a role.

It's why there should always be caution in attribution studies that have 2nd and 3rd order layered impacts. Something like straight temperature/heat waves is easy, but other stuff like EEE is really complicated. Hell, even actual weather like hurricanes is very complicated too. Can you imagine the fever pitch of articles and media talking about attribution if we got another 1938-1955 period for tropical cyclones on the east coast?

[Ginx snewx]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Accept that this train of reasoning elides two critical points ( which are incontrovertible ...) 

...  exposure increases the probability of more infections

...  the warmer weather is particularly favorable for host species responsible for the the contagious vector of the disease, which leads inexorably to more exposure.

Neither of which were as problematic comparing 1831 "normalcy" of pathogenicity to today's climate, which is enhancing the latter.   

Or maybe more people and more Mosquito trapping 

[Torch Tiger]

11 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

 

Because

 

...  exposure increases the probability of more infections

...  the warmer weather is particularly favorable for host species responsible for the the contagious vector of the disease, which leads inexorably to more exposure.

 

And that's incontrovertible.  So there.

greta psychosis and incontrovertible at that.

[Ginx snewx]

32 minutes ago, BrianW said:

I also think all the manmade stuff that allows standing water has a huge impact. Think of all the flat commerical roofs with water on them, highway drainage ditches, all the stuff around homes, etc. I was at a friends house recently and there were mosquitos everywhere along with dozens of buckets, cups etc full of  swimming larvae. This person's yard was a breeding ground for probably thousands of mosquitoes.

Yes there are so so many variables,  anyone trying to pin it on CC is just throwing a dart. More people,  more impervious surfaces, more opportunities for breeding.  SE CT is a hot spot because of lots of rain this summer 

[weathafella]

It’s ironic that bears, big cats, bulls, and other big animals scare people a lot more world wide vs tiny mosquitoes which can cause malaria and other diseases...