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October 2019 Weather Discussion


HoarfrostHubb
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26 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Yeah pretty much this. Until a big dog barrels through the door we casually track whatever decent event we can get. 

I'm in the minority, but I don't track something like that any more than I do a sunny day.

Its either going to rain hard and be blustery imby, or be damp and not blustery. I lean toward the latter, but couldn't care less.

No knock on those that do...I get it.

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So some wavering in the tele- mass fields.  After a three days of a more coherent signal ...we still see the Pacific paradigm shift as more possible than less, however, it is harder to determine if these recent distractions are legit or something more in typical of transition season sending red herrings - I tend to thing less the latter though. This is a time of the year when these determination methods are subjected to increased variance.. 

The MJO aspect is still interestingly stagnating in a moderate phase strength in the phase 8-1-2 region in both the Euro and GFS and their ensemble means. With the PNA at both the CDC and CPC showing a neutralization and plausible rise into positive SD after the 15th of the month ( or so .. ) that is a positively augmented signal typically enhanced when there are modeled/expectation of typhoon fluxing in the west Pacific. 

I'm still not certain which is the egg and chicken in that relationship: does the MJO lead the typhoon genesis and track ... or is there something super scope that supports both and they happen to orient at the same time... Perhaps that matters less compared to the significance of statistical correlation and now that we are getting deeper into autumn that correlation is awakening.  Higibis should enter the westerlies E-NE of Japan ..

All this spells an active pattern spreading down stream across the remainder of the N-NE Pacific and probably into N/A toward week two. 

 

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