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October 2019 Weather Discussion


HoarfrostHubb
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On 10/4/2019 at 8:59 AM, MarkO said:

My wife grew up a few houses down (East Main Rd). Her parents still live there as well as my nephew (Portsmouth FF) in the house next door.

Portsmouth FF do a great job, thank him for me.

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1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Some of the models are real nasty for mid to late week. That would be a siggy storm on some guidance. Even euro was close.

When do you think we will have a better handle on where/if this is even happening? I had plans to stay in central NH Wed-Fri, but havent booked yet.. Definitely not going up there is this is actually coming...

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1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Some of the models are real nasty for mid to late week. That would be a siggy storm on some guidance. Even euro was close.

Earthlight just posted how this is a unanimous  setup with the storm getting cut off and getting ing trapped under the block.

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36 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

When do you think we will have a better handle on where/if this is even happening? I had plans to stay in central NH Wed-Fri, but havent booked yet.. Definitely not going up there is this is actually coming...

 

23 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Earthlight just posted how this is a unanimous  setup with the storm getting cut off and getting ing trapped under the block.

We probably won’t know until tomorrow to be honest. I’d probably lean on not much impact for now, but worth watching in srn and ern areas.

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8 hours ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Oz gfs says if this was winter...

prints out 5-6” over E MA from this event alone in a 3 plus day nor-Easter 

say bye bye to folliage (leaves )

we may start to believe we will see a couple inches unless this thing corrects south next 48 hours 

0z Ukie has This a touch stronger and one heck of a fetch pointed at N NJ and east facing SNE beaches

gale winds over day’s over hundreds of miles equals beach issues 

Euro holy wave height

ecmwf_maxh_dir_ne_138.png

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56 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Gfs would be, but that seems like an outlier.

I would say right now  I’d lean cloudy and breezy /windy along coast this week w aperiod of rain Thursday and again Friday possible ..especially east 

We’ll see which way the ukie/gfs/euro lean next 36

0z euro crushes beaches from ocean city to NJ

GFS NJ/SNE

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32 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Euro holy wave height

ecmwf_maxh_dir_ne_138.png

Exactly 

fetch plus duration and gale winds equals wow.

I recall looking at the forecast fetch on Sandy of gale winds leading up to storm and knew that would be very memorable regardless the classification . This is no Sandly! (Not saying that in the least)

just that fetch is pretty much the most underrated variable in wave heights followed by duration 

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