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October 2019 Weather Discussion


HoarfrostHubb
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Hard to know if this is just and artifact of the GFS being the GFS ... but it is true - chilly air masses predominating the end frames of the last many run of the operational version actually. Frankly ...the Euro's been persistently trying to cool N/A off and has -20 C at 850 by Day-la-la range over western JB on the 00z/somewhat so on the 12z isn't exactly arguing with that idea either. It may be worth noting that the EPS had been flagging slightly amplified +PNAP look.  The GFS teleconnectors have been doing the typical transition season two step and have been hard to glean a signal out of, but the EPS "might" just be slipping out in time.  The MJO/recurve cyclones are not hurting either.

interesting.  This 18z run is veritable winter west pattern beyond D7 really ..  Open wave flow type though, perhaps favored for reasons I'm getting sick of discussing but... having perpetually reloading sub 540 dm thickness spread out over Canad and knifing synoptically into ORD and feeding western Ontario blue bombs on a periodic scheduling is winter either way -

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Just saw this.  Perfect timing!

MAJOR NEWS FROM KBOX coming up. Radar to be shutdown for technical upgrades...starting tomorrow..

NOUS41 KBOX 101807
PNSBOX
CTZ002>004-MAZ002>024-026-RIZ001>008-171715-

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
207 PM EDT THU OCT 10 2019

...THE TAUNTON /KBOX/ WSR-88D RADAR WILL BE OFFLINE FOR
TRANSMITTER REFURBISHMENT FROM OCTOBER 15TH TO 19TH...

BEGINNING ON TUESDAY, OCTOBER 15, THE KBOX WSR-88D RADAR OPERATED
BY THE NOAA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORTON, MA WILL BE DOWN
FOR APPROXIMATELY 5 DAYS FOR THE REFURBISHMENT OF THE
TRANSMITTER. ALTHOUGH THE FORM, FIT, AND FUNCTION OF THE
TRANSMITTER WILL REMAIN THE SAME, OLD BREAKERS AND CABLES ORIGINAL
TO THE RADAR WILL BE REPLACED WITH MODERN FUSES AND NEW CABLES.
THIS WILL HELP KEEP THE 20-YEAR-OLD RADAR OPERATING SMOOTHLY FOR
ANOTHER 20 YEARS.

THE TRANSMITTER UPDATE IS THE SECOND MAJOR PROJECT OF THE NEXRAD
SERVICE LIFE EXTENSION PROGRAM, A SERIES OF UPGRADES AND
REPLACEMENTS THAT WILL KEEP OUR NATION'S RADARS VIABLE INTO THE
2030S. NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE, THE UNITED STATES AIR
FORCE, AND THE FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION ARE INVESTING $150
MILLION IN THE 7-YEAR PROGRAM. THE FIRST PROJECT WAS THE
INSTALLATION OF A NEW SIGNAL PROCESSOR. THE TWO REMAINING PROJECTS
ARE THE REFURBISHMENT OF THE PEDESTAL AN EQUIPMENT SHELTERS. THE
SERVICE LIFE EXTENSION PROGRAM WILL BE COMPLETED IN 2022.

DURING THE DOWNTIME, ADJACENT RADARS INCLUDE: ALBANY, NY (KENX),
UPTON, NY (KOXK), GRAY, ME (KGYX). FOR DIRECT ACCESS TO ANY OF
THESE SURROUNDING RADAR SITES, GO TO THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGE:
HTTPS://RADAR.WEATHER.GOV/INDEX.HTM

THE KBOX WSR-88D IS PART OF A NETWORK OF 159 OPERATIONAL RADARS.
THE RADAR OPERATIONS CENTER IN NORMAN, OKLAHOMA PROVIDES LIFECYCLE
MANAGEMENT AND SUPPORT FOR ALL WSR-88DS.

FOR A RADAR MOSAIC LOOP OF THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES, GO TO:
HTTPS://RADAR.WEATHER.GOV/RIDGE/CONUS/NORTHEAST_LOOP.PHP

THE LATEST UPDATES FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE'S
BOSTON/NORTON FORECAST OFFICE CAN BE FOUND AT:

WEBPAGE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOSTON

FACEBOOK AT WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.BOSTON.GOV

TWITTER AT @NWSBOSTON

FOR MORE INFORMATION, CONTACT:

ANDY NASH, METEOROLOGIST IN CHARGE
[email protected]
508-622-3250 EXT. 222

GLENN FIELD, WARNING COORDINATION METEOROLOGIST
[email protected]
508-622-3250 EXT. 223

$$

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2 hours ago, weathafella said:

I don’t  think that’s the one.  Will-help!

Yes it is that one. It was a big ocean storm that sort of stalled and then backed up after cold air filtered in and gave eastern areas some snow. Kevin wouldn't have gotten any in that system. I remember Megan and I drove up to the summit of blue hill in that to check out the snow. They had a couple inches at the top. 

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1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

End of the month definitely getting a little amped with what appears to be a strong trough signal in the east. I'm about to lock in October snow and a dud winter.

The signals are growing for a trough in the east for Halloween week. I wouldn't be shocked to see some areas get snow.

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Scott's right - .. . not about the sarcasm per se/necessarily, no .. but, this idea of a cold end October ( and even snow not ruled out ...) has been there for a over a week.  

What interesting is that this look was there more coherently then,... was all but lost, but now returned(s)..  We'll see where it goes but I have hypothesis why this has happened so often over the last 20 years with these early conducive ( enough ) cold shots.  And, seeing the pattern more than less modulate toward this yet again, in that time range, is not - or should not really be surprising. 

There is some precedence for it not portending a good winter, too.  Because the reason for these early cold shots can also be more independent of the longer-termed solidfied(ing) winter patterns whenever those get around to kicking into gear.  Indepedent = 'it can go either way'

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