Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,609
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    NH8550
    Newest Member
    NH8550
    Joined

October 2019 Weather Discussion


HoarfrostHubb
 Share

Recommended Posts

This will also have significant impact on their agricultural network and to ranchers (as stated by the NWS)...that may not seem significant to those of us who just go the local store but that is major news for them. Again...this isn't Thanksgiving and they're prepared. 

there has only been ONE earlier significant storm than this on record (it appears anyways) and it caused significant problems and this was only a few decades ago. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

11 minutes ago, MetHerb said:

lol...you said that people in ND know how to handle winter weather.  I replied by saying that so do people in New England.  Is that clear enough?

They do as do we but we deal with much more obstruction ie more difficult infrastructure, population, and geography (to start) so such a storm would have a significantly higher impact for us...no matter how well we prepare. Comparing us to them is silly. Is that clear enough?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

They do as do we but we deal with much more obstruction ie more difficult infrastructure, population, and geography (to start) so such a storm would have a significantly higher impact for us...no matter how well we prepare. Comparing us to them is silly. Is that clear enough?

Not really.  They still have places where 200K+ people live that will be impacted.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Welp, Weekend freeze was not enough to get rid of the yellow jackets because they are out in force today. The question is how long do we wait until the next freeze?

One of them got my wife this morning and not in a very good spot....................:lol:

  • Confused 1
  • Sad 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

59 minutes ago, MetHerb said:

Not really.  They still have places where 200K+ people live that will be impacted.  

No, they don’t. Most populated is Fargo at 105k which may miss out on the biggest totals anyway. Maybe if you combine all the people in END that will have difficulty by sleeping in and not having to go into work, you may reach 200k. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Welp, Weekend freeze was not enough to get rid of the yellow jackets because they are out in force today. The question is how long do we wait until the next freeze?

Got nailed by one of those critter near the dam at Flagstaff Lake, where they probably had low 20s last week.  Eleven of us standing near the shore in a fresh breeze, and the little beast hit and stung immediately.  Saw a 2nd one crawling stupidly on the ground later.  No one else had any issues.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

31 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Got nailed by one of those critter near the dam at Flagstaff Lake, where they probably had low 20s last week.  Eleven of us standing near the shore in a fresh breeze, and the little beast hit and stung immediately.  Saw a 2nd one crawling stupidly on the ground later.  No one else had any issues.

I've said it before: it's like they know the end is coming and just want to go out kamikaze style. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Not sure what the temperatures are like so far this month but ... anyone else get the sense this month so far and in the models is pretty much a paragon October ?

The irony there is that we are experiencing epitome month 10 when the expense of the freak blizzards west and expanded Hadley cell exciting weird multi-phasic cyclone types pretty much in every direction SE of Long Island over the west Atlantic... both of which are pretty fantastic SD deals...

The one over the Atlantic is less appreciated and under the radar in terms of significance but that's a highly unusual look.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

This will also have significant impact on their agricultural network and to ranchers (as stated by the NWS)...that may not seem significant to those of us who just go the local store but that is major news for them. Again...this isn't Thanksgiving and they're prepared. 

there has only been ONE earlier significant storm than this on record (it appears anyways) and it caused significant problems and this was only a few decades ago. 

Hey I'm with you... if I'm going to watch something that isn't happening in my backyard, a blizzard will win over heavy rain.  

But if models had 3-6" of rainfall for my backyard at this type of lead time, that's the only thing I'm paying attention to.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Today was about damn near perfect weather for wandering in the mountains. 

High of 62F off a low of 42F in the valley, but calm wind even at elevation made the upper 40s at the picnic tables feel pretty good. 

The sunshine and clarity in the air though was spectacular. 

Already down to 43F at 8pm, should see another frost in the morning, but the growing season is already done anyway.

72750250_10103894474129490_6838398099208

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 hours ago, MetHerb said:

Since when does population density rule over weather?

I know thats a US map but the weather also doesn't stop at the border. Winnipeg Manitoba has a Metro of 850,000k. Just to the west (70 miles) Brandon Manitoba has a population of 60K. Fargo has 120K and Grand Forks 60K. 

Though a lot of you guys arent wrong with shrugging the shoulders about it haha. Here in Toronto it made the news but more of "wow, that sucks that Manitoba is going to get a blizzard. They get that in October though right...in other news" 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

No, they don’t. Most populated is Fargo at 105k which may miss out on the biggest totals anyway. Maybe if you combine all the people in END that will have difficulty by sleeping in and not having to go into work, you may reach 200k. 

Yes they do.  You might want to look at the Fargo metro area.  It has about 230,000 people.  That's just the Fargo area.  Let's not forget South Dakota, portions of Canada and Minnesota. 

The point was the people are blowing off a significant weather event just because of where it is.  It doesn't make it any less different in my mind.

  • Haha 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

12 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I love how DEN gets epic storms and cold, but torches it all away a day or two later.

If you don't like the weather in New England, move to the Rockies or Plains and wait 5 minutes.

Isn't that the saying for New England except instead of waiting 5 mins it's "wait 24 hours"?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

14 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Not sure what the temperatures are like so far this month but ... anyone else get the sense this month so far and in the models is pretty much a paragon October ?

The irony there is that we are experiencing epitome month 10 when the expense of the freak blizzards west and expanded Hadley cell exciting weird multi-phasic cyclone types pretty much in every direction SE of Long Island over the west Atlantic... both of which are pretty fantastic SD deals...

The one over the Atlantic is less appreciated and under the radar in terms of significance but that's a highly unusual look.

 

Some of us do notice actually, almost posted yesterday about the ridiculosity of the 48 hr, 850 mb projection for the N Atlantic...every feature shifted north of where it "should" be by about 1200 miles.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, adiabatic13 said:

Some of us do notice actually, almost posted yesterday about the ridiculosity of the 48 hr, 850 mb projection for the N Atlantic...every feature shifted north of where it "should" be by about 1200 miles.

Well ... heh, I also didn't mean it as a sleight-of-hand just in case.  I just wouldn't have been surprised if folks hadn't notice.  But I'm seeing this 15 billion hectare cyclone with 8 nodes trundling around inside of it but none of them are very impressive.   like what the bag is up man - 

But that alone ...the entire basin S of 40 N by maybe 40 W has easterlies..   interesting

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

One helluva bomb day 8 euro.

That two to three days should be watched actually - I mean legitimately so, not just the typical model-physical fractal bomb of the infamous D8 eye-candy, either.

That's pretty well signaled as temporally concurrent with the PNA teleconnector doing an about face and at least for a short duration ...soaring upward along a 3 or more standard deviation correction.  That usually signals something of a western ridge-eastern trough couplet with more amplitude than less to put it nicely.

Also, the MJO has been hung up and trundling around in the Phase 8-1-2 of the Wheeler chart in the models and their ensembles from both the GFS and Euro clusters for some time and that also is constructively interfering.. 

If that were not enough .. Hagibis is in the process of reminding Japan that she sticks out in the middle of TC cross-hairs like a white-supremist lost in circa 1987 Compton ... and just as that metaphor suggests, its' corpse will be completing absorption into the westerlies during the run up to those dates... I think that may be more a forcing that shows up afterward, as it will like take some time to transmit that signal's wave dynamics into the gestalt of the larger circulation over the N-NE Pac into N/A than just a week from now.  Still, I suggest the recurving in and of its self is an indication of the underlying canvas for a -WPO tendency which sets the stage really... 

Kind of fascinating to see these evolutions show up in the operational.  I mentioned to a couple few days ago that I though the 20th onward had a shot at being strikingly cooler than normal with storm threats... I don't see any compunctions in moving that up a little with the on-going suppressive tendencies of the AO we've enjoyed for so long.  If that reverses suddenly ...okay.  But just like the last positive ensemble mean, the index had to correct less on top of timing and then went back negative - I can see that doing that again... We'll see on that.  

The GFS ensemble all carry some form of amplitude through the flow D7-10.  For general weather enthusiasts its a system to watch.   It's too early to consider p-type from this range, or climate notwithstanding.

  • Like 1
  • Confused 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...